Don Poly

The Don of on-chain odds. I follow the money before the news on Polymarket.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

5 big football bets since September from one Polymarket account:

Fiorentina to win, Real Sociedad to win, Rennes to win, Hoffenheim to win, Marseille NOT to win.

$1.74M staked. 5 out of 5. $3.22M paid out. +$1.48M.

All-time on Polymarket? Still -$392K.

One hot streak doesn't make a winner. 🎩

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

@Caneleo55 @Polymarket @williamlegate @dubdotco Insane wow

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

gm to every polymarket user

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Alon is the baddest CEO the space have right know.
Sharing a scam with his account, then delete the post.
Doing like nothing happened.
I hope people start to open eyes.
Maybe one day they will realise how bad Pumpfun is for the ecosystem

[alon @a1lon9]

You have less than 48 hours to sign up for the $2,500,000 Pumpfun Squads trading competition.

Reminder of rules and eligibility:

- First place wins $1.5M, second place wins $750K, and third place wins $250K
- You have until Monday 2pm UTC to sign up; if your squad hasn't signed up by then, you'll be sidelined
- All squad members must be in the squad before Monday 2pm UTC
- Perps PNL does not count toward this competition
- Pumpfun app, Pumpfun web, and Terminal are the only platforms where PNL counts toward the competition - reach out to a Pumpfun/Terminal affiliate if you need any help setting up!
- We will closely monitor the leaderboard for any attempts to game the competition and will punish offenders

This is a HUGE competition, do not miss out.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

@a1lon9 Fuck pumpfun everyday

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

A Polymarket account was created at 02:34 UTC on Oct 23.

20 minutes later, its first bet: $132,432 on "Democrats control the House after the 2026 midterms", at 93c.

Then 7 small bets ($998 to $5,626) on Senate, House and governor races.

Brand-new wallet, six figures, day one. Conviction or a whale hiding? 🎩

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

lmaooooo what a comeback from Memphis, the odds went to 6% on Polymarket 🤣🤣

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

imagine betting 600k for 8% and then seeing you're team throwing that game, 76ers looks pretty strong this year.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

$1.13M lost on the Cavaliers in one night.

Before tip-off, one account bet $526,692 on Cleveland at 45c.
At 92%, with the game "over", another one bet $598,834 at 91c. In 2 minutes.

The 76ers came back. Cavaliers went to 0%.

Both lost everything. "Safe" was never safe. 🎩

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

@XenyPM Yes i agree, NA could never beat LPL seed 2

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

$1.13M lost on the Cavaliers in one night.

Before tip-off, one account bet $526,692 on Cleveland at 45c.
At 92%, with the game "over", another one bet $598,834 at 91c. In 2 minutes.

The 76ers came back. Cavaliers went to 0%.

Both lost everything. "Safe" was never safe. 🎩

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Riot suspends TLNP support. I checked all 625 Polymarket markets on TLNP games this year. Whatever happened, the money wasn’t placed on Polymarket

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Do you think I can find something on chain about it? I’m gonna analyse every TLNP markets on polymarket and see if I find something suspect there.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

@anyone_market bro, getting limit bet, lost 5k stealed from @rollbit, the fact the trade of everyone aren’t public, the quality of polymarket live bet. It’s a big hedge to start betting there when you are an experienced bettor. Easy to track EV+ traders true. I see only advantage with them.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Most people still don't get what Polymarket and prediction markets changed.

With a bookie:
- they set the odds
- they limit you when you win
- they suspend the market right before the thing you saw coming

On a prediction market:
- an open order book
- you trade against people, not the house
- you can cash out any time

There is still a lot of room to grow here.

And everything is on-chain. So when someone knows before the news, you can see it.

That's what I'll be watching.
Still many opportunities, we are so early.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Day 9 since I started to use Polymarket x Claude code.
I developed some nice tools already, but I’m waiting to make more test before sharing more deep research articles on my account.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Most people still don't get what Polymarket and prediction markets changed.

With a bookie:
- they set the odds
- they limit you when you win
- they suspend the market right before the thing you saw coming

On a prediction market:
- an open order book
- you trade against people, not the house
- you can cash out any time

There is still a lot of room to grow here.

And everything is on-chain. So when someone knows before the news, you can see it.

That's what I'll be watching.
Still many opportunities, we are so early.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

@verrissimus @WinamaxSport @OTP_LoL @grok Ty @grok for the answer 🪄

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Provisional Suspension of Player Tomislav Nanjara ("Thomas") for Alleged Code of Conduct Violations

https://t.co/XXzNsnfUtd

Around LFL player.
Just to remind the biggest French LoL esport broadcast just announced a partnership with @WinamaxSport
@OTP_LoL

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Do you think I can find something on chain about it? I’m gonna analyse every TLNP markets on polymarket and see if I find something suspect there.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Provisional Suspension of Player Tomislav Nanjara ("Thomas") for Alleged Code of Conduct Violations

https://t.co/XXzNsnfUtd

Around LFL player.
Just to remind the biggest French LoL esport broadcast just announced a partnership with @WinamaxSport
@OTP_LoL

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

I may start to look around every liquid prediction market to setup a bot, let’s see

[Cayden @PlusEvStick]

I went from $0 to almost $100,000 in 20 months and I am still in grad school.

I started using @OddsJam on February 4, 2025.

I was a broke 22-year-old grad student grinding toward my Master’s in Clinical Nutrition. No real income. No side hustle that actually worked. Just a guy who loved sports and had no idea what arbitrage betting even was.

Twenty months later I am sitting at almost $100,000 in profit.

I did not get lucky. I did not tail some guru on Twitter. I did not open a DraftKings account and start throwing money at parlays.

I found a mathematical edge. I showed up every day. And I let the numbers do what numbers do.

The thing that gets me most?

Sports betting paid for my engagement ring.

It is going to pay for my wedding.

I am 22 years old.

Here is the full breakdown of exactly how I did it, what the OddsJam arbitrage tool actually does, and how you can start replicating this today. 🧵👇

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Match fix in LFL omgggg

[TLN PIRATES @TLN_PIRATES]

🤮

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

https://t.co/4MbJDNNp5p Gainzy PNL on Polymarket? -50K.
Apparently, being a big KOL but not a good trader.
The chain can't lie

[gainzy @gainzy222]

Bet 50k on the bears to beat the packers on polymarket at 53% instead of betting it at -115 at an online casino and got worse odds

Paid $694 in fees I didn’t know about. This shit is dumb.

Going back to casinos. Never again. Don’t even have a cool slip to tweet. Dopamine gone.

[Don Poly @TheDonPoly]

Stake, Shuffle, Roobet. You are betting against the house. They will make EVERYTHING they can to make you loose, limit bets, bugging UI, withdrawal bugs
-> Polymarket cant do that