Sam Tenenbaum

Head of Multifamily Insights, Cushman & Wakefield. All views expressed are my own

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@EllliotttB More 18-34 year olds living alone than living with roommates now according to Census data

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@jayparsons incredible

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@NewsLambert @ParlayPounder8 @jayparsons …rental housing demand. Obviously the for sale market is not doing well. That’s also a function of interest rates and prices, which have both worked to meaningfully incentivize renter housing formation rather than homeowner household formation.

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

It's not a demand issue in Austin. There's plenty of it. But even more supply than demand.

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@ParlayPounder8 @NewsLambert @jayparsons Except it didn’t! Demand for the last two years was in line with 2021. Obviously those leases are signed at lower rents but they still happened

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@NewsLambert @jayparsons Except we don’t fail to capture the positive demand and pullback. We had a huge positive demand shock in 2021 on a volume basis! It pulled back in ‘23, but we also had a positive demand shock in ‘24 and ‘25. Pretending like the MF people don’t know what they’re doing is asinine

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@NewsLambert @jayparsons And if we’re playing a game of hypotheticals, what would happen if nobody came and leased all those vacant apartments and they sat empty? How long would the recovery take then?

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@NewsLambert @jayparsons Maybe the worst take. If new renter households are moving into units in droves, what does that mean? Presumably that’s a pretty good ‘demand’ signal

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@Jason_A_Scharf Austin was definitely impressive, but Raleigh was at 2.4. Second place ain’t bad

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@jayparsons good way to highlight the dichotomy!

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@resetbasis Last two years it’s absorbed ~40k units

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@jamesrambin controversial (?) take: central market's are better

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@jayparsons Hadn't listened yet, but personally think it's more cyclical than a structural shift...there's so much debt capital out there so spreads have been bid down, hampering returns. I think we'll see some of that debt capital migrate to equity for better risk adjusted returns in 26-27

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@atxREpodcast Nah - absorption was the 3rd best in the country in 2025...it's all supply

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@TXpaintbrush @DallasAptGP @PhilipTKingston 1. essentially it measures how many more units need to be leased to bring the vacancy rate to 2019 levels. It's not perfect, but designed to give you a better sense of the recovery, especially in markets with very elevated vacancies.
2. rough guess, mid 3%s

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@TXpaintbrush @DallasAptGP @PhilipTKingston Even if you look at '17-'25 instead of just '25, the metric would be about 3/4s of a year higher. Obviously if the demand keeps up the recovery will be faster, but even if it goes back to 1/2 of '25 we'll be at '19 vacancy in ~3 yrs which prob means + rent growth in 18-24 months

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@TXpaintbrush @DallasAptGP @PhilipTKingston I can't argue that I realistically believe demand will be as strong as it's been (esp with the pipeline down significantly). This is my regular gauge around where markets are in the recovery process - ATX used to be at the top of this list, but it's now closer to the bottom.

[Sam Tenenbaum @TenenbaumCRE]

@TXpaintbrush @DallasAptGP @PhilipTKingston Not saying the market is fine, just that it inflected. ATX has one of the highest vacancy rates in the country. But 5k deliveries in a 300k+ unit market (pre pandemic it was a 200k market so 10k was much more significant) is not much when the market has absorbed 20k/y in 24 & 25