The Fair Odds

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia v Uruguay

🤖 Our model SGPs -fair odds
Uruguay + Under 2.5 — 3.50
Uruguay + Over 2.5 — 3.62
BTTS + Over 2.5 — 3.28
Uruguay + Uruguay -1 — 3.86
Over 9.5 corners + Over 3.5 cards — 5.47
Darwin Núñez to score + Uruguay — 5.91
Núñez + Uruguay + Over 2.5 — 8.51

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🇧🇪 Belgium v Egypt
🤖 Our model SGPs fair odds
Belgium + Over 2.5 — 3.10
BTTS + Over 2.5 — 2.54
Belgium + Belgium -1 — 4.05
Belgium + Over 2.5 + BTTS — 4.32
Over 9.5 corners + Over 3.5 cards — 5.05
Openda to score + Belgium — 10.59
Belgium + O2.5 + BTTS + O9.5 corners — 11.14

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🤖 Our model — Spain v Cape Verde (World Cup)
Fair odds👇
🚩 Corners
Over 9.5 match 3.22 | Spain over 4.5 2.23
Most corners: Spain 1.96

👟 Shots
Rodri 1+ 2.14 | Pedri 1+ 2.21 | Cucurella 1+ 2.47
Pedri 1+ on target 3.13

🅰️ Assists
Pedri 5.57 | Gavi 8.13 | Fabián Ruiz 8.40

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🤖 Same-game parlay fair odds — Spain v Cape Verde

Spain + Over 2.5 — 1.61
Spain + BTTS + Over 2.5 — 3.13
Spain -1 handicap + Spain win — 1.46
BTTS + Over 2.5 — 2.83

Model output, not betting advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🤖 Our model's fair odds — FIFA World Cup, 15 Jun
Spain v Cape Verde
1X2: Spain 1.14 | Draw 9.74 | Cape Verde 57.77
Over 2.5 goals: 1.56 | Under: 2.79
Model output, not betting advice. 18+ | https://t.co/b2Jrc28NTP

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🤖 Our model's predictions — FIFA World Cup, 14 Jun
Germany v Curaçao
1X2: Germany 1.08 | Draw 15.43 | Curaçao —
Over 2.5 goals: 1.55 | Under: 2.80
⚠️ Our two models diverge on this one — low confidence.
Model output, not betting advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🎰 Our model's confident double tonight — across the late games

Over 2.5 goals in BOTH:
🇭🇹 Haiti v Scotland (56%) + 🇦🇺 Australia v Turkey (55%)

Our model: ~30% (fair ~3.3). Two of our highest-confidence reads in one.
Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

⚽ Frantzdy Pierrot to score for Haiti

Our model: ~19% (fair ~5.3) — Haiti's likeliest scorer (Nazon's benched, so he leads the line).
Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🎰 Haiti v Scotland — our model's builder

Scott McTominay to score + Over 2.5 goals
Our model: ~28% (fair ~3.5)

Scotland's main man on the scoresheet in an open game.
Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

⚽ Scott McTominay to score (Scotland v Haiti)

Our model: ~36% (fair ~2.8) — Scotland's likeliest scorer.
We'll grade it after FT. Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🇭🇹 Haiti v Scotland — our model differs on the draw

Our model: Draw 31% (fair ~3.25). The book: ~21% (4.83).
We don't see Scotland cruising — more open than the price suggests.

A different read — the result decides. Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🔍 Where our model most disagrees with the book tonight:

🇦🇺 Australia v Turkey — we make Australia 38% to win, the book has them ~17%.

Very different reads — no calling it yet, the result decides.
Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🎰 Qatar v Switzerland — our model's bet builder

Switzerland to win + Over 2.5 goals + Breel Embolo to score
Our model: ~13% (fair ~7.8)

Three correlated legs priced as one — a favourite running a high-tempo game.
Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🤖 Our model's highest-confidence calls tonight — where our independent models agree most:

Switzerland to win v Qatar — 77%
Australia v Turkey: Over 2.5 goals — 55%
Haiti v Scotland: Over 2.5 goals — 56%

We'll grade every one. Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🇶🇦 Qatar v Switzerland 🇨🇭 — our model vs the book

Lined up on the result (Switzerland ~82%). Where we differ: goals — our model 69% Over 2.5 vs the book's ~59%. Top scorer: Embolo (~42%, starting).

Result shows who's closer. Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🇺🇸 USA v Paraguay — high-confidence read 🇵🇾

Under 3.5 goals: our model 77%

Two evenly-matched sides, no clear favourite — we don't see a goal glut. One of our most likely calls of the night.
Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🇺🇸 USA v Paraguay — our model's top bet-builder 🇵🇾

Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 goals → fair 2.60 (~38%)

An even, open matchup: if it opens up, both scoring with goals flowing is our most-correlated angle here. We'll grade it after FT.
Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🇺🇸 USA v Paraguay 🇵🇾 — wide open by our model.

No clear favourite: USA 38% / Draw 31% / Paraguay 30%. Goals look a coin-flip (Over 2.5: 49%).

Betfair backs USA harder (2.14 ≈ 47%); we rate Paraguay's chances higher. The result decides.

Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🤖 Highest-confidence calls tonight (our model)

🇨🇦 Canada v Bosnia — Canada or Draw: 91%
🇺🇸 USA v Paraguay — Under 3.5 goals: 77%
🇨🇦 Canada v Bosnia — Over 1.5 goals: 73%

The most likely to land by our model — we'll grade every one.
Model output, not advice. 18+

[The Fair Odds @TheFairOdds]

🇨🇦 Canada v Bosnia — high-confidence call (our model)

Over 1.5 goals: our model 73% | Betfair 1.40 (≈71%)

One we and the market are lined up on — both expect goals. The result will tell.
Model output, not advice. 18+