Teddy

@Teddy_hydro

life is a balance between holding and letting go.

Ethiopia

Joined September 2021

467 Following

44 Followers

162 Posts

Teddy @Teddy_hydro

about 2 months ago

@dagmawi_belay Amhara mibal beher yelem sil alneber ende yehe seweye. Endew ye 60th generation yeteregeme

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Ethiopian Football Federation 🇪🇹 @EthiopiaFF1

about 2 months ago

Discipline matters! our players leave every locker room exactly how we found it.

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Teddy @Teddy_hydro

6 months ago

@GameoverisReal @breaking_bre Edme lik banda mehon gin aykebdem.

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The Asrat Blog

@RenaissanceDam

10 months ago

የህዳሴ ግድብ ተርባይኖችን ከ 16 ወደ 13 መቀነስ በኤሌክትሪክ መጠን ላይ ምን ለውጥ ያመጣል? How does cutting GERD's turbines from 16 to 13 really change power and energy? Pure engineering, no politics. Today, I'm not focusing on why the turbine count dropped from 16 to 13. Instead, I'm exploring how the turbine reduction can impact MW and GWH, and what that means for power and energy. I'll keep it clear: what changed, what didn't, and why. If you want the headline first, read the three lines below; if you enjoy the deeper technical story, keep going. Ultra-clear 3-line summary Power: Peak capability falls by 1,200 MW (from 6000 or 6,350 to 5,150 MW, −18.9%). In average and dry months, the plant usually runs well below that cap, so the typical operating power change is about 0%. During short wet peaks, it can be up to −18.9% versus the 16 unit case. Energy: Average and dry seasons: about 0–1% difference. In a very wet season, if the extra headroom ran for 30/60/90 days, 16 units could add about +0.86/+1.73/+2.59 TWh, which is roughly +3%/+7%/+10% of a ~26.4 TWh wet year. Flow capacity (high lake): Sixteen units can pass roughly 1,000–1,400 m³/s more through the turbines than 13; otherwise, the river, not the machine count, limits output. Note on sources (read before you compare numbers) I'm not repeating the usual "official" figures for GERD's annual energy (like 15,750 GWh or 15,250 GWh). My analysis is built from primary evidence: the design sheets, the unit layout (including low-level Units 9 and 10), control room generation snapshots from recent years, and the actual net head bands for upper vs. lower intakes. Most research papers estimate never specify those heads or use constant 130m head; without a head, you cannot connect the flow to the power correctly. That's the gap I'm filling. So this is my engineering readout from GERD's own notes and data, as I explained in my research paper. Cutting from 16 turbines (6,350 MW) to 13 turbines (5,150 MW) lowers peak power by about 1.2 GW. In average and dry years, it barely changes annual energy, because yearly output is controlled mainly by water volume and lake level, not by how many turbines you install. Extra turbines only help during short periods when the lake is high and wet season inflows are strong. In typical years, the annual energy difference between 16 and 13 turbines is about 0–1%. In an unusually wet year, the 16-unit layout could add only a few percent more. What changed, and what stayed the same • Installed capacity changed from 6,350 MW to 5,150 MW, a 1.2 GW drop in instantaneous capability. • Through turbine capacity at a high lake is lower with 13 units. With 16 units, you could pass roughly 1,000–1,400 m³/s more through the turbines. That extra "lane" only matters when the river delivers more water than 13 units can use. • Head bands, the height that gives water its push, stay within proven ranges. From the design sheets and control room views, the regular machines operate well at roughly 90–135 m net head in the normal band, and the two low-level units can still generate down to 60–65 m when the reservoir is low. • What didn't change: the physics of the site. The river delivers a specific annual volume; the reservoir raises or lowers the head. Together they set most of the yearly energy, not the difference between 13 and 16 machines. Why water, not turbine count, sets the yearly result The Blue Nile is not constant. Over a typical year, about 49–50 billion m³ of water arrives on average. GERD's live storage is about 74 billion m³ (about 1.5 years of average inflow), which lets Ethiopia shift water from the short wet months into the long dry season. Season pattern • Wet season: June–September (about 4 months). Flows surge, the lake is high, and the head is strong. • Shoulder: mainly October (sometimes part of May or November). Flows taper. • Dry season: roughly November–May (about 7 months). Inflows are low. Implication for power In the wet months, extra turbines only add value if the lake is already high and inflow exceeds what 13 units can pass. In the dry and shoulder months, storage and head matter more than machine count. This is where Units 9 and 10 are essential: they can generate at lower lake levels and keep electricity flowing deeper into the dry season. How much energy to expect in real years Benchmark outcomes (both units shown for clarity): • Average year: about 19.7 TWh (19,717 GWh), capacity factor ~44% for a 5,150 MW plant. • Wet year: up to 26.4 TWh (26,395 GWh), capacity factor ~59%. • Drought year: around 14.9 TWh (14,934 GWh), capacity factor ~33%. All of these sit well below the theoretical 45.1 TWh (45,114 GWh) ceiling of a 5,150 MW station, which is why the 16 to 13 change hardly moves annual energy in normal years. When would 16 turbines actually help? Two things must happen at once: the lake is high, and inflow plus required releases exceed what 13 turbines can pass. In that narrow wet season window, the extra three machines can turn a slice of water into electricity that 13 units might otherwise spill. A practical way to size that slice • If the extra 1.2 GW ran for about 30 days, it would add roughly 0.86 TWh (864 GWh), about 3% of a 26.4 TWh wet year (about 720 hours). • For about 60 days, about 1.73 TWh (1,728 GWh), about 7% (about 1,440 hours). • For about 90 days, about 2.59 TWh (2,592 GWh), about 10% (about 2,160 hours). In average and dry years, those conditions are rare, so the difference is near zero. Even in exceptional floods, the gain is only a few percent. What really moves the needle • Lake level and inflow dominate the yearly result. A higher head gives more energy per cubic meter; more water gives more total energy. • During floods, when the lake is full, extra turbines can capture more. • Machine count beyond what the river can feed most months barely matters for annual energy, though it does change peak output. Two quick pictures in words: turbines are taps; if the tank isn't refilled fast enough most of the year, adding more taps doesn't fill more buckets. Or think of highway lanes: more lanes help in rush hour, not at midnight. Let me assume you're asking these questions. Q1. Do fewer turbines mean less electricity? A. Most of the year, no. With 13 units, the plant still delivers roughly 19.7 TWh (19,717 GWh) in an average year, 26.4 TWh (26,395 GWh) in a wet year, and 14.9 TWh (14,934 GWh) in a drought. These are driven by water and head, not by having 16 machines on paper. Q2. Why keep 13 when 16 can handle more during floods? A. Because that extra energy arrives only during short wet peaks. The rest of the year, those extra machines would be underused. With 13 units, the average loading per running unit is higher, operation and maintenance are simpler, and annual energy in normal years is the same in practice. Q3. Will reliability suffer with fewer units? A. You lose a small amount of redundancy in percentage terms, but you still have 13 large machines and flexible dispatch. Planned maintenance and outages can be managed without undermining annual energy. Q4. Do the two low level turbines really matter? A. Yes. They are why GERD can keep generating deeper into the dry season when the reservoir is low; they protect seasonal continuity. Q5. What if the lake sits higher than usual? A. a higher head means you need less water for the same power. That helps both layouts and narrows the 13 vs. 16 gap in "missed" energy. Plain language glossary (one minute) • Installed capacity (MW): the power the station can produce at full load. • Annual energy (TWh/GWh): the electricity produced over a year. Quick conversion: 1 TWh = 1,000 GWh. • Head (m): the height difference that gives water its push; more head means more energy per cubic meter. • Capacity factor (%): actual yearly energy divided by the maximum if you ran at full power all year; shows how well machines are loaded across seasons. My Conclution • In typical years, the annual energy difference between 16 and 13 turbines is about 0–1%. • In an exceptionally wet year, if the lake stays high and the extra 1.2 GW can run for 30/60/90 days, the 16 unit layout could add about 3%/7%/10% to that year's total. • Peak power did drop by 1.2 GW, and at a high lake, the 16 unit concept could pass about 1,000–1,400 m³/s more through the turbines than the 13 unit plant. • The two low level units extend generation deeper into the dry season. That is a key reason 13 turbines still make engineering sense without a meaningful loss of yearly energy in normal conditions. #GERD #Ethiopia #Nile #Hydropower #Energy #Engineering #Infrastructure #Africa #Electricity #RenewableEnergy #BlueNile #Development #Water #PowerGeneration #EnergyTransition #CleanEnergy #MegaProjects #SustainableDevelopment #EnergyFuture #Renaissancedam

RenaissanceDam's tweet photo. የህዳሴ ግድብ ተርባይኖችን ከ 16 ወደ 13 መቀነስ በኤሌክትሪክ መጠን ላይ ምን ለውጥ ያመጣል?

How does cutting GERD's turbines from 16 to 13 really change power and energy?

Pure engineering, no politics.

Today, I'm not focusing on why the turbine count dropped from 16 to 13. Instead, I'm exploring how the turbine reduction can impact MW and GWH, and what that means for power and energy. I'll keep it clear: what changed, what didn't, and why. If you want the headline first, read the three lines below; if you enjoy the deeper technical story, keep going.

Ultra-clear 3-line summary
Power: Peak capability falls by 1,200 MW (from 6000 or 6,350 to 5,150 MW, −18.9%). In average and dry months, the plant usually runs well below that cap, so the typical operating power change is about 0%. During short wet peaks, it can be up to −18.9% versus the 16 unit case.
Energy: Average and dry seasons: about 0–1% difference. In a very wet season, if the extra headroom ran for 30/60/90 days, 16 units could add about +0.86/+1.73/+2.59 TWh, which is roughly +3%/+7%/+10% of a ~26.4 TWh wet year.
Flow capacity (high lake): Sixteen units can pass roughly 1,000–1,400 m³/s more through the turbines than 13; otherwise, the river, not the machine count, limits output.

Note on sources (read before you compare numbers)
I'm not repeating the usual "official" figures for GERD's annual energy (like 15,750 GWh or 15,250 GWh). My analysis is built from primary evidence: the design sheets, the unit layout (including low-level Units 9 and 10), control room generation snapshots from recent years, and the actual net head bands for upper vs. lower intakes. Most research papers estimate never specify those heads or use constant 130m head; without a head, you cannot connect the flow to the power correctly. That's the gap I'm filling. So this is my engineering readout from GERD's own notes and data, as I explained in my research paper.

Cutting from 16 turbines (6,350 MW) to 13 turbines (5,150 MW) lowers peak power by about 1.2 GW.
In average and dry years, it barely changes annual energy, because yearly output is controlled mainly by water volume and lake level, not by how many turbines you install. Extra turbines only help during short periods when the lake is high and wet season inflows are strong. In typical years, the annual energy difference between 16 and 13 turbines is about 0–1%. In an unusually wet year, the 16-unit layout could add only a few percent more.

What changed, and what stayed the same
• Installed capacity changed from 6,350 MW to 5,150 MW, a 1.2 GW drop in instantaneous capability.
• Through turbine capacity at a high lake is lower with 13 units. With 16 units, you could pass roughly 1,000–1,400 m³/s more through the turbines. That extra "lane" only matters when the river delivers more water than 13 units can use.
• Head bands, the height that gives water its push, stay within proven ranges. From the design sheets and control room views, the regular machines operate well at roughly 90–135 m net head in the normal band, and the two low-level units can still generate down to 60–65 m when the reservoir is low.
• What didn't change: the physics of the site. The river delivers a specific annual volume; the reservoir raises or lowers the head. Together they set most of the yearly energy, not the difference between 13 and 16 machines.

Why water, not turbine count, sets the yearly result
The Blue Nile is not constant. Over a typical year, about 49–50 billion m³ of water arrives on average. GERD's live storage is about 74 billion m³ (about 1.5 years of average inflow), which lets Ethiopia shift water from the short wet months into the long dry season.

Season pattern
• Wet season: June–September (about 4 months). Flows surge, the lake is high, and the head is strong.
• Shoulder: mainly October (sometimes part of May or November). Flows taper.
• Dry season: roughly November–May (about 7 months). Inflows are low.

Implication for power
In the wet months, extra turbines only add value if the lake is already high and inflow exceeds what 13 units can pass. In the dry and shoulder months, storage and head matter more than machine count. This is where Units 9 and 10 are essential: they can generate at lower lake levels and keep electricity flowing deeper into the dry season.

How much energy to expect in real years
Benchmark outcomes (both units shown for clarity):
• Average year: about 19.7 TWh (19,717 GWh), capacity factor ~44% for a 5,150 MW plant.
• Wet year: up to 26.4 TWh (26,395 GWh), capacity factor ~59%.
• Drought year: around 14.9 TWh (14,934 GWh), capacity factor ~33%.
All of these sit well below the theoretical 45.1 TWh (45,114 GWh) ceiling of a 5,150 MW station, which is why the 16 to 13 change hardly moves annual energy in normal years.

When would 16 turbines actually help?
Two things must happen at once: the lake is high, and inflow plus required releases exceed what 13 turbines can pass. In that narrow wet season window, the extra three machines can turn a slice of water into electricity that 13 units might otherwise spill.

A practical way to size that slice
• If the extra 1.2 GW ran for about 30 days, it would add roughly 0.86 TWh (864 GWh), about 3% of a 26.4 TWh wet year (about 720 hours).
• For about 60 days, about 1.73 TWh (1,728 GWh), about 7% (about 1,440 hours).
• For about 90 days, about 2.59 TWh (2,592 GWh), about 10% (about 2,160 hours).
In average and dry years, those conditions are rare, so the difference is near zero. Even in exceptional floods, the gain is only a few percent.

What really moves the needle
• Lake level and inflow dominate the yearly result. A higher head gives more energy per cubic meter; more water gives more total energy.
• During floods, when the lake is full, extra turbines can capture more.
• Machine count beyond what the river can feed most months barely matters for annual energy, though it does change peak output.
Two quick pictures in words: turbines are taps; if the tank isn't refilled fast enough most of the year, adding more taps doesn't fill more buckets. Or think of highway lanes: more lanes help in rush hour, not at midnight.

Let me assume you're asking these questions.
Q1. Do fewer turbines mean less electricity?
A. Most of the year, no. With 13 units, the plant still delivers roughly 19.7 TWh (19,717 GWh) in an average year, 26.4 TWh (26,395 GWh) in a wet year, and 14.9 TWh (14,934 GWh) in a drought. These are driven by water and head, not by having 16 machines on paper.

Q2. Why keep 13 when 16 can handle more during floods?
A. Because that extra energy arrives only during short wet peaks. The rest of the year, those extra machines would be underused. With 13 units, the average loading per running unit is higher, operation and maintenance are simpler, and annual energy in normal years is the same in practice.

Q3. Will reliability suffer with fewer units?
A. You lose a small amount of redundancy in percentage terms, but you still have 13 large machines and flexible dispatch. Planned maintenance and outages can be managed without undermining annual energy.

Q4. Do the two low level turbines really matter?
A. Yes. They are why GERD can keep generating deeper into the dry season when the reservoir is low; they protect seasonal continuity.

Q5. What if the lake sits higher than usual?
A. a higher head means you need less water for the same power. That helps both layouts and narrows the 13 vs. 16 gap in "missed" energy.
Plain language glossary (one minute)
• Installed capacity (MW): the power the station can produce at full load.
• Annual energy (TWh/GWh): the electricity produced over a year. Quick conversion: 1 TWh = 1,000 GWh.
• Head (m): the height difference that gives water its push; more head means more energy per cubic meter.
• Capacity factor (%): actual yearly energy divided by the maximum if you ran at full power all year; shows how well machines are loaded across seasons.

My Conclution
• In typical years, the annual energy difference between 16 and 13 turbines is about 0–1%.
• In an exceptionally wet year, if the lake stays high and the extra 1.2 GW can run for 30/60/90 days, the 16 unit layout could add about 3%/7%/10% to that year's total.
• Peak power did drop by 1.2 GW, and at a high lake, the 16 unit concept could pass about 1,000–1,400 m³/s more through the turbines than the 13 unit plant.
• The two low level units extend generation deeper into the dry season. That is a key reason 13 turbines still make engineering sense without a meaningful loss of yearly energy in normal conditions.

#GERD #Ethiopia #Nile #Hydropower #Energy #Engineering #Infrastructure #Africa #Electricity #RenewableEnergy #BlueNile #Development #Water #PowerGeneration #EnergyTransition #CleanEnergy #MegaProjects #SustainableDevelopment #EnergyFuture #Renaissancedam

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Hamido

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yes! Africa in my heart

Leadership Architect Rebuilding #Ethiopia Being Ethiopian is immortal!

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@SoldierSom26689 @HabtishGurmu By the way somali government can't control even its palace with out Ethiopia support so shut the fuck up.

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@realTrumpNewsX This guy is evil

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@trumprealparody Fuck Ukraine

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@VoiceOfTigray3 By the way be safety net yadege sew ye aymero edget wesenenet ( mekencher) selemigatemew i understand ur problem. Esti omega 3 wesedebet ekekam