I’m not a financial advisor all my posts are part of my studies only, and not recommendation of investments, I cover all risk assets and World Wide Bonds market
LEVERAGED BETS IN U.S. MARKETS HIT RECORDS AS ETF EXPOSURE SURGES PAST $460 BILLION
LEVERAGE IN U.S. EQUITIES REACHES UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS
INVESTORS ADD $200 BILLION OF LEVERAGED ETF EXPOSURE SINCE APRIL
LIQUIDITY WARNING: KEY LEADING INDICATOR TURNS NEGATIVE FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2021
U.S. LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS EXCESS LIQUIDITY INDEX FALLS BELOW ZERO
HAWKISH FED AND TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS FLASH WARNING FOR EQUITIES
I'm here to help you understand how dealers are positioned and market movements, I'm the only one here that do this for love, be careful with Risk Assets from now on, I have been posting:
"FIXED INCOME IS THE NEW LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY"
We're seeing the biggest contraction in the gap between US 2-year and 30-year yields going back to April 2025 following the Fed's rate decision and hawkish tone.
*WARSH: WHAT WE'VE GIVEN MARKETS IS A NEW CHAPTER FOR THE CENTRAL BANK, SOME FRESH THINKING. WE'VE GIVEN A COMMITMENT TO ASK OURSELVES HARD QUESTIONS SO THAT WE CAN DELIVER ON THE PROMISES WE HAVE MADE BEFORE
Very hawkish dot plot.
Nine out of 18 officials have at least one hike this year (and six of those 9 have *multiple hikes*).
Only one person has a cut this year, and one participant (presumably Warsh) didn't submit an SEP
The statement gets a complete writethru from top to bottom, much shorter
WARSH FED DEBUT MAY JOLT BOND MARKETS
Fidelity investors warn new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could trigger bond-market volatility, especially after Wednesday’s policy decision.
His first press conference may reset expectations on inflation and rates, with markets already pricing a potential hike this year despite recent stability. Treasuries and swaps have swung sharply amid geopolitical shocks and shifting rate bets.
Portfolio managers say uncertainty around Warsh’s tone—hawkish or dovish—could quickly reprice financial conditions and revive volatility.
FOMC statement? According to Morgan Stanley, two options: a boring version which just drops the easing bias, and a "revolutionary" one which sets Warsh's mark and strikes the entire "boilerplate" paragraph 4
US 10-year Treasuries are offering about the greatest amount of yield versus the S&P 500's earnings yield going back to 2003. Either earnings have to keep outperforming, or bonds will start looking like an increasingly attractive alternative.
FINANCIAL STRESS PUSHES RECORD 6% TO WITHDRAW FROM 401(K)S
RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS BECOME EMERGENCY FUNDS FOR MORE AMERICANS
RECORD 401(K) HARDSHIP WITHDRAWALS SIGNAL HOUSEHOLD STRAIN
US 20-Year Bond Auction
High Yield 4.927% [Stop-through −1.0 bps]
Bid-to-cover 2.75
Sells $13 bln
Awards 56.57% of bids at high
Primary Dealers take 8.5%
Direct 19.9%
Indirect 71.6%