You may have noticed I have a thing for gaps.
A while back I was looking for PayPal to fill the Gap at $95, first purple line.
If we break support at the magic red line $70 I will be looking for $PYPL to fill ze gap at $44
Crazy round trip...
AAII Sentiment Survey:
*Bullish: Down to a 3-month low
*Neutral: Below avg. for 54th out last 56 weeks
*Bearish: Unusually high
https://t.co/mQkPVKWb9Q
Our AII Contrarian Sentiment Indicator is now signaling cautious sentiment.
https://t.co/cUqsgFukhq
Fuck the Furus, fuck the Gurus.
Listening to others will get you recked in this business.
Trust me. I am living proof.
Take all decision making into your own hands.
May AAII Asset Allocation Survey
*Stocks/Stock Funds: Largest exposure since December 2021
*Bonds/Bond Funds: Last lower in November 2022
*Cash: Last lower in December 2021
https://t.co/EiS0fTGUqP
Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress).
Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures.
On top of the fragility, there is an intergenerational transfer of liability, highly immoral (h/t Spitznagel).
Note/Errata: total deficit north of 30 Bil is the accumulated deficit. (I mistakenly used the same word to describe current and accumulated).
$AMZN Earnings:
- Net sales increased 13% to $143.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with $127.1 billion in third quarter 2022. Excluding the $1.4 billion favorable impact from year-over-year changes in foreign exchange rates throughout the quarter, net sales increased 11% compared with third quarter 2022.
- AWS segment sales increased 12% year-over-year to $23.1 billion.
- AWS segment operating income was $7.0 billion, compared with operating income of $5.4 billion in third quarter 2022.
- Operating income increased to $11.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with $2.5 billion in third quarter 2022.
- Net income increased to $9.9 billion in the third quarter, or $0.94 per diluted share, compared with $2.9 billion, or $0.28 per diluted share, in third quarter 2022.
- Operating cash flow increased 81% to $71.7 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $39.7 billion for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2022.
“We had a strong third quarter as our cost to serve and speed of delivery in our Stores business took another step forward, our AWS growth continued to stabilize, our Advertising revenue grew robustly, and overall operating income and free cash flow rose significantly,” said Andy Jassy, Amazon CEO. “The benefits of moving from a single national fulfillment network in the U.S. to eight distinct regions are exceeding our optimistic expectations, and perhaps most importantly, putting us on pace to deliver the fastest delivery speeds for Prime customers in our 29-year history. The AWS team continues to innovate and deliver at a rapid clip, particularly in generative AI, where the combination of our custom AI chips, Amazon Bedrock being the easiest and most flexible way to build and deploy generative AI applications, and our coding companion (CodeWhisperer) allowing enterprises to have the equivalent of an experienced engineer who understands all of their proprietary code is driving momentum with customers, including adidas, https://t.co/oCa3IBBRlx, GoDaddy, LexisNexis, Merck, Royal Philips, and United Airlines, all of whom are starting to run generative AI workloads on AWS. Between AWS re:Invent and our 29th holiday shopping season, this is a particularly action-packed time of year at Amazon and we’re excited for what’s to come.”
https://t.co/ngjHmn9TrS
VIX remains still unbelievably subdued. IMO to avoid a serious waterfall moment any dip sub 4100 on the SPX should be swiftly reversed, otherwise you may open up the doors to something quite nasty.
Assuming that holds, I think we could see a meaningful counter trend rally in Nov