Kris R.

An “average-joe” retail investor, building out my Tesla Investment Thesis & taking you along for the ride. Long #TSLA stock since 2017.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

My $TSLA 2030 (conservative) Base Case Price Target = $1.219

Here's a thread detailing my assumptions in this model.

Feedback and different perspectives are more than welcome!

Enjoy, Kris😎

[Daniel Priestley @DanielPriestley]

Genuinely, socialism is the best sounding system.

It makes perfect sense for a society to work together to elevate the living standards of everyone together.

It makes sense that if someone builds something of enormous value, we accept that it was inevitable that it would have been created at some point and that it was society as a whole that went into the discovery.

It seems fair that we would all accept that people have vastly different abilities that yield very different commercial value. How unfair that the person who is naturally good at negotiating a roll-up acquisition strategy is wildly more rewarded than the nurse who returns someone to health or who allows someone to die with dignity.

Honestly, I see it. I understand it.

The issue is that we are primates running on ancient software. We don’t do stuff for the collective good, we do stuff for our kids.

The person who strives for an A on the exam doesn’t study if the grades are equalised. The entrepreneur doesn’t start the company when half the rewards are redistributed to those who didn’t - even though they couldn’t.

We’re happy sharing to an extent but we’re not content to put it all in the pot. We’re happy to help those who clearly cannot survive on their own but we’re not happy supporting those who don’t want to work or who struggle to get motivated or focused.

Socialism is the smartest system but it doesn’t actually work and has never worked. Really smart people like socialism because they can see how much better society could be … if only it worked.

Even John Lennon kept the royalties to Imagine. His heirs will never need to work again from that one song alone. If he truly believed what he was saying, he would declare that it belongs to “all the people living for today”.

Capitalists accept human nature. We know there is a better way but we know it’s out of reach. We understand that if you can harness self interest in a pro-social way you will lift living standards enormously. The restaurant owner will feed the village not because it’s good for society but because it’s good for his kids… either way the village is fed. John Lennon will write uplifting songs … but only if he owns the rights.

The most important part about capitalism isn’t that it’s better - it’s not. It’s that it actually works in the real world.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@TeslaBoomerMama @BoBbyPleWniaK Okay, I appreciate you not knowing an exact ratio to commit to, but I think this is the exact thing most people are looking for the answer to.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@TeslaBoomerMama @BoBbyPleWniaK I read it, but it gives nothing concrete, I think that’s why I (& others are) are still confused about where your heads at in this discussion. Let me rephrase: Given your proposed triangulated method of calculations, what minimum ratio do you think is fair for $TSLA investors?

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@TeslaBoomerMama @BoBbyPleWniaK Most of your posts popping up in my feed have revolved around a future potential merger, not so much about Tesla itself. Question: You argue various points about how a potential deal could become fair for $TSLA holders, but at what actual prices do you think fairness is achieved?

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

👀

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

In the future, a trillion times a trillion dollars will be spent on making antimatter to travel to other star systems

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@farzyness No, just NO!

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@MobofJoggers But you are missing a key point, because the valuation of each company in a potential merger deal matters a whole bunch! $10k invested early in TSLA at $5 per share vs $10k invested at €100, is a difference of over €700.000 at current valuation.

[Osman Sarood @osarood]

My thoughts around Tesla and SpaceX and the imminent merger. Would love to hear your thoughts $tsla $spcx

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@osarood Very well put, this is the exact discussion that should be had right now, a merger of course makes sense, but ONLY at the right valuations, and at the current market valuations, any attempt to justify a deal towards $TSLA investors would require a lot of smoke and mirrors.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@DoctorJack16 I foresee that the fear mongering about Elon’s loss of interest in Tesla, if the majority declines the deal, will be sky high, and that alone could force a yes vote, even though the deal doesn’t favor $TSLA investors.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@DoctorJack16 I read it, but in all honesty, I don’t get it, I get the concept, but I don’t see how that will materialise in reality. This is what scares me a bit, that everyone thinks this will be a great deal, until the deal/vote hits, and that point there may not be an option to decline.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@DoctorJack16 Humanity we can agree on, but it may not be optimal for $TSLA investors, we have to agree that the best thing for $TSLA investors is a merger at the lowest $SPCX valuation possible, price in this regards matters a lot.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@DoctorJack16 I appreciate the perspective, not sure I agree. More important for Elon, than Tesla investors, is his level of control in the joint company. And this is not to make him sound like a “bad guy”, that’s just far more important to him, due to the variety of risks he foresees.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@DoctorJack16 True it will take time, but if the announcement is quick, at what stage does that impact the calculated valuation (merger price) of each company?
(Could an announcement not keep SPCX price artificially high until merger, as that would be in the interest of SPCX investors)

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@DoctorJack16 Great, I’m all for the SPCX price normalising post IPO, definitely not against a merger, I have just seen people on X pushing the idea of doing this quick, and that doesn’t seem to favor TSLA investors.

[Tesla North America @tesla_na]

A Model Y driver started experiencing a medical emergency with chest pain mid-drive & called his son.

His son then remotely rerouted the car – which had FSD Supervised enabled – to the nearest hospital & let them know the vehicle was en route. ER staff were standing by on arrival.

Doctors later confirmed the quick reroute likely saved his life.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@Micro2Macr0 @elonmusk One could argue he is trying to run up the SPCX price as much as possible to get a better deal (e.g. more control) in a soon to be announced Tesla merger…just a thought.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@DarkDeeM @Everman Whether short or long term, price matters! If you had $10.000 & managed to buy $TSLA back in the day for $5 vs if you bought it later at $100 (with the same $10k, the difference of your holding today would be ~$760.000…so price matters a lot, regardless of timeline.

[Kris R. @Tesla_Evolution]

@EmmetPeppers Will announcing this now, not be more in spcx investors favour than TSLA investors? The point being, spcx is riding on a hype wave, and will benefit from what may prove to be a short term artificially high multiple. Let me know what I am missing here?