Mike Harrington

Just a man from Atlanta sharing his political thoughts with the world

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@Urban8845 @DjsokeSpeaking Collins, absolutely yes. Jackson, toss-up but the race would lean KLB if the electorate stays close to or similar to the way it is today. Other statewide races I'd say are tilt-Dem probably

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx I agree it'll be narrow but only because I feel any non-incumbent won't win by more than 1-3%. I'm still struggling to see who these Dem-leaning split-ticket voters would be, especially hearing the NPR interviews with Marietta voters who are all said they're straight-ticketing

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx Yeah and those rural congressional districts look ghastly. But maybe all these split-ticket voters in suburban and urban ATL I keep hearing the media talk about will compensate for the rurals lacking so much 🙃🙃

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@DjsokeSpeaking I don't think I can point to a single county on this map and say that's good for Rick Jackson right now. Maybe Cherokee and Forsyth but even those areas have pockets of Dem voters that I would bet are turning out more while the Rural parts are less

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@NumanHaocyc @emarion1234 @xHaustedOfStats @DjsokeSpeaking The dashboard stopped updating around 2pm and only started updating again around 8pm EST so there was a lot of votes rolling in later in the evening. Most of the afternoon was stuck at 65k votes and now we're at 116k for Saturday's totals

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@DjsokeSpeaking Maybe I'm over-simplifying this but Kamala only lost GA by ~2% with abysmal EV splits between White-Black voters. And I just don't see many Black-Metro ATL Dems/Dem-leaning Indies voting Ossoff-Jackson so at what point does Jackson start sweating bullets?

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@Jon__KoA @Socdem_Michael He definitely will. And even in 2022 the majority of people who split their ticket were GOP who hated Walker. I don't think there's many Dems/Dem-Indies who think that poorly of KLB to do the same especially with Ossoff on the ballot who is endorsing and appearing with her

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx The fact that non-ATL youth white voters more than doubled Metro ATL white youth and he still only won them by 9% makes me think KLB will be fine and do much better with them. I've yet to find any data that looks good for Jackson yet honestly

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

If talking about KLB's tenure as mayor was effective Jackson would be 10 points ahead with all the ads and mailers he puts out. At some point rural GOP voters need to hear why they should leave their houses at all to vote for him and Collins and Trump fails to do even that

[Greg Bluestein @bluestein]

Trump says he doesn’t “want to waste a lot of time” talking up Rick Jackson, instead attacking Keisha Lance Bottoms’ record as Atlanta mayor. “If Mike Collins and Rick Jackson aren’t elected, it will never ever come back,” he says of the city. “It’s never going to come back. These people are, I sort of think, they're stupid.”

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@GabrielSterling @GabrielSterling Any chance the dashboard will be updated today or by tomorrow morning possibly?

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@DjsokeSpeaking @BradForGASOS @GaSecofState The White vote was already at 47% and dropping so maybe they couldn't stand to see it anymore

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@Anon9453161626 @DjsokeSpeaking With two weeks of EV data we can see clearer patterns of who's voters are turning out more, what % are new voters, and where turnout is lagging compared to this time in past elections. Right now White Georgia voters aren't turning out as much and Black/Minority voters are

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@chikenlover420 @DjsokeSpeaking Overall pretty good. Provided this weekend increases the Black vote share Rick Jackson has to pray for insane White turnout next week or massive persuasion in Metro ATL to win

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@reesetheone1 She doesn't need 29-30 if the electorate is less White. Those margins assume that White voters make up >60% of the electorate and as of right now they're not likely to hit that. If turnout stays continues the way it is then she can get away from 26-28%

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@AmarionWx I was gonna say McLaurin would be the strongest because White Male Dem in a blue wave year would just have it easier but Tanya is definitely fighting the hardest and wouldn't be surprised

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@joshuawx_ I still see several Burt Jones signs in Cumming and Buford. Also that big Burt Jones sign on 400 was up for the longest time even after the primary

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@jclapinid @DjsokeSpeaking It always drops off. This has historically always been the week of EV with the highest % of White voters. The fact that the Black vote % has still overperformed each day while the White vote has underperformed is still a very good thing if you're Georgia Dems

[Mike Harrington @TerrellHarrin20]

@StrongRanger579 @DjsokeSpeaking Even if White/Black voters match their 2022 numbers from here on out the electorate this would still be a less White electorate than both 2022 and 2024. They'd have to overperform now. Also given rural white turnout is lagging Jackson still wouldn't be safe unless that improves