Good mernin and happy Saturday my little nuggets. π₯°π₯°
A really complicated weather scenario will unfold this weekend and going into Monday. It's stressing me the hell out, but I will do my best to splain the situation and tell you what we're dealing with. Here we go: π
Today: Snow showers will spread from WSW to ENE across the mountains getting to the continental divide by 3pm. Any rain/snow that's able to spill off the foothills will likely do so in southern Colorado along and south of Highway 50 going over the Raton Mesa between 3pm and MIDNIGHT. Snur will continue in the mountains overnight Saturday and into Sunday; heaviest in the central and northern mountains.
Sunday: This is where Dennis Rodman & Marilyn Manson get together, somehow have kids, and shit just gets super weird, and complicated. π
The storm on Saturday moves into western Kansas by Sunday morning and slams on the breaks. This storm comes into play again later. I'll splain in a second. π
Meanwhile, our second storm system moves into Wyoming and Colorado from the northwest. Snow increases in coverage and intensity across most mountain locations along and west of the continental divide by Sunday afternoon at 3pm.
By 5pm Sunday evening, the high resolution forecast models with support from some of the global ensembles are showing these two storm phasing together in some capacity.
Now, here's where the forecast has a TON of variability associated with it. If you look at my handy dandy graphic, I have outlined in my red oval circle shape thingy what is called the deformation zone. It is the northern/western periphery of the storm circulation (from Saturday that stalled in western Kansas) where precipitation rates in the atmosphere are enhanced due to stretching. Much like wringing out a sponge. Wherever this deformation zone sets up is where we can expect rain/snow to develop starting as early as 5pm Sunday evening.
The last couple of runs of the NAM-Nest, the NAM-12k, and the HRRR have shifted this deformation zone a little bit to the north and quite a bit to the west.
What does that mean?
That means Sunday evening, overnight, and into Monday morning, there is potential for rain/snow or wet snow to impact the Cheyenne Ridge, Nebraska panhandle, northeast Colorado along I-76, and the Palmer Divide between Denver and Colorado Springs as well as the Raton Mesa between Pueblo and Trinidad/Raton Pass.
Northern Colorado between Denver and Cheyenne outside of a few hit/miss rain & snow showers would be dry due to downsloping as strong northerly winds pick up substantially Sunday night. This downsloping would also impact El Paso/Lincoln County as well as the donut hole in Pueblo County.
What I'll be looking for today (Saturday) is run to run forecast model consistency with this solution. What I'll also be looking for is whether the models backtrack on this solution and shift the storm/deformation zone farther towards the east which would significantly reduce precipitation in SE Wyoming, and along I-25 where it isn't downsloping. Another thing I'll be looking for is storm strength. One of the biggest discrepancies I'm seeing between the global models and the high resolution models is storm strength. The global models like the EURO and GFS keep the storm fairly disorganized and weaker while most of the High resolution models have better organization and a stronger storm.
My gut is leaning somewhere in the middle. So, here's the summary so far:
- Saturday looks pretty decent if you're not in the mountains. A few showers later in the day mainly in southern Colorado and along I-80 west of Laramie. That storm gets into western Kansas overnight Saturday and parks itself there going into Sunday.
Good mernin and happy Thursday my early risers, night owls, insomniacs, and neuro spicy besties.
The weather pattern is going to change and become more active starting today and going into Thanksgiving week!
Let me splain:
Today: The wind will absolutely crank above 8,000 feet in the foothills, along the continental divide, and southern Wyoming where gusts to could top 75mph through NOON, and then diminish somewhat with the passage of a cold front later today.
Elsewhere: sporadic gusts up to 35mph are possible along the I-25 corridor and eastern plains as well as SE Wyoming and the Nebrasky panhandle. Best chance of scattered rain showers will be found in northern Colorado along the Cheyenne Ridge.
Saturday - Monday: A very complex scenario with lots of moving parts. It's Dennis Rodman complicated with a splash of spicy.
A storm system will move out of the four corners and into Colorado on Saturday. It'll spread snur from west to east across the mountains. By late afternoon/evening as the storm emerges out of the mountains, scattered rain showers and isolated thunder boomies are possible across portions of the I-25 corridor and eastern plains.
This storm system will slam on the breaks and form a closed low somewhere over western Kansas during the day on Sunday.
Sunday: Behind this storm system under northwest flow aloft will be another storm system moving into the Great Basin out of the Pacific Northwest. Snow, locally heavy at times should be expected in the central and northern mountains as well as southern Wyoming especially west of Laramie. Light to moderate snowfall Sunday will ramp up and become heavy Sunday night through early Monday afternoon.
Now, this is where things get Marilyn Manson complicated. These two storm systems will try and phase together in some capacity during the day on Monday which will subsequently strengthen the storm. Now, exactly where the storm tracks, and undergoes strengthening is where a lot of the uncertainty remains.
The most likely scenario under northwest flow is heavy snur in the mountains with a period of rain/snow likely along the front range & eastern plains Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with the cold frontal passage wrapping up early Monday morning as downsloping NW winds strengthen behind the cold front.
Rain/snow showers will likely linger across far eastern Colorado/western Kansas through the day on Monday along with very windy conditions.
**NOW, if the storm decides to slam on the breaks sooner, undergoes cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado, and phases together with the storm behind it sooner, then we have to consider the possibility of more significant impacts in Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebrasky.** - This particular scenario has a very low probability of taking place, but I can't completely rule it out, mmkay?
Thanksgiving: Appears dry, for now. The caveat is that all of the global models with ensemble support are showing a strong cold front approaching from the north which would bring much colder temperatures, and a shot of snur for just about everybody.
As is usually the case when we're forecasting a week out, there's lots of questions I still need to answer. There are timing discrepancies, temperature bias, and a wide range of potential snowfall accumulation possibilities depending on which forecast model you look at. So, I kindly ask you for your patience, and grace while I sort this sht out, mmkay? ππ
Just had an officer at the door saying he was looking for a man with one eye.
I told him to use both and he'd probably find him a lot quicker. ππ
Ugh don't delete me.
Thank you to the The Krafting Home Team - Realty One Group Fourpoints, to The Rusty Melon, Erie, and to Note CBD for sponsoring this update! #COwx #WYwx #NEwx #Forecast #Update
Happening within the past hour Pro-Hamas supporters block off highway 295 in New York after the leader of Hamas calls for A Global Day of Jihad tomorrow on Friday the 13th.
Prepare yourselves for anything.... arm yourself.
Las Vegas police have arrested a man in the deadly 1996 drive-by shooting of Tupac Shakur, a long-awaited break in a case that has frustrated investigators and fascinated the public. https://t.co/etTnK3sYZm