SoSoValue Flash: Severe Geopolitical Reignited, CPI Holds Steady, Heavy Capex Warnings Trigger Tech Volatility
💥 Core Catalyst:
The Middle East situation has sharply re-escalated. Dissatisfied with slow talks, Trump threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges if a deal isn't signed. Following the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter, the U.S. launched nearly 4 hours of retaliatory airstrikes, claiming Iran's control capability in the strait was eliminated (which Iran denies). In response, Iran issued stern warnings and the Strait of Hormuz has been fully closed. Iran fired dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at 21 key strategic Gulf targets, including a U.S. base in Jordan.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro Risks: Trump's hawkish military threats have fundamentally disrupted the market’s prior baseline assumption that he would avoid reopening active hostilities. However, the macro front received some insulation as the May CPI print arrived broadly in line (with core slightly below expectations). Feared second-round effects from oil pass-through, World Cup distortions, and endogenous inflation failed to materialize.
2️⃣ Liquidity Drain: U.S. equities remain locked in a tug-of-war between macro anxiety and secular AI momentum. On the capital front, the ongoing SpaceX IPO continues to absorb significant institutional liquidity. The trading desk notes a broader decline in secondary market depth, which is amplifying short-term volatility across major indices.
3️⃣ Capex Concerns: AI momentum continues to consolidate at elevated levels during a post-ComputeX catalyst vacuum. While Oracle's post-close earnings and guidance matched consensus, its massive $40 billion equity and debt fundraising blueprint for the next fiscal year reignited fierce market anxieties over over-extended capex. Shares plunged 11% after-hours, acting as a direct drag on tech sentiment.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC | $TSM
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SoSoValue Flash: Israel-Iran Conflict Pauses Under Maximum Pressure, Markets Face Catalyst Vacuum Ahead of Volatility Week
💥 Core Catalyst:
The Israel-Iran conflict re-escalated on Monday as Israel struck central and western Iranian targets in retaliation for Sunday's strikes, while Houthi rebels launched missiles at central Israel and threatened a full Red Sea blockade. Following Trump's maximum pressure and a call to Netanyahu, both sides formally announced a suspension of mutual attacks. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran talks continue; Iran's President stated they remain at the table, and Trump claimed negotiations are ongoing with a path to "total victory" within two weeks.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro & Yields: The military escalation has weakened market expectations for a June strait reopening. The 10Y Treasury yield is slowly edging higher, building macro pressure; a clean break above 4.6% could trigger accelerated selling. Overall, U.S. equities remain locked in a tactical tug-of-war between macro and AI forces.
2️⃣ Sector Rotation: Following Friday's oversold conditions, the most tightly crowded AI hardware clusters—memory and CPU—staged the earliest rebound. Conversely, mega-cap tech stocks continue their orderly pullback on thin overall market volume, indicating that broader risk appetite is still in a recovery phase.
3️⃣ AI & Volatility: With ComputeX now concluded, the AI sector has entered a short-term catalyst vacuum, favoring a high-altitude consolidation pattern. Volatility is expected to spike later this week, driven sequentially by Wednesday's CPI, Thursday's PPI, Wednesday's post-close Oracle earnings, and Friday's highly anticipated SpaceX (SPCX) IPO.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI & SPCX: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC | $SPCX
SoSoValue Flash: Geopolitical Escalation Shocks Markets, Strong NFP Elevates Hike Pricing, Tech Crowding Liquidates
💥 Core Catalyst:
Israel's strike on Beirut breached Trump's red line, triggering the most severe exchange of ballistic missiles and retaliatory airstrikes between the U.S. and Iran since the April ceasefire. Trump called for restraint and a return to talks. Concurrently, the massive May NFP beat paired with uncertain negotiation speed lifted market rate-hike expectations.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro & Fed: Strong employment data deflated Fed rate-cut justifications, pushing Treasury yields higher and forcing the market to price in hike possibilities. The Fed is expected to hold in June, but a Q4 pivot to tightening remains on the table if oil stays elevated.
2️⃣ Crowded Outflows: Following excessive gains, the tech sector suffered from overcrowded profit-taking. A series of headlines—including softer Broadcom sentiment, Google's completed issuance, Meta's debt plans, and potential memory cuts in NVIDIA's Rubin chips—triggered the selloff.
3️⃣ AI & Volatility: With ComputeX concluded, AI is entering a range-bound consolidation period due to a near-term catalyst vacuum. This week's core volatility drivers include Wednesday's CPI, Thursday's PPI, Oracle's earnings, and Friday's SpaceX IPO.
Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI & SPAC: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC | $SPAC
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SoSoValue Flash: Trump Signals Restraint on Iran, Tech Profit-Taking Triggers Broad Market Seesaw
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran Shadows
According to a WSJ report, Trump has no intention of restarting a full-scale war against Iran. This statement successfully contained market fears that recent fierce military clashes would spiral out of control, pulling oil prices off their highs. However, structural friction remains: both Hezbollah and the Iranian Ministry of Defense issued official statements refusing to implement the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, ensuring the geopolitical layout remains fluid.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ BoJ Normalization: Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Japan is actively considering a rate hike at its upcoming June 15–16 policy meeting. Against the backdrop of global energy sticky costs, the BoJ’s hawkish normalization plans are emerging as a critical anchor for global liquidity pricing.
2️⃣ Market Seesaw: U.S. equities experienced a stark "seesaw" rotation. As war fears eased and oil retreated, capital rotated back into cyclicals, lifting the Dow by 1.7%. Concurrently, softer-than-expected earnings from Broadcom dinged semiconductor sentiment, prompting a healthy pullback in highly crowded memory and CPU names after a string of historic highs, while mega-cap tech staged a tactical rebound.
3️⃣ AI Alignment: AI remains the non-negotiable anchor of the equity market as investors adapt to heightened volatility. While the imminent SpaceX listing and an accelerating pipeline for private mega-IPOs like Anthropic continue to act as a liquidity drain on secondary-market Big Tech, institutional consensus views the current hardware chop as a technical consolidation within an intact uptrend rather than a structural reversal.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
SoSoValue Flash: Severe Middle East Clash Shocks Peace Talks, Section 301 Tariff Revival Adds Macro Tail-Risk
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran Shadows
The geopolitical landscape suffered a severe whipsaw just as Trump signaled that U.S.–Iran talks were heading toward a potential weekend deal (with an immediate Hormuz reopening upon signing). The most serious military clash since the April ceasefire erupted as Iranian missiles and drones struck the U.S. naval base in Bahrain and Kuwait's civilian airport, suspending all Kuwaiti flights. In a heavy retailation, the U.S. launched major airstrikes on southern Iran, heavily targeting Qeshm Island—the critical chokepoint at the mouth of Hormuz.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Tariff & Regulation: A major policy headwind re-emerged as the USTR announced plans to impose 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 trading partners under Section 301. This serves as the administration's pivot after the Supreme Court struck down previous emergency tariff orders. Written comments close July 6, with public hearings scheduled for July 7, injecting fresh trade-war friction into macro pricing.
2️⃣ Macro & Fed Path: The May ISM Services PMI beat expectations and the May ADP print came in slightly above forecasts, underscoring a highly resilient U.S. labor market. This economic firming solidifies the Fed's pause for the June meeting. However, with the physical conflict in Iran keeping energy tape hot, a persistent oil shock keeps the door wide open for a potential Q4 tightening pivot.
3️⃣ AI Hardware FOMO: AI remains the non-negotiable anchor of the equity market. Investors are actively absorbing heightened volatility and doubling down on hardware crowding. While the imminent SpaceX IPO and accelerating pipelines for Anthropic continue to turn mega-cap Big Tech into a source of capital liquidity outflows, structural hardware demand keeps the sector's FOMO intact.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
SoSoValue Flash: Partial Lebanon Ceasefire Brokered, Big Tech Unleashes Massive Capital Wave
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran ShadowsGeopolitical dynamics took a sharp turn as Trump brokered a partial Lebanon-Hezbollah ceasefire, resolving a temporary freeze in negotiations after Iran suspended talks over the Israeli military incursions. Trump noted he expects a U.S.-Iran deal "within one week." However, friction persists as Netanyahu clarified the ceasefire does not halt IDF ground operations in southern Lebanon, prompting Lebanese officials to head to Washington on Wednesday to seek a broader pause.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro Resilience: The U.S. May ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, signaling continued industrial improvement and reinforcing broad market confidence in U.S. economic resilience. With growth steady and energy tracking hot, the Fed is widely expected to hold in June; however, a Q4 rate hike pivot remains a structural tail-risk if oil stays sticky at these levels.
2️⃣ AI Capital Wave: Mega-cap capital raising is accelerating to a frantic pace. Anthropic has confidentially filed its draft S-1 with the SEC, while Google announced a massive $80 billion equity fundraising plan. This capital market blitz provides massive fresh liquidity to sustain the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout.
3️⃣ Market Equilibrium: U.S. equities remain balanced in a tug-of-war between macro risk management and AI momentum. Trump’s swift ceasefire intervention demonstrates a firm resolve to protect the broader U.S.-Iran negotiation channel. While the "AI top" debate persists, robust sector fundamentals, solid earnings, and an improving macro backstop indicate that recent pullbacks are corrections rather than a structural peak.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
SoSoValue Flash: Trump Tightens Iran Terms to Inject Fresh Uncertainty, Fed Split Eases Macro Strain
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran ShadowsPresident Trump convened a two-hour War Room meeting on Friday, significantly revising and tightening the terms of the Iran MOU. The revised text, which critically alters the "uranium disposal arrangements" and "Hormuz reopening wording," has been sent to Tehran. Iran is expected to take around 3 days to respond, pushing a potential final deal out by "a week or more" and delaying the anticipated normalization of Strait throughput.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Fed Internal Split: Fed Vice Chair Bowman expressed support for retaining dovish rate-cut language in the upcoming June 17 FOMC statement. In the context of a broader hawkish tilt under the "Warsh Era," this internal divide over whether to keep an easing bias provides a temporary sentiment buffer for equity liquidity.
2️⃣ Macro Realignment: While a pause at the June meeting remains the consensus, the macro outlook remains hostage to energy costs. If Tehran rejects Trump's tightened terms and high oil persists, a Q4 hike pivot stays on the table. For now, the market is pricing a framework deal as the baseline but remains highly sensitive to re-escalation risks within the 60-day window.
3️⃣ AI Continuation: The "AI top" debate continues to build, but overwhelming secular tailwinds, solid earnings, and a slightly softer macro environment argue against a full reversal. Volatility is being treated as a correction within an intact uptrend, with capital continuously re-engaging core leadership ahead of new hardware cycles and the upcoming AI IPO wave.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
SoSoValue Flash: Iran Deal Denials Muddle Sentiment, Fed & BoJ Pivot Hawkish
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran Shadows
The market’s "peace rally" hit a snag as the White House and Trump administration officially denied the leaked MOU terms regarding sanctions relief and shared control of Hormuz. While both sides remain motivated to resolve the conflict, the transition from back-channel leaks to formal negotiation has proven volatile, leaving oil prices sensitive to every headline.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Fed Pivot: The "Warsh Era" at the Fed has begun with a distinctly hawkish flavor. By signaling support for removing "easing bias" and emphasizing the costs of entrenched inflation, Warsh has effectively shifted market focus toward potential Q4 rate hikes rather than cuts.
2️⃣ BoJ Shift: Governor Ueda’s characterization of the current energy crisis as a "fifth oil shock" has served as a formal warning to markets. With OIS pricing now suggesting a 75% probability of a 25bp hike in June, Japan is moving toward a decisive normalization phase.
3️⃣ AI & Market: AI remains the primary anchor for U.S. equities. While speculative headlines caused semiconductor volatility, the fundamental narrative—fueled by robust hyperscaler capex and NVIDIA’s structural dominance—persists. Markets are currently treating macro-headline "wobbles" as opportunities for consolidation within the broader AI uptrend.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
🚨SoSoValue Flash: Iran Peace Deal Nears & Memory Stocks Hit $1T Milestone
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran Shadows
A framework deal is crystallizing. Reports confirm narrowing gaps: Iran secures half of its $24B in frozen assets immediately upon signing, with the remainder due in 60 days. Crucially, the U.S. has dropped the demand for direct custody of Iran’s highly-enriched uranium, accepting a third-party arrangement.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Memory Supercycle: A new "Trillion-Dollar" era for memory. Micron (MU) surged 19% as UBS hiked its price target to $1,625, citing a regime change from cyclical volatility to stable, long-term supply agreements; Micron has joined SK Hynix in the $1 trillion market cap club. The launch of 2x leveraged ETFs for Korean chip giants on May 27 further catalyzed this capital rush.
2️⃣ NVIDIA Vera Pivot: NVIDIA’s Vera CPU has officially arrived, outperforming top-tier Intel and AMD x86 processors in independent benchmarks. Designed for "agentic AI" with 1.2TB/s of memory bandwidth, Vera is now the focal point of the AI hardware debate and a key driver of future data center dominance.
3️⃣ Macro Policy: With Kevin Warsh at the helm and a hawkish FOMC tilt, the "macro tug-of-war" persists. Oil is the primary swing factor; should it remain elevated, market pricing will pivot away from H2 cuts toward a potential Q4 hike.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
SoSoValue Flash: Iran Peace Framework Nears Finalization, Fed Enters "Warsh Era"
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran Shadows
Peace talks are in the final phase. On May 23, Trump signaled that a near-term deal is largely agreed upon following high-level coordination with key Middle Eastern players and Pakistan.
Two-Phase Draft: Phase 1 involves clearing Strait of Hormuz mines, lifting the port blockade, waiving select oil sanctions, and unfreezing $26B in Iranian assets. Phase 2 initiates a 60-day formal nuclear negotiation window.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro Policy: Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, striking a hawkish tone emphasizing institutional independence and omitting any mention of rate cuts. With Governor Waller now pivoting away from dovishness—backing the removal of "easing-bias" language—the market is beginning to price in a potential 25bp hike by December.
2️⃣ Market Dynamics: Equities remain a tug-of-war. While re-escalation risks are essentially priced out, market euphoria is constrained by the "Warsh Era" uncertainty. All eyes are on the speed of Hormuz throughput recovery and whether the 60-day negotiation window holds.
3️⃣ AI Capital: AI remains the undisputed market leader. Despite building "top" narratives, the combination of strong industry trends, robust earnings, and an accelerating wave of AI IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) reinforces the base case that current price action is a consolidation within a structural uptrend, not a reversal.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
🚨SoSoValue Flash: Iran Peace Framework Nears Finalization, Fed Enters "Warsh Era"
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran ShadowsPeace talks are in the final phase. On May 23, Trump signaled that a near-term deal is largely agreed upon following high-level coordination with key Middle Eastern players and Pakistan. Two-Phase Draft: Phase 1 involves clearing Strait of Hormuz mines, lifting the port blockade, waiving select oil sanctions, and unfreezing $26B in Iranian assets. Phase 2 initiates a 60-day formal nuclear negotiation window.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro Policy: Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, striking a hawkish tone emphasizing institutional independence and omitting any mention of rate cuts. With Governor Waller now pivoting away from dovishness—backing the removal of "easing-bias" language—the market is beginning to price in a potential 25bp hike by December.
2️⃣ Market Dynamics: Equities remain a tug-of-war. While re-escalation risks are essentially priced out, market euphoria is constrained by the "Warsh Era" uncertainty. All eyes are on the speed of Hormuz throughput recovery and whether the 60-day negotiation window holds.
3️⃣ AI Capital: AI remains the undisputed market leader. Despite building "top" narratives, the combination of strong industry trends, robust earnings, and an accelerating wave of AI IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) reinforces the base case that current price action is a consolidation within a structural uptrend, not a reversal.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTCMAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPLAI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
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SoSoValue Flash: Iran Peace Nears & AI IPO Wave Ignite Market Sentiment
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran ShadowsU.S.–Iran talks are in the final phase, with Trump signaling patience for a "right answer" from Tehran. Hormuz transit shows significant progress: 26 vessels transited in coordination with Iran over the past 24 hours, including a South Korean tanker, marking a symbolic milestone for Strait stability.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Supply Chain: Samsung Electronics reached an initial wage deal, postponing the strike previously set for May 21 and alleviating immediate supply-side fears for DRAM/NAND.
2️⃣ AI & IPO Wave: The AI capital markets are heating up: SpaceX filed its S-1 for a mid-June listing; OpenAI is prepping a September IPO; and Anthropic is projecting 26Q2 revenue of $10.9B with operating profitability. This IPO trio, combined with NVIDIA’s solid earnings print, reinforces the long-term AI growth thesis.
3️⃣ Macro & Equities: Peace expectations are cooling energy and rates: Brent slipped from $110 to $105, and the 10Y yield dipped below 4.6%. This macro tailwind is providing fresh fuel for the AI-led equity rebound.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
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🚨SoSoValue Flash: Great Power Diplomacy & Liquidity Squeeze, Markets Brace for NVDA Earnings
💥 Core Catalyst: Truce Extensions & Tehran ShadowsTrump has warned of fresh strikes within 2–3 days if no deal is reached (potentially Friday–Sunday or early next week), though the market continues to price in "TACO" (Talk-and-Carry-On) as the base case. On Monday night, Vladimir Putin landed in Beijing ahead of his summit with Xi, signaling deepening China-Russia coordination.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Macro & Yields: The 10Y U.S. Treasury yield briefly neared 4.7% as major sell-side desks lifted targets above 4.6%, triggering a wave of stop-loss selling. G7 finance ministers, including Bessent, provided no rate-soothing signals, deflating expectations for a "policy backstop" and further pressuring liquidity.
2️⃣ AI Portfolio: The "is AI topping?" debate continues to build, but strong industry trends and earnings fundamentals argue against a structural reversal—a pullback remains the more likely scenario.
3️⃣ Event Pivot: NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday after the bell stand as this week's primary pivot. With expectations at a fever pitch, the results are set to be the dominant source of market volatility.
📊 Trade Setup (SoDEX Assets to Watch):
Core: $USTECH-100 | $CL (Crude) | $XAUT | $BTC
MAG7: $NVDA | $AMZN | $GOOGL | $META | $MSFT | $TSLA | $AAPL
AI Hardware: $SNDK | $MU | $AMD | $INTC
Macro risk is rising, oil remains the key variable, and $NVDA earnings could decide this week’s AI trade.
We turned today’s SoDEX Market Brief into a short video.
Watch the key setup before the market moves. 👇
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