Marcus Grant, CFTe

Technical Analyst & Trader | Free Substack - A systematic weekly read: Market Temperature, ETF sector/theme rotation, and my trades/watchlist. NFA.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

The Market Temperature Model - Every week, before I look at a single chart, I check the temperature of the market. 12 indicators, 4 pillars, one number between 0 and 10. I've written up how it works and what 18 years of data says about it.
https://t.co/OBbrfW72A0

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

https://t.co/9XaKYBnhOn

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Market Temperature for last week: 3.7, down from 5.0 - falling from the Goldilocks Zone straight into High Risk for the first time since the March correction.

The Tape/Trend and Regime pillars were responsible for nearly the entire decline, with $SPY and $QQQ both dropping out of Strong Uptrends. The $VIX rising to 20.0 offset some of the fall.

Full note in the first reply ��

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

GICS sector relative strength vs $SPY, as of Friday's close:

10 of the 11 sectors outperformed SPY - tech $XLK was the only one that didn't and remains in Weakening.

Staples $XLP, energy $XLE and health care $XLV led, with energy and health care the only two sectors in Leading. Materials $XLB and communications $XLC moved from Lagging into Improving.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Top 20 ETFs by RS-Momentum vs $SPY for last week - 10 of the 20 are new again, and Bitcoin $IBIT takes number 1 and has the longest streak on the board at 9 weeks.

Out: tech - cybersecurity $CIBR, software $IGV, equal-weight software $XSW, internet $FDN, FANG+ $FNGS and digital infrastructure $IDGT - plus China $KWEB $FXI, natural gas $UNG and broad commodities $DBC.

In: the VIX $VIXY, equal-weight staples $RSPS, retail $XRT, water resources $PHO, equal-weight consumer discretionary $RSPD, India $INDA, the UK $EWU, crude $USO, equal-weight energy $RSPG and Ethereum $ETHA.

The board has a risk-off look, with Anti-Beta $BTAL at number 3 and $VIXY at number 5.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Trend states across the 121 ETFs I track, as of Friday's close: Strong Uptrends fell from 29 to 8, and none of them are tech.

The 8: energy $XLE $XOP $USO, broad commodities $DBC, health care $XLV $RSPH, the US dollar $UUP and Brazil $EWZ.

Equal-weight semis $XSD, generative AI $CHAT and AI innovation $BAI went straight from Strong Uptrends to Downtrends in a single week.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

https://t.co/sIKk8f5GLo

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Market Temperature edges up to 5.0 from 4.9 - back in the Goldilocks Zone after one week in Cautious.

$SPY and $QQQ both made record weekly closes.

Breadth ticked higher for the first time in 8 weeks and bond volatility $MOVE eased to 98.5 from 107.3. The dollar $UUP is still the biggest drag.

Full note, including my new trades, in the first reply 👇

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

GICS sector relative strength vs $SPY, as of Friday's close:

Health care $XLV went straight from Lagging to Leading, joining energy $XLE as the only sectors there. Technology $XLK slipped into Weakening.

Tech and industrials $XLI were the only two to finish last week lower, while utilities $XLU, staples $XLP, energy and health care led - slightly unusual with $SPY and $QQQ both at record weekly closes.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Top 20 ETFs by RS-Momentum vs $SPY for last week - 12 of the 20 are new again.

Out: semis and AI hardware - semis $SMH, generative AI $CHAT, AI innovation $BAI, tech $XLK and equal-weight tech $RSPT - plus Ethereum $ETHA after 7 straight weeks at number 1.

In: internet $FDN, equal-weight software $XSW, FANG+ $FNGS, health care $XLV $RSPH $IHI, staples $XLP, natural gas $UNG, China $KWEB $FXI, AI power & utilities $UTES and digital infrastructure $IDGT.

Brazil $EWZ takes number 1, and Bitcoin $IBIT now holds the longest streak on its own at 8 weeks.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Trend states across the 121 ETFs I track, as of Friday's close: uptrend states rose and Strong Downtrends fell, but downtrend states still outnumber uptrend states.

Energy $XLE $XOP $RSPG, broad commodities $DBC, Brazil $EWZ, equal-weight software $XSW, equal-weight health care $RSPH and large-cap biotech $IBB all moved up into Strong Uptrends.

Bitcoin $IBIT and Ethereum $ETHA slipped back to Uptrend.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Market Temperature for last week: 4.9, down from 5.0 and back in the Cautious Zone after one week in Goldilocks.

The Monetary/Macro pillar was responsible for all the fall - mostly due to the US dollar, with $UUP up 2.9% against its 4-week comparison. The $MOVE index also rose to 107.3 from 96.0.

Full note on Substack - link in bio

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

GICS sector relative strength vs $SPY, as of Friday's close:

Only technology $XLK and energy $XLE are in Leading, with energy moving back in from Weakening.

Health care $XLV and communications $XLC both fell into Lagging, leaving 9 of the 11 sectors there.

Technology, energy and utilities $XLU were the only sectors to finish last week higher.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Top 20 ETFs by RS-Momentum vs $SPY for last week - 10 of the 20 are new again.

Out: the mega-caps and Nasdaq names - FANG+ $FNGS, the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ and the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 $QQEW.

In: semis $SMH, generative AI $CHAT and equal-weight tech $RSPT, all back for the first time since June, plus energy $XOP $XLE, Brazil $EWZ and Japan $EWJ. Anti-Beta $BTAL and the US dollar $UUP are back too.

Ethereum $ETHA holds number 1 for a 7th straight week, sharing the longest streak on the board with Bitcoin $IBIT at 7 weeks.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Trend states across the 121 ETFs I track, as of Friday's close: downtrend states now outnumber uptrend states by a wide margin.

Financials led the moves lower last week - $XLF, equal-weight financials $RSPF, banks $KBE and insurance $KIE all slipped from Neutral into Downtrends. Health care $XLV dropped from a Strong Uptrend straight to Neutral, and the gold and silver miners $GDX $SIL fell from Recovering Uptrends into Recovering Downtrends.

Going the other way, equal-weight semis $XSD, Bitcoin $IBIT and Ethereum $ETHA moved up into Strong Uptrends, as their SMAs returned to bullish alignment.

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

@Mr_Derivatives

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

https://t.co/2a5P9KLBjM

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

The Market Temperature just made it back into the Goldilocks Zone at 5.0, up from 4.5 last weekend.

$SPY moving back into a Strong Uptrend and its weekly RSI rising to 63.2 did a lot of the lifting.

However, breadth deteriorated again - only 30.2% of US stocks finished above their 50-day moving average, from 34.0% last weekend and 39.7% two weeks ago.

And bond volatility jumped - the MOVE index went to 96.0 from 80.6, while the VIX barely moved.

The rotation back into tech showed up across my boards last week.

10 of the 20 on the Momentum Leaderboard are new, and they're almost all tech and growth - $QQQ, $XLK, equal-weight semis $XSD and cloud computing $FCLD among them.

Full note in the first reply 👇

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

https://t.co/2n6d3qeYOw

[Marcus Grant, CFTe @TheChartEdge]

Market Temperature drops to 4.8 - now in the Cautious Zone after 5 weeks in Goldilocks.

Strong Uptrends across my 121-ETF universe halved from 34 to 16 last week - $SPY and $QQQ both fell one state to Uptrend.

New arrivals on the Momentum Leaderboard signal risk-off this weekend: Anti-Beta $BTAL, the US dollar $UUP, and short Treasuries $SHY all joined the board.

Only 19 ETFs finished green last week, and 7 were tech and AI related - $XSD, $SMH, $IDGT, $DTCR, $GRID and $XLK among them.

On the industry breadth leading stocks board, semiconductors jumped from 20th to 8th in a single week, with $MU, $MRVL, $ANET and $KEYS among the names finishing last week in Strong Uptrends.

Full note in the first reply 👇