The denial is the story: Trump says deal, Tehran says no deal — twice in an hour. And the physical tape never de-escalated: zero tanker crossings on Jul 27 (Windward), a tanker hit by a projectile Saturday morning, Qatar's first LNG crossing in 3 weeks. Trade the strait's ship counts, not the statements. $XOM $USO
@BenTalksStocks PLTR printed 306% EPS growth and still slid 6% into its report — this market grades on expectations, not numbers. AMD's bar got lowered by July's unwind, which is exactly why Tuesday is interesting. $AMD $PLTR
That gigawatts-to-revenue line is the whole ballgame. The tell from Asia this week: SK Hynix and Samsung both rallied 25%+ off the memory floor — HBM orders re-accelerating usually means the server buildout is real. Tuesday's datacenter guide decides whether July's unwind was emotion or information. $AMD
AMD reports Tuesday. The line that decides it: server CPUs.
The tell from Asia: SK Hynix and Samsung both rallied 25%+ off the memory floor.
July's chip unwind meets its first big test — the pre-earnings brief:
$AMD $NVDA $AVGO $QQQ
Ray Calloway's Session Prep — crude's $84.67 pivot, gold's $4,100 line, the S&P's 7,450 hold, and why the first hour is for tourists:
https://t.co/aMC18WOJNo
$SPY $QQQ $GLD
Futures reopen in MINUTES.
Trump's Iran pause vs. a tanker that still took a projectile Saturday. The war premium unwind starts at 6 PM ET — and one Hormuz headline kills it.
My desk's full session map, levels and the AMD trade for Tuesday:
$SPY $QQQ $GLD $AMD $XOM
The full Sunday briefing — what the pause means for the war premium, the Hormuz tape, and Monday's open:
https://t.co/kLa2DQU7EA
$XOM $CVX $LMT $RTX $GLD
BREAKING: Trump says he's holding off on 'massive' new Iran attacks — hours after drones were intercepted over Kuwait and a tanker took a projectile in Hormuz.
Friday's war premium unwinds at Sunday's 6 PM futures open. The trader's map:
$XOM $CVX $LMT $AMD $SPY $GLD
OVERNIGHT:
• Kuwait intercepts Iranian drones
• Tanker hit in Strait of Hormuz
• CBS: US-Israel weighed huge strikes on Iran's energy grid — maybe THIS weekend
• Tehran: retaliation plan "ready"
Oil +3.8%. VIX 15.99.
Sunday's futures open will be a movie.
Cook's last call. Apple and Amazon report after the bell tonight with the market at all-time highs.
What matters, what doesn't, and the levels we're watching:
https://t.co/eYIe4B5lUB
The Fed held rates but the vote was 9-3. Three voters wanted a HIKE.
September is now live. Today's Session Prep maps the GDP/PCE morning, the Meta gap-fade, and the memory rout trade.
https://t.co/ZjbhXowUv9
9-3. The most hawkish Fed split in years - and almost nobody is positioned for it.
Full breakdown of the dissent and what it means for September:
https://t.co/lwxtj7B2QQ
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Newmont just reported $2.2 billion in quarterly earnings.
During a quarter when gold fell 13%.
Most people assume mining company earnings fall in lockstep with the metal price.
Here is why that assumption is wrong.
Gold averaged well above $4,000 for the entire quarter — even during the decline. Newmont's cost to mine gold is fixed around $1,000-1,700 per ounce depending on the site.
A 13% drop in gold price still leaves an enormous margin between the metal price and the cost of production.
$2.2 billion in net income is not a coincidence. It is the direct result of operating leverage: fixed costs against a metal price that, even after falling, remains multiples above what it costs to extract.
Gold fell 13% in the quarter.
Newmont still generated $2.2 billion.
That gap is the entire investment thesis for owning miners instead of just the metal.
$NEM $AEM $KGC $B
The financial media is telling you the precious metals trade is “done.”
They’re dead wrong.
While spot prices pull back, miner profit margins are wider than ever. We just watched companies post $2,555 margins PER OUNCE in Q1—a literal printing press.
The market is treating these companies like gold is going back to $2,500. They’re operating like it’s going to $5,000.
One of those views is wrong. I know which one I’m betting on.
We just published our newest issue breaking down the "Great Mining Disconnect," including my free Top 15 Ranked Watchlist to trade the spread.
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$GDX $GDXJ $GMIN $K92 $AEM