Teddy Um

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

@Doboongkun 뭘 만들어 오신겁니까..ㄷㄷㄷ

[Doboongkun @Doboongkun]

폴리마켓 15‧5분 단기예측시장에서 돈 벌었다는 썰 보고 단타 치러 원정 떠나보신 분 있으십니까?
코인충으로서 손가락은 꽤 빠르다고 생각했는데, 봇한테 탈탈 털려서 짜증난 경험 있지 않으신가요?
"이건 봇 돌리는 거 아니면 답이 없다."로 결론을 내리고 접으셨나요, 아니면 봇으로 전쟁터에 참여하셨나요?

비슷한 고민을 하고 있는 분들을 위해 사이트를 하나 만들고 있습니다, 이름은 폴리데이터 입니다.

제가 막혀서 삽질했던 경험을 크게 3가지 지점으로 나눠서, 각각에 대응하는 서비스를 만들어 도움을 드리고자 합니다.

1️⃣ 봇 만들 엄두가 안 남. 장비가 뭐 필요하고 코드는 어떻게 짜야 하는지 기술적 지식이 없음. → 봇 메이커

2️⃣ 괜찮을 것 같은 전략은 떠오르는데, 과거 데이터가 없어서 검증을 못 해가지고 확신이 없음 → 전략 & 백테스트

3️⃣ 봇은 만들었는데, 한박자가 늦음. 실시간 데이터를 구하는 데에 어려움을 겪음. → API & 라이브 대시보드

지금 공개된 라이브 대시보드는 신뢰를 드리기 위해서 만든 페이지입니다.
봇 돌릴 때에 이런 데이터를 보고 있구나 하고 참고하거나, 이렇게 데이터를 실시간으로 수집하고 있으니까 받아서 볼만 하겠구나 생각이 드셨으면 좋겠네요.
사이트에 ms 단위로 시각적 구현하는 건 힘들어서, 실제 필요 데이터는 API로 뿌릴 예정입니다.

다음 공개할 부분은 전략&백테스트 항목입니다.
이미 엔진은 작동은 하고 있습니다.
궁금하신 분들 댓글에 한국말로 전략 테스트 해달라고 남겨 주시면 검토해보고 가능한 선에서 24H, 7D 기준으로 분석 결과 대댓글 남기겠습니다.
저도 매일 백테스트 돌리면서 새로운 전략 깎고 있는지라 이 계기로 전략 같이 스터디할 수 있으면 좋을 것 같습니다. 관련 포스팅 종종 올리겠습니다.

사이트에 추가되었으면 하는 기능이나 의견 피드백 남겨 주시면 감사하겠습니다.

👇 링크는 댓글에

[Doboongkun @Doboongkun]

Merry Christmas!
#NewProfilePic

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

@Doboongkun 선물주러 왔다가 엿만 주고 가지요

[Doboongkun @Doboongkun]

[Why Brazil at 9% is the Ultimate ‘Value Play’ for the 2026 World Cup 🇧🇷]

The 2026 World Cup might feel far away, but if you’re looking for a low-risk, high-reward "math-based" play while markets are quiet, this is it.

My strategy isn't about predicting Brazil will win the trophy—it's simply about them reaching the Quarter-finals. Mathematically, a Top 8 team should be priced around 12.5% ($100 \div 8$), yet Brazil is currently sitting at a discounted 9%.

With an 80% probability of topping their group—the second-highest after Spain—Brazil has one of the safest paths to the deep knockout stages.

The kicker? The bracket shows a likely Argentina vs. France "death match" as early as the Round of 16. When one of these giants falls, their massive win-share will be redistributed among the survivors. Buying Brazil now is essentially capturing that inevitable "share-injection" for free.

Don't overcomplicate your portfolio. Buy Brazil at 9, sell at the 12.5+ average when they hit the QFs, and enjoy a stress-free 40% return. ⚽️💰

#WorldCup2026 #Brazil #Polymarket

[Doboongkun @Doboongkun]

https://t.co/gNLmPBMmAb

[Doboongkun @Doboongkun]

[The Best Bet for Dec 31st: Locking in a 4% 'Safety Margin' with NVDA]

If you’re hunting for the ultimate play to close out the year on December 31st, I believe this is it. The chance of Nvidia (NVDA) falling out of the top two most valuable companies in the world? It’s practically zero, yet the prediction markets are mispricing this by offering a 4% safety margin.

My strategy is straightforward. Given Nvidia's absolute dominance in AI infrastructure and its monster earnings, the probability of it slipping to 3rd place or lower is negligible. This 4% premium is essentially a "free lunch" for any rational investor—a mathematical edge that’s too good to pass up.

Some might say a 4% return is small, but when you factor in the risk-adjusted return, it’s a near-perfect victory. Why lose sleep over volatile coins or speculative junk when you can bet on Nvidia’s unbreakable market position and finish the year with total peace of mind?

Let’s not overcomplicate things. Secure that 4% profit by betting on NVDA maintaining its Top 2 status. While everyone else is biting their nails over market shifts, we’ll be cashing out and enjoying a great meal on New Year’s Eve. After all, successful investing is just about playing the highest probability game.

#NVDA #Nvidia #Polymarket #SafetyMargin #YearEndStrategy

[Doboongkun @Doboongkun]

Wait, TIME Person of the Year actually gets leaked? 😵
Smells like a typical Polymarket "scam" wick, but I managed to escape before the official announcement.
Coolly secured 18% profit.
You guys(@HuobyW) were right—always have to watch out for the traps. But profit is profit. Will share the next hedging strategy soon.
#Polymarket #TIME #AI #JensenHuang #Trading

[Doboongkun @Doboongkun]

Just grabbed a small bag of "YES" on the @Polymarket event [MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by Dec 31, 2025?].

To be clear : I don't believe Saylor will actually sell.

However, BTC volatility into year-end will likely cause massive swings in mNAV. The "YES" price is currently at rock bottom. My play is to trade the volatility and exit before expiration, not to hold until the end.

⚠️Warning : This is a pure gamble with zero hedge. Do not bet the farm.

[Doboongkun @Doboongkun]

Polymarket hedge idea for Time Person of the Year.

If you buy $100 Jensen Huang YES and $100 AI YES, the payoff becomes pretty asymmetric:

If Jensen wins → $333 - $100 = $233 profit
If AI wins → $278 - $100 = $178 profit
-----------------------------------------------

2025 has one clear theme: AI.

Every part of industry, politics, and culture is being reshaped through the lens of AI, so it feels almost natural that either AI itself or its symbolic figure, Jensen Huang would end up on the TIME cover.
Back in 1982, The Computer was named Person of the Year.

Looking at that precedent, it almost feels obvious that AI could take the title this year.
But since AI isn’t technically a person, there’s always a chance TIME chooses a human figure instead, depending on internal editorial decisions.

That’s why I decided to take the hedge approach:
go long both Jensen Huang and Artificial Intelligence to lock in high-probability returns regardless of which direction TIME goes.

@Polymarket

https://t.co/Ai3OiLVxZH

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

@nexitoken FPhMemArVmoc3BY33Th3HxTYggBM7bsNnxkdiwGe3aKE

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

@Freedom_73X 사진 구라인줄 알았더니 진짜였네...

https://t.co/2514I5dM1g

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

@Alaouicapital @useTria I’m using it just fine here in Korea! The Tria Card is really great.

[Alaoui Capital @Alaouicapital]

Watching @useTria actually launch like grown-ups.

Tria's quietly building something real across multiple platforms at once.

They're building a product people might actually use. The token feels like an afterthought to the actual utility, and that's exactly how it should be..People will actually use it for daily spending, not just another token to speculate on.

[Eight @no_8_eight]

#Tria @useTria Triaのセールについて最新情報を交えて解説します📝

✅Legion @legiondotcc のKYCはパスポートが必須でしたが日本のユーザーが多いのかマイナンバー等でもKYC通せるようになりました。

Legionは1年近くKYCはパスポートのみしか受け付けてなかったのでセール開始してから対応するのはかなり異例のように感じます。

🟦Hard Capが2M USDCのところに、現在33M USDC集まっています。16倍近い申し込みがある計算になります。

Legion Nozomiで行われたセールはTriaを含めて3つで過去最高人数の2498人が既に申し込みを行っています。

LAB @LABtrade_ は317人
TEN @tenprotocol は930人

Triaはセール終了までまだ数日あるので申し込み人数は更に増えると予想されます。

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

@useTria
애플 페이가 한국에선 영 쓰질 않는거다 보니깐 진짜 불편한거 같다. 현물 카드는 시간이 많이 걸릴 것 같고 정말 혹시 삼성 페이를 뚫어주면 진짜 날아 갈 것 같은데? Tria 부탁해!!!

[Tria @useTria]

We're thrilled to announce that we've raised $12M in pre-seed and strategic funding to build the leading self-custodial neobank and payments infrastructure for humans and AI.

One platform unifying spend, trade, and earn across all chains.

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

@useTria Using Apple Pay in Korea is really inconvenient. Could you please consider supporting Samsung Pay? I’m begging you…

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

Tria crad @useTria 프리미엄으로 만들었는데 내 핸드폰이 갤럭시라 도저히 어떻게 써야할지 모르겠네요?
누가 좀 도와 주실분??? 나름 프리미엄임.

[Teddy Um @TeddyUm1]

@Doboongkun