The Macro Monkey

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@ToroDeArena @AndresFLema12 🤣 pregúntale a los venezolanos, que usaron Bitcoin para sacar su dinero de Venezuela a ver si piensan que no tiene algún valor... que el 99% de crypto sea basura no quiere decir que no tengan algún uso real y valor.

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@DaMedinaR Exactamente... la gente (no relacionada a los mercados) empieza a hablar e interesarse por inversiones cuando salen en los medios. Siendo el simil de esto un economista queriendo proyectar el futuro de la economía basándose en el más reciente número del PIB...

[Eduardo Quiñones @Equol29]

am I right to say @JulianMI2 that 00's and 08's YC steepening were bull steepeners and that this one is a MONSTER Bear Steepener? I´m still too much of a monkey to assume this is a sign of what @michaeljburry is warning but heck... this chart scares the heck out of any D-Mark

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@ToroDeArena Y el yield curve más empinada que el Everest

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@DaMedinaR Qué criterio usas para escoger esas periodicidades?

Creo que todo depende del timeframe que uno usa. Yo abro mis posiciones a 3-6 meses. De ahí que uso las MA de acuerdo 1 mes, 3 meses y 6 meses X días de negociación...

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

Margin Debt en su punto más alto desde 2009... @FINRA #PMI

Everyone is All In...

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@BlacklionCTA @BenjaminDCooper Which portion of this commodity bull market has to do with increased demand and which with disruptions on the supply chain?

In all PMIs across the globe the main reason for higher input prices was disruption of SCs while mentioning difficulties on passing those onto customers

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@JulianMI2 @mochapslyA ok, OER is a big portion of CPI...

what fundamental force is behind that expected increase in OER though...

a) led by landlords raising rents?
or
b) les by less affordability of tenants to buy new homes?

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@mochapslyA @JulianMI2 Exactly... from USA to China all PMIs are mentioning Input Price pressures due to disruptions on SCs. my questions would be...

1. Once covid related restrictions ease... will this inflation fade away? I think, yes some part of it will

2. Will this translate in CPI inflation

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

2/2 when SC gets somewhat normalized the price pressure on inputs will decrease... to see consumer #inflation (especially when consumables are being sold at discount everywhere) the ability of producer to transfer these prices to consumers is Key 🔑

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

1/2 After going through almost all major #PMI reports. inflationary pressures coming from manufacturers side led by SC disruptions. Consumer goods sector the weakest one though.

So there’s inflation everywhere but mainly driven by SC disruptions...

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

Every time yields (YoY) started to pick up within the current framework (GDP lower than CPI growth) was a sign of Growth recovery. That also meant a trough in #BTC. But this time is different. #BTC is at a peak... is then the new 60/40 portfolio of @CathieDWood in place???

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

Texas proposes constitutional amendment to legalize sports wagering, according to a post on Texas Legislature Online

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@leadlagreport It’s a waste of time most of the times

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

SCHUMER SAYS COVID RELIEF BILL ON TRACK TO REACH BIDEN'S DESK BY MARCH 14

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

S&P 500 YoY sales growth by sector...
Technology: +13%
Health Care: +10%
Consumer Staples: +6%
Communications: +5%
Materials: +4%
Utilities: -1%
Industrials: -8%
Consumer Discretionary: -9%
Financials: -9%
Real Estate: -10%
Energy: -32%

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@DaMedinaR En 2018 se hablaba del mismo tema. El QE desde 2008 generó inflación en activos más no en consumo. Solo fue empezar a ajustar tasas, todo se desplomó. Volvieron a 💉 💸, se volvió a presentar el mismo fenómeno... vino Covid ti al suelo... 💉💸 y hasta #GME vio la gloria...

[The Macro Monkey @TheMacroMonkey]

@DaMedinaR Es verdad... la inflación está pero en ciertos sectores. La inflación en commodities no está siendo pasada al consumidor en su totalidad. Pues la liquidez inyectada por los BCs no llega a manos de quienes deberían llegar...

Súmale a eso los modelos de negocio deflacionarios...