adimas eko prasetyo

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

X pertemukan saya dengan orang yang paham betul proses pendaftaran smp negeri buat anak yang orangtuanya berdomisili dki tapi asal sekolahnya di luar DKI..

[Bagus P. Perdana @BagusPerdana_]

The Obituary, As Usual, Is Premature. (Read the Plumbing, not the Panic!)

As @Cheytax_1 flagged, X timeline suddenly thick with Macro Reads, most engineered for Doom Bait, distorting proper signal. Every twelve years Indonesia is declared finished. 1998. 2013. Now 2026. The reading is reliably wrong, this is not a default event. Hardly. It is a Market Premia Repricing, made uglier by improper Govt Navigation.
But should capable hands of Jakarta wake up, easily Passable. For the time now that it is not, we read, we positioned. Below :

The Premises :
Jakarta would remain Logical and Current, all tools at their potent disposal (Yes Even Cutting Expenses is a tool)

Exchange Rates, and Real Rate Differential. Is means of shock absorbing. Even measured depreciation is preferrable to exhausting import cover ratio. Coming out of the shock, cycle begin anew. Business as usual, Indo was operating under this macro anchor. In SMI era.

Picture 1 - The Gravitational Field
Picture 2 - The Pragmatic Opportunity

3 year forward 10Y USD swap rate at 4.2% sits a hair below the 4.4% post 2013Taper peak meaning the market priced higher for longer not as a cycle but as new resting heart rate of dollar liquidity. For Indonesia this matters in every rupiah of sovereign refinancing, every dollar of corporate rollover, every BI reserve calculation now lives under a permanent ~150bp uplift in the global riskfree rate versus the 2010s. The "free money" world that incubated Indonesia's foreign-investor SBN share is gone, 14% presence now to the peak of 39,% back then. the forwards say it is not coming back any soon.

EM/US fair value gap at +1.3%, but Indonesia having wider premia asked is with reason. IndoGB is generously priced versus fair value, because fair value itself has deteriorated: fiscal trajectory, capital account outflow, reserve drawdown, and BI that held 4.75% since October not out of conviction while defending through FX. The carry is real. Our "fair value" anchor moves.

The dissonance and finance plumbing :

Onshore INDOGB Comrades, Favor belly of the curve, not long end. The fiscal supply is structural; The 5-7Y sector gives most of the carry.
Timing.

optionality on BI's reaction function. If BI hikes 25bp next week, another 25-50bp post fuel hikes. front end shall reprice and IndoGB curve bear flattens, Position for the curve shape.

Three rules for this cycle.
One: do not confuse repricing with default.
Two: do not confuse fiscal drift with collapse.
Three: do not confuse a noisy timeline with a thesis. Jakarta has tools, history, and capable hands waiting to be used. Onshore, we earn the carry, shorten the duration, and wait for the curve to do the work. Pragmatism is alpha when everyone else is selling doom poetry.

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

Lhttps://youtube.com/shorts/P4fZX25Sd_U?si=NM_WQbas9EcPrmu9

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

apa salahnya shodaqoh mengharap imbalan yg berlipat ganda dari Allah ?? "Perumpamaan orang yang menginfakkan hartanya di jalan Allah seperti sebutir biji yang menumbuhkan tujuh tangkai, pada setiap tangkai ada seratus biji..." (Q.S. Al-Baqarah:261)
salah kalo ngarep dr Manusia

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@__Sridiana_3va menyedihkan ya ... pohon ada bendera yg bergambar hrs , pohonnya ditebang, coba ada partai yg kadernya korupsi dana bansos, ga "ditebang" sekalian masee... lebih benci sama hrs nampaknya drpada sama koruptor .. situ dirugiin apa sih sama hrs itu ?

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@_ekokuntadhi situ mas @_ekokuntadhi yg suka bikin rusuh ... wkwkwk

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@_ekokuntadhi audit aja ... jangan pilih pilih ...
MUI terpapar terORisme..AUDIT
partai terpapar korupsi ...AUDIT
lembaga yg katanya oknum anggotanya pasok senjata ke KKB papua ... diaudit juga ga ya mas @_ekokuntadhi ??

ini klo di-TWK kira2 pada lulus ga ya mas @_ekokuntadhi ?

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@FerdinandHaean3

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@_ekokuntadhi kalo kader dari partai yang nilep dana bansos , terus minta "diakhiri penderitaannya" ada ga mas @_ekokuntadhi ?
jangan munafik lah .. selalu ada org ga bener di tiap kumpulan.

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@sinaga_osman @AyaniMel dalam segala aspek mas , termasuk hubungan suami istri ... dari bangun tidur sampe tidur lagi .... drpada salah, mending nanya kan

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@FerdinandHaean3 ga dibaca sih beritanya, pokoknya asal taliban ...

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@_ekokuntadhi say bukan PKS...anak saya masuk SDIT, anak saya ngga pernah diajarkan yg mengarah intoleransi ... dan anak saya NORMAL .... ngomong aja lu ...!!! insyaAllah semoga anak saya ngga jadi kayak anda mas @_ekokuntadhi yg tidak toleran dan tidak normal ...

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@_ekokuntadhi @Arul70848368 mandi hadas dulu mas....

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@Bkriswin1 @_ekokuntadhi eheheh ... cuma mau kasih tau aja ada kebiadaban lain di negeri sendiri....biasanya mas @_ekokuntadhi n the gang kan ga seneng tuh ngomenin negara orang ...

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@ASeparatism @_ekokuntadhi lha kurang biadab apa ...mensos ngentit bansos...

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@Dennysiregar7 kasian bang ... inponya harta negara disikat sama presidennya , jahat ya

[adimas eko prasetyo @TheDims]

@Dennysiregar7 oohh ... beneran ada covid ya bang ... kirain hoax dari pihak binatang aja kek abang bilang ya