TheDutchPharaoh 🐸

$TIBBIR 🐸

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@Altcoinist $TIBBIR 🐸

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@Altcoinist HODL 🐸🐸🐸 #TIBBIR

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@Altcoinist $TIBBIR 🐸

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

24/h onchain data for $SPRT is looking good here:

✅ Top 100 increased overall
✅ More inflows than outflows for Top 40
✅ Exchange balance neutral
✅ Initial chart pattern shows more confirmation
✅ One of my top-tier wallets entered

Trust a framework and have patience 🤝

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

Been scanning for onchain setups and my eyes caught $SPRT. Here's why it has an interesting setup:

- Exchange outflow dropped from 540M (Jan 6) to 98M (Jan 13, as of now).
- When exchange outflow was at 144M on Jan 11, price pumped 24x. That was your signal, which could have been spotted with @nansen_ai.
- Price has since dumped 81% and reached 145k MC, while exchange outflow is still sitting at low levels.
- That's strange right? It was sold, so LP balance should go up? It did not, because Top 100 wallets kept accumulating during the dip. Whales did the same, as did smart money.
- Currently, 4 smart money accounts are holding this, and 8 have been trading it. It’s a nice plus to see for now, but nothing more at the moment.
- It is also somewhat linked to Sol The Trophy Tomato, which I’ve mentioned before, which had an extreme supply squeeze.

I haven’t done any DD on clusters, snipers, team, or the project itself.

This post is shared for informational purposes only, where I study interesting on-chain patterns and look for flows, nothing else.

That said, the setup looks like a possible new supply squeeze contender to me.

CA:
JC6NduxxLvvV7X5Pb9agHQTRpHTecB83HhGK4VZHpump

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@cryptorinweb3 $DARKHORSE is about to unleash all it's horsepowers, great thesis yet again @cryptorinweb3! #darkhorse #solana

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

$DARKHORSE on SOL is about explode. Don't fade this one anon 🔥🐎. Also have a look at @cryptorinweb3 thesis about this possible gem. #solana #darkhorse
CA: 5YxXvio26Mv2RfZEYMPVcStKRVMG7TTjcWJjYjjGpump

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

A big whale wallet I’ve been following with a $1.07M total balance, is a large $AVICI whale and holds $400k in $SOL.

Just now, out of thousands of memes and scam tokens, he bought a third token:

$DARKHORSE

Looks like whales are starting to pay attention to my thesis.

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

Another play with an interesting onchain setup is $DARKHORSE.

@DarkHorseMeme got rugged back in May 2025, stayed dormant for about 8 months, and was then revived by the community and CTO-ed one week ago.

Since then, holders increased to 1,500+, up from roughly 1,000 when the revival started.

But enough with these “fundamentals” for now, it is still a meme.

Let’s look at why the onchain pattern is interesting, since that's what this post is about. We want to learn and understand why things potentially move.

- The token saw a massive Exchange (LP) outflow on Dec 29, dropping from 82.47% to 16.82% by Jan 3, as per @nansen_ai.

- This was followed by a 37x price pump, reaching around a $582k MC.

- Since then, price has pulled back to roughly $191k MC as of now. Another dead meme? Well, I am not fully convinced when looking at the data, here's why.

- Current exchange supply remains very low at 15.5% and has stayed almost flat since Jan 3.

- Meanwhile, the Top 100 addresses increased their holdings from 38% to 75.7% since Jan 3. I've been vocal a lot about how important this is and why this is one of the market making segments I look at.

- One of those top 100 wallets is also an address I follow that made around $130k on token $114514 with a $2k entry.

I shared this setup around $160k MC in my TG, based on these onchain patterns. Since then, the price has been hovering a bit, but the patterns have remained the same. This makes it an interesting candidate for a supply squeeze.

CA If you want to investigate it yourself:

5YxXvio26Mv2RfZEYMPVcStKRVMG7TTjcWJjYjjGpump

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@cryptorinweb3 @nansen_ai @0x_rc Nice $TIBBIR thread bro 🔥🐸!

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

The market is dumping, and no matter how strong $TIBBIR is, it is feeling the impact as well.

As a relatively large holder, do I get scared?

Not even 1%, and that is because I know exactly what I bought.

But more importantly, I have insight into what the market-making segments are doing on-chain. Segments that make or break a play.

These segments consist of the same participants who also bought $TIBBIR early, held through volatility, and showed the highest level of conviction, even during times of fear.

I believe they will also be the ones that drive the next leg up once broader market conditions turn in our favor, assuming the onchain data remains positive obviously.

Below is a high-level overview of how I analyze this data using @nansen_ai, to get a high overview about what's happening.

>> Top holders increasing overall

The top holders segment is increasing and currently controls almost 50% of the supply.

But do note that this metric also includes holdings from CEX and DEX wallets, as well as smart contracts such as staking pools, and can therefore be misleading.

>> Top 7 day ouflows vs inflows

If we exclude CEX and DEX holdings, we get the following:

- Outflows are approximately 19M, including smart contracts.
- Inflows are approximately 17M, including smart contracts.

Overall, this indicates a relatively stable situation with close to net-neutral flows in the last 7 days.

Disclaimer: I only check flows here, not what these flows actually were (buys, sells, transfers, staking, unstaking etc).

>> Top 40 holder flows

The highest inflows and outflows are different than the flows from the top 40 holders. And this is good information to check out as well, as an important market-making segment.

Now let’s look at the Top 40 holders and their flows.

This segment is very balanced. In fact, the Top 40 is increasing, with holder number 40 alone showing a 3.58M inflow.

>> Top PnL wallets with 7-day unrealized gains

Another important segment to watch is top PnL wallets with unrealized gains.

Why?

Because if participants are sitting on substantial profits and are genuinely scared, they would have likely sold, at least partially.

Take a look at the percentage still holding below.

As you can see, the majority is holding. Yes, other PnL holders have sold, otherwise we wouldn't have seen this dump. But the ones with unrealized gains choose to hold.

Disclaimer: This whole analysis also excludes the increase we see in both Smart Money wallets and whales, again further market-making conviction.

>> So why do we dump then?

When large sell orders hit the market, they create fear, especially among retail participants.

Retail sells as well, fear spreads through group chats, and selling pressure compounds.

Eventually, this triggers a broader fear-driven sell-off from weak hands, which aligns with the sentiment we are seeing across the market right now.

That said, I strongly believe the same market-making segments I have been tracking for a long time now are still here and still holding. These were the same participants that drove the initial expansion and price discovery in the first place.

The core thesis behind $TIBBIR remains intact. The conviction that fueled the move in the first place has not changed.

Yes, it hurts to watch sell-offs like this. But over time, you become immune to them. This is part of the game you are in.

I have learned that these moments are not about reacting, but about understanding who is actually selling and who is not.

Volatility tests conviction. This is where weak hands exit and strong hands are validated, and will eventually realize real profits when retail decides to re-enter.

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

Nansen Mega Thread

Market conditions are tough now. The easiest thing is to leave. The hardest thing is to keep going.

If you want to level up your onchain game, this thread is for you.

It includes 7 categories with 16 posts that had the highest engagement and best insights.

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

Inside the $CAKE Rally: What Smart Money Did Before Everyone Else

I spent the weekend tracking $CAKE's 50%+ rally. $BNB hit an ATH (again), @PancakeSwap launched new features and volume surged. The on-chain data shows something worth examining.

Smart money accumulated 169,900 $CAKE on Sept 24 at $2.80, weeks before the rally started. They added another 68,300 $CAKE on Oct 3 at $3.40 as the pump accelerated.

Then, in the last 24h at $3.82, activity went quiet. Zero net flow of Smart Money or active wallets. Meanwhile, $6.86M in fresh (likely retail) wallets entered, all in those same 24h.

Here's what the data actually shows about positioning and conviction based on @nansen_ai 👇
------

1⃣ The setup: Why everyone suddenly started paying attention

$BNB hit a new ATH around $1,111 on Oct 3-4. The whole @BNBCHAIN ecosystem was mooning, together with other leading protocols like @Aster_DEX which captured CT's entire mindshare.

$CAKE, as the largest DEX on the chain, captured the momentum too. Q3 trading volume hit $772B (+42% QoQ). Fee-earning limit orders went live. And today, the team unveiled CAKE.PAD, its new token launch platform.

Price responded fast: $2.48 on Sept 30 → $3.90 as of today. That's +57% in 6 days, not too shabby for a DEX with a $1.3B valuation.

But not all rallies have the same on-chain structure. The key question is: who positioned early, and are they still holding?
------

2⃣ The timeline: Early positioning into strength

Sep 24 (Price: $2.80)
Smart money balance jumps 169,900 $CAKE in a single day, a 59% increase (288k → 467k). This happened before the rally, before $BNB's ATH, and before the product announcements.

Front-running the move like on-chain legends, as always. There is a reason these wallets are being called “smart”.

Oct 3 (Price: $3.40)
Smart money adds another 68,300 $CAKE during the rally itself. They’re not selling into strength though, they’re adding. Volume explodes to $105M (vs. $5–8M normal). Seems like a strong conviction run to me.

Oct 6, Last 24h (Price: $3.82)
Things clearly shifted. Smart Money went quiet (no new net flows), retail stepped in (+$6.86M) while exchange inflows increased to $5.72M, in the last 24h.

The 24h dormancy raises a question tho: is positioning complete, or are they waiting for the next catalyst?
------

3⃣ The Conviction Picture: High unrealized gains, yet no exits

Top 25 traders (by 30-day unrealized PnL) show one dominant pattern: they’re sitting on 30–70% gains and are still holding.

Examples:
➤ Top trader: +46% ROI, 96% still holding ($1M unrealized, only $26k realized)
➤ Rank 2: +56% ROI, 100% still holding ($809k unrealized)
➤ Multiple others: 70–99% ROI, holding 94–100% of positions

Only 3 of the 25 have sold more than 50%. The rest are riding profits. Average: 85–90% still holding.

IMO this is the key insight: these traders could realize 30-70% gains after a 44% rally but are choosing to hold. Conviction remains high.
------

4⃣ The Tension: Conviction vs. exchange activity

But conviction alone doesn’t stop possible sell pressure.

Exchange deposits are rising:
➤ 7d: +$21.8M to exchanges (~1.7% of MC)
➤ 24h: +$5.7M (~25% of weekly total)
➤ Binance and Bybit both showing acceleration

Why it matters: On Oct 23, all staked $CAKE becomes withdrawable, which is just 17 days away from this time of writing.

Staking pools are already showing outflows, and similar unlocks often create short-term selling, especially after a 50%+ run.

At the same time however, fundamentals look stronger than ever:
➤ Supply cap cut to 450M (current: 361M TS)
➤ $791M $CAKE burned YTD (=$3B)
➤ CAKE.PAD launches with 100% fee burns
➤ Cross-chain inflows to BNB Chain rising
➤ BNB is sitting at the center of CT's mindshare

Deflationary mechanics just got meaningfully stronger. And if there's one thing I prefer that protocols do, it's the combination of real revenue and burns.

It's time that more crypto protocols start acting like true businesses.
------

5⃣ The Bet: Conviction vs. timing risk

So there you have it. Roughly 85–90% of profitable traders still hold their $CAKE, sitting on 30–70% unrealized gains. They added near $3.40 and haven’t sold into strength, which is a strong signal of belief.

At the same time, in the last 24h smart money is quiet, retail entered near local highs, and exchange deposits are accelerating ahead of the Oct 23 unlock.

This creates a classic conviction-vs-timing setup.

Structurally, the fundamentals lean bullish. But near-term flows and the unlock window add caution. The signal is therefore mixed IMO: conviction says up, flows say wait.

Let’s see if Oct 23 ends up rewarding the believers, or testing them first.

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@cryptorinweb3 Great article bro, keep up the good work 🔥💪🏻!

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

https://t.co/MjTOaCHFyk

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@cryptorinweb3 Awesome bro 🫡🔥!

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

The future belongs to onchain intelligence

Over the past weeks I’ve shared insights on smart money flows and setups using Nansen. These methods sharpened my trading, and the response has been strong.

That is why I created a Telegram channel to share my work their first.

A month ago I wrote about why everything is moving onchain. Once it does, intelligence and timing will be the true edge. Onchain intelligence will not be a tool, it will be an asset class. The traders who master it will dominate this and the next cycle.

The demand is clear. Traders want onchain alpha, but most don’t know where to start, where to find the right data, or how to act on it. Tools can be complex, signals are often noisy, and risk management is overlooked.

Meanwhile, thousands of crypto groups either blindly shill tokens without onchain or fundamental backing. Few actually track what the most profitable wallets, whales, and funds are doing and turn it into actionable context.

That is the gap I want to fill.

Inside my channel I will share:
• Daily market updates aligned with smart money flows
• My thinking process, not just raw data
• Plays backed by whale activity and flow confirmation
• Quick alerts on high profitable wallet moves and setups

If you believe the future belongs to onchain intelligence, want to learn from smart money, and improve your chances of finding profitable plays, join the channel and start the journey with me.

Link in the next post.

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@aixbt_agent @cryptorinweb3 @nansen_ai @0x_rc Everybody should use dark mode hehe

[TheDutchPharaoh 🐸 @TheDutchPharaoh]

@cryptorinweb3 @nansen_ai @0x_rc Great thread bro! Very bullish on Flock, with all the stuff surrounding this project (tech, partnerships, smart money inflow etc.), I won't be surprised if it goes too 100m+ mc quite soon 🔥👀

[Cryptor ⚡️ @cryptorinweb3]

Conviction plays are bets on industries shifting.

For me, those were $AAVE, $TAO, $TIBBIR, and $REI. Together they built half my net worth.

Now I think the next one is $FLOCK.

The chart went up 100% on my first entry and I just bought more on the pullback.

Here’s why 👇
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻

1. What Flock is building
@flock_io is creating the first decentralized AI training platform powered by federated learning.

Instead of shipping your data to Big Tech, the model comes to you. Gradients are shared, but your raw data never leaves your device.

Think AI training in your living room, with the rewards flowing back to you.

2. Why this isn’t just another AI buzzword project
We’ve all seen it before: decentralized AI, privacy, ownership. Most projects talk big, never find product-market fit, and fade.

So why is Flock different?

Because it already has real-world validation:

🔹 Alibaba Cloud → Co-building advanced AI models on Qwen LLM with @Alibaba_Qwen, the chatGPT of AliBaba. If this takes off in healthcare, finance, or government, adoption could surpass DeFi TVL.

🔹 United Nations → Selected as strategic AI partner for the UNDP SDG Blockchain Accelerator. Pilots in climate finance, healthcare, and social protection. Remember that the UN doesn’t hand out partnerships lightly, especially not in emerging tech like decentralized AI.

🔹 Coinbase listing → Liquidity + recognition. What’s rare is the timing since most projects don’t land a Coinbase listing while also stacking deals like UN and Alibaba.

🔹 Hong Kong GenAI R&D Centre → Building privacy-preserving AI for government efficiency. Governments are tough to win over and this shows serious trust in Flock's tech.

On top of this, the team recently shipped a federated learning pilot in just one week, integrating it with @WalrusProtocol's erasure coding for resilient data distribution and @Mysten_Labs' SEAL homomorphic encryption for secure computation.

That’s enterprise-grade, privacy-first AI infra, exactly what’s needed when data breaches cost nearly $5M per incident and GDPR-style regulation is tightening.

3. On-chain data confirms the fundamentals:
• $1.9M smart money net inflows over 7 days (Top PnL traders: $1.4M, Smart Traders: $452k)
• 58 Top PnL wallets active with mixed positioning, both accumulation and profit-taking
• Large holders showing discipline after a +166% move from $0.18 to $0.48

The 7-day data paints a healthy but nuanced picture. While price surged +166% to $0.48, smart money showed disciplined behavior. Some took profits, while others maintained core holdings.

According to @nansen_ai flow data, this looks like institutional-grade positioning rather than retail speculation.

The pullback to $0.30 is not distribution failure but a natural retracement. The key insight is that $1.9M in smart money net inflows came during this volatile period, showing conviction remains strong despite profit-taking.

To me, this signals healthy position management in a strong uptrend, and definitely not a top.

4. The bottom line
Execution risk is still there. Partnerships and positioning are strong, but scaling is what separates lasting infra from hype cycles.

If Flock keeps delivering though, it won’t just be “another AI token.”

It could go down as the infrastructure play of the decade.

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