My Unofficial 2025 Hurricane Season ๐
๐ข 15-17 Named Storms
๐ต 8-10 Hurricanes
๐ด 3-5 Major Hurricanes
๐ก ACE: 140-170
This year, I'm calling a slightly above average season due to neutral ENSO conditions. The Atlantic will still be favorable for tropical development.
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This is going to be incredibly meaty.
We have the storms, they have the meats!
Super Typhoon #Sinlaku continues it's trek towards the Mariana Islands as a powerful category 5. #Guam looks to miss the worst impacts but #Saipan might get a direct hit on Tuesday.
Super Typhoon #Sinlaku is officially at Category 5 intensity with winds of 170 mph and pressure of 902 mb. I can see Sinlaku getting a bit stronger before internal structural changes begin to take affect. Thank you JTWC for giving Sinlaku it's proper intensity.
Super Typhoon #Sinlaku ๐ฒ๐ฒ this is why the Western Pacific is the undisputed king of the tropics. This will hit Category 5 at some point. The Mariana Islands, Guam and Saipan need to brace themselves.
This is classic text book look on a future Super Typhoon ๐ #Sinlaku could become the second Category 5 of 2026 after Cyclone Horacio back in February in the SW Indian Ocean. Guam and the Mariana Islands needs to watch Sinlaku very closely.
BREAKING - Passengers on an American flight from Atlanta to Puerto Rico captured one of the closest videos of the Artemis II launch from their plane, and itโs going massively viral, with some commenters expressing concern about how close the plane was to the rocket.
Folks have very strong reactions to being in a strong hurricane. And this drives them to make quantitative estimates that have no rational basis. I've seen survivors of LAURA, IDA, and IAN (all Cat 4s at landfall) *swear* they were in a Cat 5 because they "saw" Cat-5 winds. (I've been in 84 hurricanes and even I don't feel qualified to visually estimate wind speed.) And even when a storm is rated Cat 5 and the strongest landfall on record (!!), that won't satisfy everyone. For example, today a MELISSA survivor disagreed with the NHC analysis because she "saw zinc, trees and houses flying [at] way more than 300 kph [~185 mph]." It seems a storm's categorizationโno matter how superlativeโwill always leave some survivors feeling dissatisfied, probably because a simple number, categorization, or scale rating can't do justice to their trauma. It's an interesting psychological phenomenon that I see again and after these big events.
Hurricane Melissa got upgraded to 190 mph from post hurricane analysis. This makes me her the strongest hurricane alongside side with Allen(1980) in terms of wind in the Atlantic Basin. ๐ฌ๐ฌ
Hopefully El Nino goes into full gear during the heart of this season ๐
I gotta say, this Nor'Easter is pretty incredible on satellite. Basically a Category 2 hurricane in terms of pressure in the 960s mb. Over 2 feet of snow along the coast ๐ฌ๐ฌ
#blizzard2026