Teelo

Teelo - Tennis Elo.
Custom ELO-based tennis predictions. ATP & WTA.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

The pattern is not 'clay got weird'. It is baseline confidence getting punished: median favourite ELO gap +1,222, surfaces split 19 hard / 16 clay, and the misses cluster across RG (8), Miami (6), Doha, Rome, Hamburg, Madrid and the 250s.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Lowest winner probabilities: Walton d. Medvedev 8.1%, Korda d. Alcaraz 9.4%, Baadi d. Vukic 10.1%, Cerundolo d. Sinner 10.6%, Birrell d. Pegula 11.5%, Shnaider d. Sabalenka 13.8%. That's RG, Miami, Marrakech, RG, RG, RG.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

2026's 80%+ favourite misses are not just a Roland Garros thing. Main-draw tour rows: 320 times Teelo had someone at 80%+. 285 won. The 35 misses are the accountability ledger.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

The median Grass sample in that 3000+ group is 35 matches. Ten players have 45+.
So when Wu is 3044 overall with 5 Grass matches, or Zheng is 3192 with 9, the surface number is evidence-light. Not a verdict. More like a confidence warning label.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Among 27 first grass-week entrants with 3000+ overall ELO, the Grass sample falls off fast:
Wu 5 matches
Landaluce 8
Zheng 9
Snigur 10
Kostyuk 12
Potapova/Marozsan 14
Then the next name is Munar at 22. That's the cliff.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Oldest six: Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, Cilic, Dimitrov, Carreno Busta. Ages 34y11m to 40y0m.
Same 3000+ line, completely different weight: average gap from peak is 1,145 ELO. Even the closest, Carreno Busta, is 473 off.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Current 3000+ Teelo has a clean age fork.
Youngest six: Jodar, Fonseca, Landaluce, Tien, Mensik, Prizmic. Ages 19y8m to 20y10m. Their average gap from career peak is 44 ELO; none is more than 78 off.
That is basically arrival energy.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

That's not a "bad on grass" list. It's a transfer-risk list.
Kostyuk is 3628 overall but 1219 on grass from 12 surface matches. Paul is 3876 overall and 1532 on grass. Tiafoe: 3535 and 1401.
The baseline is strong. The surface evidence is not clean.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Across the first grass-week entrant board, 27 players are 3000+ overall ELO. Biggest overall-minus-grass gaps:
Kostyuk +2409
Paul +2344
Tiafoe +2134
Davidovich Fokina +2100
Munar +2018
Good players, awkward grass file.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

That is the field-shape split.
High end: Doha ATP 75.5%, RG ATP 70.7%, AO WTA/RG WTA 70.1%.
Low end: ATX WTA 58.8%, Ostrava WTA 60.0%, Buenos Aires ATP 60.3%, Abu Dhabi WTA 60.4%, Hobart WTA 60.5%.
Not calibration. Just the board.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

2026's most spread-out Teelo board so far: Doha ATP.
Average favourite: 75.5% across 31 main-draw prediction rows. 13 were 80%+, and only 6 were below 60%.
At the other end: ATX WTA averaged 58.8%, with 21 of 31 rows below 60%.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Average favourite: grass 65.3%, RG 68.4%.
Median: 64.4 vs 68.1.
Biggest grass favourite: 84.9%; RG reached 96.0%.
That is only a board-shape read, not calibration. The grass rows are still unplayed in the DB, so no result claims yet.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Grass week looks tighter than Roland Garros, but not because the coin-flip bucket exploded.
In 46 active grass R32 predictions, Teelo has only 3 favourites at 80%+. Completed RG main draw had 41 from 218. The confidence ceiling is lower.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Barbora Krejcikova (83%) vs Renata Zarazua (17%)
This one is blunt: Krejcikova is +497 overall and +390 on grass. Zarazua has the old 2020 H2H, but the top drivers are rating and form, not the old matchup.

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Libéma Open WTA R32 board 🎾 #WTA

[Teelo @TeeloRatings]

Greet Minnen (69%) vs Janice Tjen (31%)
Tjen is actually +178 overall, which makes 69% Minnen jump out. The driver is grass context: Minnen has already won twice here and owns a 238-point grass ELO edge. Current venue reps matter.