@xiaowang1984@aniruddh_mohan I think people are willing to pay for redundancy up to a point. So in that case it becomes do I pay for grid interconnection or a 2nd turbine?
This back and forth on whether a futures curve represents a price forecast/expectation makes it abundantly clear why it is still possible to extract alpha from these markets.
@RichardMeyerDC@Rory_Johnston Sure but backwardation is just saying, "If you can hold off on consuming today, you'll get a discount." But just because July oil futures are cheaper than April doesn't mean the market thinks oil will be cheaper in July. The curve doesn't tell you when the backwardation breaks.
@RichardMeyerDC@Rory_Johnston No, it isn't. In fact the definition of Contango/Backwardation hinges on the difference between futures prices and expected future spot prices.