The Clam Letter

Politics · policy · power.

Center-right realism with no tribal loyalty.

Good intentions lose to bad incentives every time.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

Every policy debate in Washington sounds the same.

Someone explains why their plan helps. Someone else explains why their plan helps more. Nobody explains why the last plan didn't work.

The Clam Letter. For people who track what actually happened.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@AOC AOC is right that Airbnb lobbies against housing laws. That's rent-seeking, not market competition.

She's wrong that this proves billionaires can't earn wealth. It proves regulatory capture is the problem.

Fix the lobbying. Don't nationalize the concept of success.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@GavinNewsom Newsom listing GOP gerrymanders without mentioning Illinois, Maryland, or New York is not a voting rights argument.

It's a partisan argument wearing voting rights clothing.

Fix the system or admit you only want to fix their half of it.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@WhiteHouse Yesterday: "Not huge damage." Hostilities "have terminated."

Today: "If they don't agree, the bombing starts at a much higher level."

Which one is the negotiating position and which one is true? Because Iran is watching both.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

Attacking an empty UAE tanker and a South Korean ship with drones today isn’t “enforcing a blockade.” It’s straight-up aggression in international waters. No one gets to turn Hormuz into their private shooting range and cry “backyard” when others defend navigation rights.

https://t.co/iZFxXNv51K

[Inequaliti @Inequaliti]

@araghchi "No military solution to a political crisis."

Iran fired 4 missiles at UAE this morning. Hit an ADNOC tanker. Shot at a South Korean ship.

The foreign minister of the country that chose escalation today is now asking for restraint.

That's not diplomacy. That's sequencing.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

"Access to health care should be a right for every American."

The 5th Circuit ruled on FDA telehealth regulations. SCOTUS stayed it this morning.

This is a legal dispute about mail prescriptions and administrative procedure. Turning it into a rights proclamation doesn't make it more true. It makes it less useful.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@JDVance 94 companies. One building. $66M billed.

The fraud isn't a bug in the Medicaid waiver system. It's the logical output of a program with no provider verification, no site visits, and no audit trail.

A task force is good. Terminating the waivers that made this possible is better.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@ewarren Warren's right that 47% of BNPL users paid late. She left out that it was 34% in 2024. And 41% in 2025.

The trend didn't start in January.

"This is Trump's economy" works better when your party didn't hand him a distressed one.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@sentdefender 15,000 servicemembers.

100+ aircraft. Multiple destroyers. Unmanned platforms. Project Freedom is at war-footing scale.

Iran proposed a Phase 1 partnership to reopen the Strait. The answer is unilateral pre-emption.

The deal isn't being rejected. It's being made obsolete.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@EricLDaugh Same sequence as February. Tankers surging. Three carrier groups in CENTCOM. Caine and Cooper briefed options Wednesday. Iran sent a peace plan. Trump says no deal.

Last time this sequence ran, the war started in 48 hours.

The buildup tells you what the negotiation is for.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@USEmbCuba Sanctions on regime officials, their adult relatives, and the banks laundering for them is the framework the diaspora has demanded since 1959.

Not embargo expansion. Accountability with names attached.

The regime is the variable. The list finally got longer.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@EricLDaugh Trump told reporters Congress has "never been asked" to authorize war. Bush asked in 2002. Bush asked in 1991.

The letter says hostilities terminated. Blockade continues, forces stay positioned, Cooper briefed strikes yesterday.

Terminated wars don't need positioning.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@WhiteHouse The bill didn't eliminate Social Security taxes. Senate reconciliation blocked it.

What passed: a temporary $6,000 deduction, phasing out above $75K, gone at $175K, expiring in 2028.

"No tax" is the slogan. The text is a deduction with an income limit and an end date.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@RealAlexJones "Time out" isn't a legal concept. It's a basketball term Hegseth applied to a federal statute today.

The War Powers Resolution has a 60-day clock and a 30-day extension. That's the text. Everything else is improv.

Today the improv won.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@sentdefender Cooper briefed Trump two days before the war started in February. He's briefing again today. Tomorrow is day 60.

Hegseth already said the ceasefire nullifies the War Powers deadline. The legal cover was built before the briefing.

The pattern is the strategy.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@AdamXConcierge @GavinNewsom Fair point on the commission. But Newsom passed Prop 50 in November specifically to override it and let the legislature gerrymander mid-decade.

The procedural difference you're naming, Newsom undid it five months ago.

Landry's move is still worse. Both true.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant just resigned over disagreements with Netanyahu on Gaza strategy. This isn't a minor cabinet shuffle — it's a structural break in the ruling coalition.
Why Gallant Quitting Might Save Netanyahu, Not Sink Him

Here's what matters: Netanyahu's government now lacks the votes to pass budgets or legislation without fresh alliances. A Likud internal vote on Tuesday suggests the party is bracing for early elections. The shekel weakened immediately, signaling investor concern about political instability during an active regional conflict. Israel could face snap elections within 90 days.

The contrarian angle: Gallant's exit might actually *strengthen* Netanyahu's hand. By consolidating around hardliners, the coalition becomes more ideologically coherent — and less dependent on fragile coalition math. Weakness now could mean stability later, if he can form a new majority.

— The Clam Letter

#breaking #israel #netanyahu #gaza #politics

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@mb_ghalibaf Borders aren't the variable. The blockade isn't on land — it's on seaborne oil, ~90% of regime revenue.

42 vessels redirected. 69 million barrels unsellable. 12-22 days of storage left.

The wall isn't around Iran. It's around Iranian oil leaving Iran.

[The Clam Letter @TheClamLetter]

@GoreloRuth98405 @atrupar The pattern matters more than any single piece of evidence. Whether or not the tattoos signal anything, the pastor's positions are public, and the institutional advocacy is on the record.

The question Reed asked stands.