🇦🇺Australia recovered strongly from the COVID-19 storm, but growth is now slowing as financial conditions tighten. Monetary policy will need to remain restrictive to manage inflation. Labour market pressures are expected to ease.
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Fabulous news on inflation - the free fall continues.
Inflation - monthly data - has fallen from a peak of 8.4% in Dec 2022 to 5.4% in June 2023:
Quarterly, the 0.8% rise is around 3.25% annualised with further falls certain.
RBA has over-egged the rate hikes.
My Two MInute Take
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This will be a responsible Budget for Australians doing it tough. It has been carefully calibrated so that it takes the pressure off the cost of living rather than adding to it #Budget2023#auspol#ausecon
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The RBA who today said the cash rate needed to be hiked to 3.85% in May and may need to be hiked further is the same one who said, 18 months ago, the cash rate would be 0.10% till at least 2024.
Wages growth is as soggy as a microwaved meat pie.
Annualised wages growth in the last 2 quarters is 3.25% down from 4% in the prior 2 quarters. The 3.7% YY wages growth is the peak in this cycle.
The RBA has over-egged its rate hikes.
My Two Minute Take