Holy shit! Jeremy Grantham & Joe Kernen were insulting each other live on the air about Bitcoin and the stock market bubble 😮
This is the type of arrogance you see when markets go vertical and people believe "This time is different" + "Markets will go up forever"
Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.
You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.
The whole point was the rules.
The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.
After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.
For 23 years, those rules held.
Then SpaceX filed for IPO.
And the rules changed.
The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.
Except the rules used to say they didn't.
Here's the thought exercise:
If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?
Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.
A rule binds the rule-maker.
A guideline binds the saver.
You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.
Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:
Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.
This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.
Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.
The rules built to protect passive investors:
1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.
2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.
3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.
All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.
Buffett and Terry Smith agree on one thing:
FCF/share is king.
It measures how much cash a business generates for each shareholder.
Here are 6 modern-day FCF/share compounding machines:
1) ServiceNow – $NOW:
I am 100% behind Devin Booker here. Last night was not a good look for our league. Let me be clear, we didn’t lose because of officiating, but that doesn’t make last night any less important. If the referees are going to demand respect from the players - as they should - then the players should demand respect from the referees. When a referee is missing calls and clearly disrespecting the players, almost mocking them, they must be held accountable. Nobody who loves this game enjoyed watching that last night. They want to see the players compete at the highest level. The league needs be far more aggressive about this kind of thing. All players and all fans deserve it.
🚨#BREAKING: Watch incredible footage captured from passengers on an airliner above Florida, showing the exact moment the Artemis II mission lifts off carrying four astronauts on its journey around the Moon as they make history
Anthropic accidentally leaked their entire source code yesterday. What happened next is one of the most insane stories in tech history.
> Anthropic pushed a software update for Claude Code at 4AM.
> A debugging file was accidentally bundled inside it.
> That file contained 512,000 lines of their proprietary source code.
> A researcher named Chaofan Shou spotted it within minutes and posted the download link on X.
> 21 million people have seen the thread.
> The entire codebase was downloaded, copied and mirrored across GitHub before Anthropic's team had even woken up.
> Anthropic pulled the package and started firing DMCA takedowns at every repo hosting it.
> That's when a Korean developer named Sigrid Jin woke up at 4AM to his phone blowing up.
> He is the most active Claude Code user in the world with the Wall Street Journal reporting he personally used 25 billion tokens last year.
> His girlfriend was worried he'd get sued just for having the code on his machine.
> So he did what any engineer would do.
> He rewrote the entire thing in Python from scratch before sunrise.
> Called it claw-code and Pushed it to GitHub.
> A Python rewrite is a new creative work. DMCA can't touch it.
> The repo hit 30,000 stars faster than any repository in GitHub history.
> He wasn't satisfied. He started rewriting it again in Rust.
> It now has 49,000 stars and 56,000 forks.
> Someone mirrored the original to a decentralised platform with one message, "will never be taken down."
> The code is now permanent. Anthropic cannot get it back.
Anthropic built a system called Undercover Mode specifically to stop Claude from leaking internal secrets. Then they leaked their own source code themselves. You cannot make this up.
This is tough to defend
Joseph Schwartz was convicted of a $39M healthcare fraud and sentenced to 36-months in prison
His nursing home empire collapsed and he didn't pay over 15,000 employees
After serving 3 months in prison, Schwartz was pardon by President Trump and his obligation to pay $5 million in restitution to the government was erased
It's reported that Schwartz paid $1M to lobby the White House to influence their decision
$1.5 BILLION. Let me say it again - a $1.5 BILLION BET.
Bigger than any futures purchases made at the time.
5 minutes before Trump's post.
Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer?
This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption.
If we renamed the Department of Defense to the Department of War @DeptofWar, why didn’t we also rename the Dept. of @ENERGY to The Department of Physics, Energy & Nuclear Weaponry?
It would at last be honest.
[‘Atomic Energy’ is the old 1946 prettification for Nuclear Weapons.]