The Defence Watch

Covering global defence, conflicts, and strategic developments.
International military news | Security | Geopolitics

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇺🇸🇻🇪President Trump on the Venezuelan oil:
We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in and spend billions of dollars to fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.

We’re ready to stage a second and much larger attack if needed.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇺🇸🇻🇪President Trump:
The American armada remains poised in position, and the United States retains all military options until U.S. demands are fully met and satisfied.

All political and military figures in Venezuela should understand this: what happened to Maduro can happen to them, and it will happen to them if they aren't fair—even to their own people.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇺🇲💪🇻🇪🗣️"There is no other country on Earth that can carry out such a maneuver. I was watching all this as if I were watching a television show. It was an amazing thing." - Donald Trump.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

‼️‼️🇺🇦👊🇧🇾🇨🇳BIG NEWS

In Crimea, Ukrainian forces destroyed an occupier-owned, Belarusian–Chinese–produced Polonez 301-mm multiple launch rocket system, which is also capable of launching Chinese B-200 operational-tactical missiles.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇺🇲‼️🇷🇺🇮🇷🇨🇳🇰🇵 Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea must remember that provoking the United States is not acceptable.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

‼️ 🇺🇸💥🇻🇪 BREAKING: Initial reports indicate that the US Marine Corps has launched an amphibious assault operation north of Caracas. Further details are still emerging.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇵🇷🇺🇸🇻🇪 A squadron of 12 F-22 fighters were spotted at Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico. They conducted combat air patrol over Venezuela last night.

The MC-130J likely provided air refueling for the helicopters of the 160th SOAR.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

‼️‼️‼️🇺🇲🇻🇪 BREAKING - CNN named three scenarios for the development of events in Venezuela following US strikes.

According to the TV channel, there are currently three main scenarios in the country — ranging from constitutional transfer of power to a military coup.

▪️ The first option is formally legal. In the case of the "absolute absence of the president," power passes to Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who must call new elections within 30 days. The winner will receive a full 6-year presidential term.

▪️ The second scenario involves the complete collapse of the regime: its main figures resign or leave the country. CNN names Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia — a 2024 election candidate currently living in exile in Spain — as the most likely transitional leader. He is supported by opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado.

▪️ The third and worst option is the seizure of power by military force. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez has already made a stern statement following the American strikes and promised resistance in the event of the presence of foreign military forces.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇺🇦 Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Andriy Hnatov:

🔹 A military document has been agreed with the United States, consisting of four sections and annexes. All of these sections address how support for Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be implemented, including supply, recovery, and modernization; how compliance with the agreements will be monitored; and what form and type of response will follow in cases where violations of the ceasefire agreement are identified by either side.

🔹 Similar work is also underway with other partner countries. One of the sections concerns the activities of the “coalition of decision-makers,” including issues related to contingents.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇻🇪Caracas — this is what La Carlota Air Base looks like, which U.S. Air Force aircraft actively bombed at dawn.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

‼️🇺🇲🇩🇪 Venezuela | This is the view toward the Port of La Guaira following the attacks carried out early this morning.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇺🇸🇻🇪 “Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been formally indicted in the Southern District of New York.

Nicolas Maduro has been charged with conspiracy to commit narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, possession of automatic weapons and explosive devices, as well as conspiracy to possess automatic weapons and explosive devices against the United States.

They will soon face the full severity of American justice—on American soil, in American courts.

On behalf of the U.S. Department of Justice, I would like to thank President Trump for his courageous stance in demanding accountability on behalf of the American people, and to extend special thanks to our brave military personnel who carried out this extraordinary and highly successful operation to apprehend these two alleged international narcotics traffickers,” said U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

‼️‼️‼️🇻🇪🇺🇲 BREAKING - Thousands of Venezuelans are waking up and celebrating the news of Communist dictator Maduro being captured by US forces.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

‼️‼️🇺🇸❌🇻🇪Trump approved the operation to capture Maduro a few days ago, and his location was tracked by CIA agents, - CNN.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇺🇸👊🇻🇪🔥 In Venezuela, at the La Carlota Air Base, a Russian-made Buk-M2E surface-to-air missile system destroyed by U.S. aviation.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

‼️🇺🇸💥🇻🇪Reports emerging from Caracas indicate U.S. airstrikes have successfully neutralized key military aviation assets at La Carlota airbase (within the capital) and Higuerote Airport (just east of Caracas), with secondary explosions suggesting strikes on ammunition or fuel depots.

If confirmed, this precision degradation of Venezuelan air capabilities—without apparent ground seizure—marks a significant escalation in Operation Southern Spear, but one calibrated to avoid the pitfalls of prolonged occupation.

Strategic logic:
Control of air resupply is indeed pivotal in any coercive campaign against a regime like Maduro's. Russia's failed Hostomel gambit in 2022 highlighted the risks of contested airborne assaults aimed at rapid seizure; by contrast, standoff strikes that crater runways, destroy parked aircraft, and interdict logistics can achieve similar denial effects with far lower exposure. A "disabled" airport achieves much of the same isolation as a "held" one—preventing regime reinforcement, elite evacuation, or external resupply (e.g., rumored Iranian or Russian materiel)—while minimizing U.S. casualties and political blowback.

Broader implications:
This shifts the balance toward sustained pressure rather than decisive decapitation. Maduro's forces retain ground mobility, but degraded airlift severely constrains rapid response to internal unrest or coastal threats.
It signals to regional actors (Colombia, Brazil) that Washington is willing to enforce red lines on narco-terrorism designations without full invasion.

Risk: Overreach could galvanize Chavista hardliners or invite asymmetric retaliation (cyber, proxy migration surges). Underreach preserves Maduro's core control, prolonging the standoff.

The pivotal question now: Does this air denial campaign force meaningful concessions (e.g., verified elections, exile deals), or does it harden regime entrenchment and invite great-power balancing from Moscow/Tehran/Beijing?
Early days, but the asymmetry favors disciplined escalation over all-or-nothing gambles. History rarely rewards the latter in Latin America.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

‼️ 🇺🇸💥🇻🇪 BREAKING: Initial reports indicate that the US Marine Corps has launched an amphibious assault operation north of Caracas. Further details are still emerging.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🚨🇺🇸💥🇻🇪BREAKING | US military strikes continue against Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Caracas, Venezuela. Explosions light up the capital.
🔥 Freedom for Venezuela is on the horizon!

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇻🇪🛢️Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at about 303 billion barrels, mostly concentrated in the Orinoco Belt.

🔹 However, due to sanctions and faulty infrastructure, the extraction rate is much lower than its potential. Additionally, the high costs of processing heavy oil limit exports and revenues despite the gigantic reserves.

😈 Meanwhile, dictator Maduro is already on American soil... The aforementioned economic factors have often been cited as the main reason for US interests.

[The Defence Watch @TheDefencewt]

🇻🇪 Venezuela’s Minister of the Interior, Diosdado Cabello:

📌 “Trust the authorities and remain calm. Do not give in to despair and do not assist the enemy. This is not our first battle — we have faced attacks before and we have endured. Above any individual stands an organized people who understand what must be done.”

📌 “There is complete calm inside the country. They (the Americans) attempted this [operation] and may have believed the people would emerge defeated, but that is not the case.”