Manwel

[Manwel @TheManwel]

Just briefly read on the background of this so forgive me if I get details wrong. Basically, Jehoshaphat research (@JehoshaphatRsch) released 2 separate short reports (02/22/23) and (06/05/23) on Techtronic Industries. First report dropped the stock by more than the 20%. Some of the words used in first report were ‘manipulative accounting’ and ‘web of deceit.’

In august of 2023, Techtronic Industries filed a defamation lawsuit against Jehoshaphat research. Quinn Emanuel, who is representing Techtronic, also managed to figure out that Victor Bonilla is the person behind Jehoshaphat (was originally anonymous). Victor Bonilla owns a hedge fund Carrollwood Capital Management. For context, I don’t know the background of that person or the company, I’m just summarizing my understanding.

In January of 2024, both parties signed a document limiting the use of any confidential material uncovered solely to the current defamation case (aka Stipulated Protective Order). During discovery, a contract agreement was found detailing that Muddy Waters (@muddywatersre) and its related entities have commissioned Bonilla to produce these reports and had the exclusive right to short the stock (well well well).

Based on this discovery, Techtronic plans to initiate a separate lawsuit against Muddy Waters in the Western District of Texas (I don’t believe it has been filed yet). Because they had already signed a Protective Order, they were originally not allowed to use this material in their planned lawsuit against MW. Quinn Emanuel filed Motion requesting a modification of the protective order so that they could use the discovery materials in the collateral lawsuit against MW. MW opposed this modification, arguing that it could lead to the exposure of their confidential information.

Here is a quote from Quinn Emanuel’s motion: “In conjunction with publishing, Bonilla either shorts the stock of the company that he reports upon or coordinates with Muddy Waters to short the stock and pay him a portion of the profits.”

Just today (February 19, 2025) court in Tampa, Florida granted the plaintiffs’ motion to modify the protective order. They determined that the discovery documents were relevant and necessary for the plaintiffs’ claims in the anticipated Texas suit.

Summary/impact:
This is going to have a huge impact on these short sellers vs company cases. Companies will now be looking beyond the immediate critic to any accomplices who might benefit from the dissemination of contentious research. People will also now realize how uncredible MW has become. They will also realize that majority of these reports serve as a mere distraction to benefit at the expense of the company/shareholders rather than a geniune anaylsis of the business.

Basically, the same situation happened with $FTAI. 500 million dollars’ worth of notional value of short-term puts were purchased Jan 10-13 (it was so obvious, they didn’t even try to hide it). MW happens to release a short report on Jan 15 (dropped the stock by 50% in a few days). If the lawsuit against MW allows for investigation beyond Techtronic Industries and look at other companies, this can extend to FTAI. If FTAI or Fortress decide to take legal action against MW, this will likely extend beyond MW to others who benefited from the release of the report.

[Marc Cohodes @AlderLaneEggs]

For all the shit @muddywatersre talks, @quinnemanuel will skin Carson alive

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI GREAT EARNINGS AGAIN
-Incremental Equity Capital and SCI grows by $2B this year takes total investment from $4to $6B
-Return on equity was 27.4%.
- Acquired 190 aircraft in SCI I by 3Q
-Raised FY guide for '26 to 1.525B EBITDA from $1.4B
-2026 FCF guide of $1B
- Launched SCI II for 26
-Margin increased by 100bps
-Acquired ATOP in Miami to expand module production in Miami by 150 annually
-JV w/ Bauer on in-house engine accessories which generates 75K cost saves per shop visit

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI
I have been banging the drum for years. This is one of the single biggest equity winners of my career!

I understand this name better than most and I recently bought shares at $165. Why……

1- PMA approval expected any day will force re-rating
2- SCI #1 completion and #2 announcement in 4Q will force another re-rating
3- Rome…CEO stated last week Rome should be bigger than Montreal (DO THE MATH- Montreal is 400 going to 550 next year and Rome is 100 this year)
4- SE Asia…CEO stated last week they are on the hunt for a facility to expand market share
5- Partnerships- I fully expect them to announce a partnership in the near term with the major US Carrier who successfully tested their service in 2Q.

Lastly, here are the sell side community’s thoughts on
2026 EBITDA ESTIMATES & PRICE TARGET

Benchmark $1.574B w/ Price target $300
RBC $1.431B w/ Price target $160
MS $1.60B w/ Price target $175
Jeffries $1.436B w/ Price target $180
BTIG $1.567B w/ Price target $230

I think they will do ~$1.8B of EBITDA in ’26 and $2.25B+ in ’27

[Manwel @TheManwel]

@cmo040958 @justfactstruth No one

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI on top of all the positives below the CEO said the following in relation to PMA parts...

CEO Joe Adams at Jeffries -
"So the way I would describe the the total savings (per shop visit) with all five parts is $2.2-2.4mm. And the first two parts and the next part that’s coming is the most valuable part and most expensive part of the shop visit. And that’s the one we expect in the next month or so. That third part is about 60% of the savings. But most of the participants in the industry have been waiting for this third part because that is a significant needle mover in terms of savings before they commit to sort of PMA’ing a hot section of an engine. So that will drive further expansion in the market."

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI - Investor call going well

-CEO just stated Rome will do 200 Modules in 2026 which is double the 100 he will do in 2025.

-Upside w/ Major US Airlines- "We currently do engine swaps on assets FTAI owns and leases to them and should do many more engine swaps on assets they own or lease away from us as well"

-Free Cash Flow uses in 2H25 and beyond-
1- strong BB rating -
2- additional tack on investments for biz
3- stock buybacks

-PMA integration of HPT blade once approved- It will be integrated almost immediately!

[Manwel @TheManwel]

$FTAI

Will give my more detailed write up later today/week when I find time, but the others have done a great job summarizing already.

Overall very bullish and congrats to all who have held through all the nonsense last several months.

We stayed consistent and judged based on fundamentals and not price action. We were just early and the market is now realizing its true value. Like I said before 30-35b market cap long term without a doubt.

Very good year and very good picks. Highest conviction was FTAI and still is. Cheers 🥂

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI
-2Q revenues 676mm vs 545mm consensus
-EPS $1.58 vs $1.34 Consensus
-1H Modules 322.....2Q up 33% vs 1Q 25
-2H Module guide now 428...up another 33% from 1H25
-FY25 Free Cash Flow target now $750mm from 650
-Aero prod EBITDA 2Q $165mm... +26% Q/Q
-Leasing EBITDA 2Q $200mm...+23% Q/Q
-Repaid 200mm Debt and still 309mm Cash on hand
-SCI now owns 145 aircraft worth 2.2B and on track to deploy $1.8B balance into additional 118 for 266 total

****************************************************************
Do yourself a favor and look at P/E and EBITDA/EV multiple for the comps and tell me where this should trade $TDG $HEI $SARO $GE $AL $AR

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI.......Anything below $135 is CHEAP.

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI Read through from GE Aerospace earnings
-2Q internal shop visit revenue +22% … higher output, workscopes and price
-2Q spare parts revenue >25% … higher volume and price

-----------------------------------
Cost of engine services increases and spare parts price increases which is great for FTAI as they expanded parts inventory last year and in 1Q 2025 and can easily push through higher prices now and going forward!

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI
$GE $HEI $TDG all very close to ALL TIME HIGH

FTAI best growth rate, best margins, best business mix and getting ZERO credit for SCI - which will own 150-160 planes when they report!
Just keep adding!!!

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI Citibank investor meeting / dinner July 9th

A Post Card From New York
Opening 90-Day Positive Catalyst Watch

Fortress Aviation (FTAI) expressed optimism about the global engine module growth, their development of their aircraft leasing partnership and for growing potential for authorities to grant the final green light on Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) for CFM56 engine modules.

Over the next three months, we expect FTAI to announce its final PMA approval for the CFM56 engine. Once this occurs, this event could propel the company’s engine module volumes, boost aerospace EBITDA and increase FCF generation. This announcement could also lead FTAI’s shares to recoup at least some of their lost valuation, considering that the stock is 39% below its 52-week high. Key risks to this call include additional top down uncertainty in the US, which could dampen investor risk appetite, as well as any factor or event that could impact the global reputation of CFM56 engine modules.

Citi hosted a client dinner with FTAI. Management participants included CEO Joe Adams, CFO Angela Nam, COO David Moreno, IR Head Alan Andreini and Financial Planning & Analysis VP Nicholas McAleese. The key takeaways were as follows:

Rome-
The acquisition of the Italian module operations..Mr. Adams mentioned that FTAl's recent acquisition of engine module ops in Rome, had consisted of former Alitalia operations near the international airport in Rome. In addition to expanding its global engine module footprint, global aircraft/engine lessor and engine module maintenance, repair & exchange (MRE) provider FTAI suggested that acquiring facilities from a now-defunct airline had occurred at undemanding valuations.
.....fortified FTAl's module portfolio: FTAl mentioned that the Italian module ops are authorized to sell modules to China — a capability that the company's Miami and Montreal facilities had lacked. Although Western aircraft lessors have been reducing their exposure to China, management seemed bullish about the potential to grow their engine module business in that market.
Moreover, while FTAl's Miami operations function primarily as a module hospital and Montreal is a place where the co does full-blown module building, management sees the Italian operations falling somewhere in between these two.

SCI-
Strategic capital initiative: In addition to providing high returns for its partners, FTAl's strategic capital initiative (SCI) appears to be helping FTAl to transition to an asset-light, FCF-generating entity. In response to a meeting participant's inquiry, Ms. Nam mentioned that FTAl equipment purchases from SCI must be at competitive (market) rates- or this could create a consolidation issue. Ms. Nam also stated that FTAl maintains a minority interest in SCI.

Who are FTAI customers-
Discount airlines and/or many carriers in Southeast Asia would appear to be obvious engine module customers, as many of these airlines are already likely to be CFM56 engine customers or have some compatibility with this equipment. However, FTAI mentioned that large, full-service carriers that have their own, significant, internal maintenance, repair & overhaul (MRO) operations have also been important module customers. These entities tend to buy modules from FTAI - and once the company receives full-blown PMA on the CFM56, these airlines might also start buying PMA engines.

-----------------------------------------------------------
My two cents on recent stock performance
IWM vs IWB
With the recent promotion from Russell 2000 --> Russell 1000 a massive technical overhang of ~6.9mm shares was created. This has now been exhausted and I expect shares to rally into earnings that should be v. strong.
For comparison FTAI went from being a top 3 holding of the $IWM Russell 2000 ($66B AUM and 35mm shares a day) widely considered the benchmark for smaller U.S. stocks w/ many tracking indices / funds to the bottom of the $IWB Russell 1000 ($40B AUM and 1.2mm shares a day) which is much less followed / benchmarked.

[Manwel @TheManwel]

Solid trade: $KEP up +21%, $PSN +9%, and $MRVL +4% since we picked them. If followed, taking some profit from $KEP this week. Will let the rest play out.

[Manwel @TheManwel]

Selling $APP $TTD and $NVDA (all were picked up as swing trades).

Picking up $PSN $KEP and $MRVL instead. Rest of position are same with minor adjustments here and there. Trimmed gold a lot.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

How can people be expected to have faith in Trump if he won’t release the Epstein files?

[Manwel @TheManwel]

@kingkang80 I'm seeing very similar signs to before they published the one in January

[Manwel @TheManwel]

@Sankaty_Head Yes of course, agreed 100%

[Manwel @TheManwel]

If $VIX takes out the March 25th lows (below 16) I think you'll see a lot of the side line money start to fomo in. $IWM and other small caps would rally on that.

[Manwel @TheManwel]

Selling $APP $TTD and $NVDA (all were picked up as swing trades).

Picking up $PSN $KEP and $MRVL instead. Rest of position are same with minor adjustments here and there. Trimmed gold a lot.

[Manwel @TheManwel]

Lots of people freaking out today over bond market, but there are few reasons it could be hapeening, I listed below. Overall, I still believe in a very strong rally this summer. I do think the economy is headed into the right path but the stock market may struggle to move higher after the last rally (not necessairly a bad thing, people need to stop assuming that green stock market = good economy).

1- Selling to meet margin calls
2- Basis trade
3- Some countries dumping
4- It's not seen as a source of safety anymore

Probably 1 and 2 most likely or a combination of everything.

I'm still holding, my positions are:

50% $GLD

15% $FTAI
5% $Root
3% $OKLO
3% $TEM
3% $APP
3% $VST
3% $DAVE
15% Cash

Looking to pick up $TTD today. Would love to get $NVDA too at lower price.

[Manwel @TheManwel]

$FTAI 🦢🦢

[Manwel @TheManwel]

$FTAI - Setting up for one of the greatest run-ups. Not often do many things align together, but when they do, this is where you see those extreme outlier moves.

The fundaments of the company have only improved from 6 month ago, yet the stock is at 118 instead of 175.

We saw increased guidance for both 2025 and 2026.

We saw aerospace margins expand and trend upward.

We saw expansion into Europe that would increase module capacity by 33% from 1350 to 1800 swaps a year.

We saw expansion in the number of customers for the module factory.

We saw PMA II get approved and updates that PMA III is getting closer to approval.

We saw both preferred A and B being bought up (reduces dividend payment).

We saw plans about expanding the same model used for CFM-56 to newer engine models in the future as the OEM retire production (LEAP).

We saw sale of 143m of offshore energy vessels and 41m in asset recovery claims (still waiting on 100m).

We saw recent cluster insider buying (see image).

We saw a massive SCI deal (4b) being agreed upon and completed. This is equivalent to 1/2 of all United Airlines entire 737NG and A320ceo fleet. Imagine you get a headline that FTAI will be doing maintenance for 1/2 of all the CFM-56 United Airlines owns, but better because they will earn a management fee, will not have to raise debt, and can better plan out the shop events.

Almost all current shareholders are holding for the long term. Anyone who wanted to exit already did the last 6 month. This reduces liquidity tremendously above certain key levels. After 125, the sky is the limit. Latest short interest data had 6.8 million short OI, so you are looking for at least 3-4 million shares to be covered. Forced trading into low liquidity is what creates volatility events. Look at the squeezes stocks like $TTD or $HIMS had and you will likely see a similar reaction. With the general market rallying into this summer, it creates the perfect run-up.

You have two announcements that will act as catalysts any time now (Finalizing of Europe deal + PMA III). Europe deal I anticipate closes very soon (PMA much harder to predict). The anticipation alone of either will move the stock, and it becomes a race of who can cover faster. Production and margins will expand for the rest of 2025, which the stock will front run the next few weeks. Q2 2025 Aerospace EBITDA will exceed Leasing EBITDA, and you might see for the first time industrial accounting being reported (the stock will also front run this).

You will likely see 4-5 weeks of consistent bullish action. I don't use technical indicators, but I look at it to understand how momentum traders position. The 1W chart never looked more bullish with momentum shifting for the first time since 12/2024. These are the opportunities that distinguish good traders/investors from great ones. If you decide to play along or add shares, please please please do so now and not when the stock is trading at all time highs.

I made really great calls last several months (not just on FTAI but general market too), however, I’m not always right and we all know the market can humble anyone very quickly. However, I do a lot of research behind any trade/investment I get involved in. I have been consistent throughout and don’t change my long term view based on price action.

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI 200 Day MA $125.75.....About to go bonkers!

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$FTAI- Closes acquisition of Quick Turn Europe
-Located at Rome Fiumicino Airport, IAG Engine Center Europe, the facility features extensive piece-part repair capabilities and includes a state-of-the-art test cell. -Situated at one of Europe's busiest airports, which serves 91 airlines and approximately 50 million passengers annually, IAG Engine Center Europe benefits from Fiumicino's unparalleled connectivity across Europe
-Adds third owned and managed CFM56 engine shop to FTAI Aviation network
-Increases FTAI’s module maintenance capacity by 450 modules (150 engines) per year, representing a 33% increase to FTAI’s current capacity of 1,350 modules (450 engines)
-At full capacity this brings FTAI’s maintenance capacity to 1,800 CFM56 modules and over 600 engine tests annually.
-State-of-the-art CFM56 engine test-cell
-Expects to quickly ramp up production, with piece-part repair capabilities anticipated to be operational in second half of 2025