PJM’s own white paper says it out loud:
“We are transitioning from an era of managing surplus to an era of managing scarcity — one that is projected to persist for a decade or more.”
Their last capacity auction cleared 6,600 MW short of the reliability target.
$vst
@Bashir_Rzayev $vst ppa deals are well above market prices. PJM capacity prices increased 10x the last 3 years. June’s auction will break more records if not capped. 2027/28 will see the brunt of $vst edibta expansion due to the PPAs kicking in and hedges dropping off.
Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG ($3.925B–$4.725B)
•Low: $3,925M ÷ 338.55M = ~$11.59/share
•Mid: $4,325M ÷ 338.55M = ~$12.77/share
•High: $4,725M ÷ 338.55M = ~$13.96/share
This will do it! No meta $$ or new gas $$ in these numbers yet for $vst
Still think $vst is a 2027/28 story. I don’t think earnings will do much since everything is hedged this year. Waiting till Cogentrix closes and $vst raises guidance. Then $8.5 billion 2027 EBITDA