Antonio

Lessons Learned. Observations. Facts and Speculation. Things I want to remember.

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

@nntaleb Most will never have heard of Avicenna, even fewer will know he is even mentioned by Dante in the inferno amongst the greatest peers .

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

You may have noticed I have a thing for gaps.

A while back I was looking for PayPal to fill the Gap at $95, first purple line.

If we break support at the magic red line $70 I will be looking for $PYPL to fill ze gap at $44

Crazy round trip...

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

wow

[Charles Rotblut, CFA 🏃‍♂️ @CharlesRAAII]

AAII Sentiment Survey:
*Bullish: Down to a 3-month low
*Neutral: Below avg. for 54th out last 56 weeks
*Bearish: Unusually high
https://t.co/mQkPVKWb9Q

Our AII Contrarian Sentiment Indicator is now signaling cautious sentiment.
https://t.co/cUqsgFukhq

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

If you want to take a trade, don’t take it.

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

I have no idea where we go from here. But the long side yesterday was an obvious trade.
I am out. Gone.

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

We may be approaching peak fear and time for a short term bounce.
Muted reaction and no new low on China additional 50% tariff and Bond market rout.

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

Fuck the Furus, fuck the Gurus.
Listening to others will get you recked in this business.
Trust me. I am living proof.
Take all decision making into your own hands.

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

Who the fuck is buying Cotton?
I am.

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

We may be approaching peak fear and time for a short term bounce.
Muted reaction and no new low on China additional 50% tariff and Bond market rout.

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

$SILVER

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

Tesla earning = 100% gaslighting

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

Amazing flip in sentiment. 250 points later.

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

Looks like AAPL top is in, may not be revisited for years to come.

[AAII SentimentSurvey @AAIISentiment]

May AAII Asset Allocation Survey
*Stocks/Stock Funds: Largest exposure since December 2021
*Bonds/Bond Funds: Last lower in November 2022
*Cash: Last lower in December 2021
https://t.co/EiS0fTGUqP

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress).

Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures.

On top of the fragility, there is an intergenerational transfer of liability, highly immoral (h/t Spitznagel).

Note/Errata: total deficit north of 30 Bil is the accumulated deficit. (I mistakenly used the same word to describe current and accumulated).

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

There must be a better way …..

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

22,313 PALESTINIANS KILLED AND 57,296 INJURED IN ISRAELI STRIKES ON GAZA SINCE OCT.7 - GAZA HEALTH MINISTRY

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

GDP was up 4.7% are you really that surprised AMZNs revenues grew?

If AMZN does not represent the economy, who does?

[AlphaSense @AlphaSenseInc]

$AMZN Earnings:

- Net sales increased 13% to $143.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with $127.1 billion in third quarter 2022. Excluding the $1.4 billion favorable impact from year-over-year changes in foreign exchange rates throughout the quarter, net sales increased 11% compared with third quarter 2022.
- AWS segment sales increased 12% year-over-year to $23.1 billion.
- AWS segment operating income was $7.0 billion, compared with operating income of $5.4 billion in third quarter 2022.
- Operating income increased to $11.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with $2.5 billion in third quarter 2022.
- Net income increased to $9.9 billion in the third quarter, or $0.94 per diluted share, compared with $2.9 billion, or $0.28 per diluted share, in third quarter 2022.
- Operating cash flow increased 81% to $71.7 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $39.7 billion for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2022.

“We had a strong third quarter as our cost to serve and speed of delivery in our Stores business took another step forward, our AWS growth continued to stabilize, our Advertising revenue grew robustly, and overall operating income and free cash flow rose significantly,” said Andy Jassy, Amazon CEO. “The benefits of moving from a single national fulfillment network in the U.S. to eight distinct regions are exceeding our optimistic expectations, and perhaps most importantly, putting us on pace to deliver the fastest delivery speeds for Prime customers in our 29-year history. The AWS team continues to innovate and deliver at a rapid clip, particularly in generative AI, where the combination of our custom AI chips, Amazon Bedrock being the easiest and most flexible way to build and deploy generative AI applications, and our coding companion (CodeWhisperer) allowing enterprises to have the equivalent of an experienced engineer who understands all of their proprietary code is driving momentum with customers, including adidas, https://t.co/oCa3IBBRlx, GoDaddy, LexisNexis, Merck, Royal Philips, and United Airlines, all of whom are starting to run generative AI workloads on AWS. Between AWS re:Invent and our 29th holiday shopping season, this is a particularly action-packed time of year at Amazon and we’re excited for what’s to come.”

https://t.co/ngjHmn9TrS

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

There is also the Cramer problem
https://t.co/bicbjFYbbs

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

Big if, but relief rally in stocks off the oversold and interest rates not soaring.. keep it in mind

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

A combination of sentiment metrics suggest we might be getting close to a low.

AAII most bearish since May

[Antonio @TheLastTrader_X]

VIX remains still unbelievably subdued. IMO to avoid a serious waterfall moment any dip sub 4100 on the SPX should be swiftly reversed, otherwise you may open up the doors to something quite nasty.

Assuming that holds, I think we could see a meaningful counter trend rally in Nov