Yeah, a lot of the price action we would have seen gets kicked to a future move as the market reacts. In this case, this primes June OPEX (June 18th). The system tries to vent, gets crushed by news, it reschedules it to later. Do this enough and you get a lot of pressure and the system needs to vent. So that novation crush may end up being where it tries again. I stress the "may" part because Ryan is in the driver's seat and he can keep pushing that beach ball down if he thinks it's best.
Volume is a modulator to the shape as it unwinds (volume amplifies the moves), so having a massive cliff doesn't mean we are going to drop to negative numbers, and we aren't unwinding just this one track (it's a series). So, it's a complex net of interweaving tracks that we move between and it can't be fully understood by just pasting bars over top. It is a nice way to get a rough idea though. Novation crush is basically the deepest dip in the FTD data for the pink line: https://t.co/7INcC4biNJ
@HakunaYourTataz Not to scale, and not the only thing happening, but here's one snapshot I'm watching. Corporate actions would definitely change this snapshot.
@TwatterLester Close, but Iβd separate it from ordinary gamma. Novation Crush isnβt just MMs hedging call OI, itβs the unwind of a transferred/warehoused obligation. The 90k $30C OI may be the visible hedge/pressure point where that obligation expresses into listed options.