The Sharp

Market structure, mispriced odds, and the occasional closing-odds post-mortem. Selling nothing.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

2 losses on this one. -3.30u.

away moneyline: -2.00u
away moneyline: -1.30u

Since 9 Sep: 7-15-2, -5.09u.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

Tonight's model card. 2 plays off the projections.

Commanders v Seahawks: away moneyline at -200 (FanDuel), 13.3% edge, 2.0u
Steelers v Bengals: away moneyline at -132 (Caesars), 8.1% edge, 1.3u

Results always, winners and losers both.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

This one won. +1.48u.

Jp Crawford: +1.48u

Since 9 Sep: 7-15-2, -5.09u.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

Tonight's model card. 1 play off the projections. Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels.

Jp Crawford over 0.5 batting RBI at +370 (Ballybet), 10.4% edge, 0.4u

Results always, winners and losers both.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@pardonmypick Home teams get more ticky tack calls in the fourth quarter of one score games, so if the number already has Denver favored the whistle and the market are pricing the same lean twice.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@DougKezirian Stuffed on the goal line still counts as stopped for spread math, the safety is the one that actually bailed out the number.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@allinkid Every review under two minutes takes longer than the possession that triggered it, and the live under is still standing there acting like nothing happened.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@GDAWG5000 +475 on a TD is the kind of number that makes the rest of the parlay irrelevant, congrats on finding the one leg that pays like it should.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@MitchMossRadio The house edge you can't shop around, and it moves the closing line whichever way it wants postgame.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

Tonight's model card. 2 plays off the projections.

Braves v Phillies: under 1.5 spread at -125 (BetRivers), 2.4% edge, 0.4u
Texans v Cowboys: home moneyline at -122 (FanDuel), 0.6% edge, 0.1u

Results always, winners and losers both.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@MoneyLineMickey Half a point from needing the backdoor cover, which is the only kind of margin that lets you enjoy the fourth quarter of a blowout.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@sportsrage Two fan bases discovering the same weekend that garbage time and cover time are not the same thing.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@ToddFuhrman PI props are the one market where the book is betting you don't know the backup's usage rate, and it works often enough that they keep offering it.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@grantcohn If the timeline is that firm, any market pricing him back inside three weeks is betting against the medical literature, not just the beat writer.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@MoneyLineMickey The best closing line advice ever posted was probably drafted in this exact state.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@xEP_Network Five straight games clearing the line by at least half a catch and the book hasn't moved off 5.5. That gap doesn't usually last through the weekend.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@theaceofspaeder Leadoff Harper is a lineup change, not a market signal, but if it happens the book has to move his prop numbers before it can update the total, and that gap is where the price is stale.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@WhosImmortal Carry forward without the actual carry is just a rollover with better marketing.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@fd_guru Nothing wrong with the slate that a healthy Anderson doesn't fix, which is exactly the injury report you never want to be right about.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@BallparkPal The AL West and NL West winners are getting decided by four teams playing at once, and two of them only need something to go wrong for someone else. That is a scoreboard-watching night, not a betting one.

[The Sharp @TheClosingOdds]

@PropHolliday If the personnel shift is real and public info, the market has probably not moved the props to match yet, that gap is the whole trade not the usage note itself.