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I trade from a literal tent.
Not a metaphor. Not a gimmick. Just a guy trying to make sense of markets — one chart, one trade, one mistake at a time.
This is my story. 👇
Hiç bitmeyen aptallıklardan birisi bugün yaşanan yükselişleri dotcom balonuna benzetmek.
Görsel en geniş endeks fonu olan olan MSCI’ın dotcom krizindeki davranışını bugünle karşılaştırıyor.
Bugünkü yükselişler şirketlerin geleceğe yönelik karlılık artışlarının altında kalıyor. Şirketler göreceli olarak ucuzluyorlar.
Dotcom krizinde değerlemeler şirketlerin gerçek performansıyla ilişkiyi tamamen kesmişti.
Lakin anlatamazsın ki.
Çekiç her gördüğünü çivi sanır.
TEPAV: Giyim, tekstil ve deride yıllık istihdam kaybı 128 bine yaklaştı
TEPAV’ın şubat ayına ilişkin 'İstihdam İzleme Bülteni’ne göre, giyim, tekstil ve deri imalatında toplam istihdam kaybı 127 bin 736’ya ulaştı
İstihdam artışında bina inşaatı öne çıkarken son altı ayda ücretli çalışan sayısındaki en sert daralma Antalya, Muğla ve İzmir’de görüldü
The world is using more US Dollars than ever:
Offshore US Dollar deposits held in banks outside the US are up to a record ~$14.5 trillion.
This is +220% more than the ~$4.5 trillion held at the beginning of the century.
By comparison, only ~$3.5 trillion worth of euros are held in offshore banks, outside the Eurozone.
And, the Fed and domestic commercial banks hold over $19.0 trillion.
This means offshore US Dollar deposits are now equivalent to~43% of US domestic bank deposits, with no other currency coming close to this percentage.
Global demand for USD is incredibly high.
🚨 MAJOR UPDATE:
After almost 3 months of holding, I sold a portion of my OIH position right here.
We bought it before the war even started.
All you had to do was pay attention.
If you want to know what I’m buying next, turn on notifications before it’s too late.
BREAKING: The US Federal Reserve is now no longer expected to cut interest rates until December 2027.
There is now a 51% chance of an interest rate HIKE by March 2027.
Rate HIKES are now more likely than rate CUTS.
How did we end up here?
$UNH
Institutions stayed invested in $UNH in spite of the share price drop from $600 to $250
If your average is between $260-$280 now
You have a better average than Buffett in $UNH and substantially better than institutions
Retail has the ability to outperform institutions
BREAKING: Stellantis, $STLA, is taking a $26 billion hit and writing down their electric vehicle business.
The stock has collapsed on the news, now down -27% today.
@GoldForecast The earnings report showed good growth in production and revenue, mainly due to the Kolpa acquisition and higher metal prices; however, the company’s net loss deepened significantly due to ramp-up losses at Terronera, higher costs, derivative losses, acquisition-related expenses
SLV ETF important comments
In the last 2 days 17.7 million shares have been created and approximately 16 million silver ounces will be delivered into the iShares Silver Trust.
This activity has increased the shares available to borrow and also lowered the borrowing fee to short shares. Magically, this occurred at a time with higher lease rates and elevated EFP spreads. Where did this metal come from? Why did tightness (via spreads) develop if this amount of inventory was available for delivery?
These ETFs are a business whereby the industry (market makers, authorized participants) profit and manage inventory for their benefit. IMO, the investor becomes the product allowing the industry to profit from the flow of capital. Institutional managers, hedge funds, high net worth investors, and retail investors are lured to these commodity ETFs (derivatives) by the promise of liquidity and ease of trading.
In reality, the management of these vehicles can impact and influence the markets they represent.
Stress still shows up within these markets but the pocket books of the industry participants aka banks, broker dealers, market makers, etc have the unique ability to avoid these pressures which a normal market participant may not. The ability to borrow, lend, leverage, and utilize spreads and derivatives to their (Industry) benefit and at will with enormous sums of capital smooths the playing field for their benefit.
This post is not investment advice and is intended to awaken investors to the differences of investing in a representation of price (ETF) versus direct ownership of a physical commodity.