Abdurrahman

Abdulrahman Muhammad Manga

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

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[Bello Saleh, PhD بيللؤ ساليح۔ @bellosaleh]

DRILLING FOR OIL IN THE NORTH:

@FinPlanKaluAja1, please permit me to add just a few corrections/comments on your take on @Imranmuhdz
post.

1. ‘Gowan has been there’ -

Wrong:
Gowon was never there. NNPC’s oil exploration efforts in the north started in the Chad Basin (Borno State) in the 1980s. Before then, there were colonial-era attempts but none went far and none had anythimg to do with the Nigerian government or the NNPC. So in either the pre- or post-independence case, Gowon was never there.

2. ‘If there were oil in commercial quantities in the frontier basin, it would have been found by now by Shell and Co, and they have looked’ -

Wrong again:
Your take on this is too simplistic. That is not how how oil exploration or field development works. In many oil regions of the world, the earlier explorationists were about to give up when one reluctant last attempt reveals a massive find. Three examples of this come to mind, the Oloibiri discovery in Nigeria, the Ekofisk discovery in Norway and the J. Paul Getty gamble in Saudi Arabia's 'Empty Quarter'; all were all about to be abandoned when their massive commercisl discoveries were made.

A country has basins, basins have fields, fields have plays. It is very possible that the field assigned to Shell and Co in the 1990s either has no hydrocarbons or has some oil or gas but not in commercial quantities. It is also possible the field they explored has hydrocarbons and they missed it. You can hit a dry well even in the most prolific field or basin.

As a side note, Shell & Co was in the Benue Trough in the 1990s not because they wanted to be there searching for oil, but because the then government made that a pre-condition before they were given any prospecting license in Nigeria's then very promising deepwater acreages. So they went, did the little they could get away with, and left.

Also, when all the oil majors operating in the country are now divesting their land, swamp and shallow water assets, why would you think Shell & Co would be eager to return to Nigeria's hinterland to start another unpleasant 'Ogoni-like' experience?

3. ‘Where is the Bauchi oil well today?’-

It is there - with an estimated one billion barrel reservoir. The Kolmani field straddles Bauchi and Gombe states (with most of it geographically in Gombe State). NNPC’s exploration efforts paid off and hydrocarbons in commercial quantities were discovered when an exploratory (wildcat) well in the Kolmani field hit a good pay.

You see, in this industry, the level of fool-proof science and technology applied makes it difficult to lie about stuff like this. A drill bit can't hit a dry pay and someone, somewhere has the temerity to have that logged as a commercial discovery just to win some stupid bragging rights.

Presently, the next step is to properly assess the discovery (by drilling appraisal wells) in locations of interest as selected through the analysis of collected data from the wildcat wells drilled and other information available even before the well was drilled. Or to drill at locations far away from any successful well(s) so as to ascertain the lateral extent of the field. I believe that is either what they are doing now or it is the next step for them to do (sorry not really been following since 2023).

It is only after the field is properly appraised that proper field development starts (ie, drilling additional wells into the reservoir, laying of pipelines, contsruction of oil terminals, refining plants, gas plants, etc). It will be after many years, and lots of money, before the Kolmani oil comes on stream. So please be patient anf follow the story.

4. 'The funds you are earmarking to fund oil wells should go towards developing solar, water dams, gas pipelines and water irrigation to turn the North of Nigeria into a garden of Eden' -

Wrong premise:
This is nether here nor there. Oil exploration in the north does not (and should not) be a reason why any of the other capital investments you mentioned should not take place. The two strands of development are not mutually exclusive. In any case, the two economic activities are hardly if ever carried our by the same economic players.

5. 'The North earned more FX for Nigeria without having crude oil. One can argue that the quest for crude oil made the North abandon the groundnut pyramids that generated the FX that the North used to develop.'-

Your first sentence is true. Your second sentence is wrong, again:
The decimation of the Nigerian economy as experienced (and which we are still experiencing from 1960s to date) has nothing to do with oil exploration in the northern part of the country. It is an economic circumstance that afflicts most countries that experience a boom in one sector which led to a decline in the other sectors of their economy.

It would be wrong to argue that the 'quest for crude oil made the north abandon the groundnut pyramids'. No it is not the quest, but the actual discovery, mismanagement of the revenue and generally poor ecnomic planning that had the country awash with more money than we know what to do with.

The shift in our focus from agriculture, a hitherto mainstay of our economy, because of such easy cash from oil affected the entire agricultural and manufacturing base of the country and not only the north.

This phenomenon is well known to economists and is called Dutch Disease (so named after the discovery of gas in Netherlands in the 50s led to the decimation of the Dutch economy). It is also called Resource Curse. As an economist you should know more about this than I do.

It is a global phenomenon only few countries succeed in escaping. So it is not only the northerners that abandoned groundnut, cotton and grains production, the southerners too abandoned cocoa and palm oil production because, who needs to go to the farm when one can come to the city and make more money by becoming a trader or a contractor. It is even worse in other countries; Gabon in Africa, Venezuela in Latin America and many Arabian Gulf countries are very good examples of this.

6. 'Oil in Nigeria is fool's gold'

On this, you are right. In fact I will take it further by saying 'Oil ANYWHERE is fool's gold'. Carlos Perez, the co-founder of OPEC, is more brutal in his take, he called it "The Devil's Excrement".

As a northerner (and an oil man) I am mighty glad for the Kolmani oil discovery. If not for any reason, at least, it balances the narratives and tasks us to argue about something else rather than who has oil or who hasn't.

But I also don't believe that a massive oil discovery in the north is the panacea to our developmental challenges. In fact, if the insecurity we are presently experiencing as occasioned by illegal solid minerals mining is anything to go by, it could aggravate those challenges if we are not careful.

The north and Nigeria have to work extra hard to turn the oil curse into a blessing, whether in the Niger Delta or the Sahel Savannah.

Below is the first page of and article I wrote 13 years ago (long before the Kolmani discovery) echoing these same sentiments.

Other similar viewpoints can be accessed from my
https://t.co/YL6jikjJ7n page.

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@MSIngawa The circled red apply now will direct u to the google form

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@ChidozieUg38987 @NigeriaStories Bross is dangote importing crude from NNPC, abi is NNPC no longer in Nigeria again?

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@ManagerT4 @MSIngawa Yeah sure

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@AustineOli18026 Not bad

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

#NewProfilePic

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@Emasco11 @Samuelpraise_ @yusufahayat @MSIngawa The first two about personal experience, while the last one concerning shell in particular

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@Emasco11 @Samuelpraise_ @yusufahayat @MSIngawa 3 logical questions each with its recording seperate, nothing more!

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@A_E_oziamara @MSIngawa Yes sure plz

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@MSIngawa Transcript is for foreign students fa

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@Samuelpraise_ @yusufahayat @MSIngawa I used my phone sir, and it worked perfectly all you have to do if u dont have a headset, for u to use phone microphone is to make sure when you get to the stage you will do video get the phone very close to your mouth, the camera will still pick your face

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@yusufahayat @MSIngawa I encountered exact issue myself, but i just carried on by selecting the available close to mine... The funny thing is no school from my state is even appearing.

I went along and took the test, it was exactly as the anonymous message stated wlhi.. But e long oo😁

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@KazeemJosh41749 @MSIngawa Myself it was for the entry level that i applied, but i'm not sure whichever one it is gaskiya

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@ElFaith3 @MSIngawa Actually the one i did was the first one, ama Its ok sha Wallahul Musta'an!

Thank you sir

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@MrOzor1 @BashirAhmaad Ritualist and expired drug sellers sympathizer

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@channelstv Na here i dey since dey wait for Action 😁😂

[Abdurrahman @TheManGha]

@ojeleyeopeyemi @Privilegedboygr @abdullahayofel @elrufai You said it yourself wike as a Governor flogged ameachi a former governor who was also an appointed minister then, and you think Bagudu a former governor can do something he couldn't do as a governor then as a minister haba bross