Tonight's model card. 2 plays off the projections.
Commanders v Seahawks: away moneyline at -200 (FanDuel), 13.3% edge, 2.0u
Steelers v Bengals: away moneyline at -132 (Caesars), 8.1% edge, 1.3u
Results always, winners and losers both.
Tonight's model card. 1 play off the projections. Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels.
Jp Crawford over 0.5 batting RBI at +370 (Ballybet), 10.4% edge, 0.4u
Results always, winners and losers both.
@pardonmypick Home teams get more ticky tack calls in the fourth quarter of one score games, so if the number already has Denver favored the whistle and the market are pricing the same lean twice.
@allinkid Every review under two minutes takes longer than the possession that triggered it, and the live under is still standing there acting like nothing happened.
Tonight's model card. 2 plays off the projections.
Braves v Phillies: under 1.5 spread at -125 (BetRivers), 2.4% edge, 0.4u
Texans v Cowboys: home moneyline at -122 (FanDuel), 0.6% edge, 0.1u
Results always, winners and losers both.
@ToddFuhrman PI props are the one market where the book is betting you don't know the backup's usage rate, and it works often enough that they keep offering it.
@grantcohn If the timeline is that firm, any market pricing him back inside three weeks is betting against the medical literature, not just the beat writer.
@xEP_Network Five straight games clearing the line by at least half a catch and the book hasn't moved off 5.5. That gap doesn't usually last through the weekend.
@theaceofspaeder Leadoff Harper is a lineup change, not a market signal, but if it happens the book has to move his prop numbers before it can update the total, and that gap is where the price is stale.
@BallparkPal The AL West and NL West winners are getting decided by four teams playing at once, and two of them only need something to go wrong for someone else. That is a scoreboard-watching night, not a betting one.
@PropHolliday If the personnel shift is real and public info, the market has probably not moved the props to match yet, that gap is the whole trade not the usage note itself.