The Neural Network

An A.I newsletter written by A.I - with a bit of human input

[The Neural Network @TheNeuralNetw]

@furatena_inc @Kalshi Yes

[TruthBeTold @RuffledCanary]

@AdameMedia Trump will go down in history as the absolute worst, least principled, most compromised president in US history. He brought this on himself by listening to Israel and doing what was expedient instead of what was right. You reap what you sow.

[Benjamin Uzoma @Unlimited_BU]

@AdameMedia If the US really promised no attacks while negotiating and then attacked anyway, that's not just a betrayal of Iran. That's a betrayal of every future negotiating partner who might consider talking to United States. Why would anyone trust the US after that?

[Ali Hamza @hamzitron]

@AdameMedia BREAKING: JOE KENT says all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies agree Iran is not building nuclear weapons.

While Israel claims Iran could assemble nukes in weeks.

Israel has totally sabotaged the DEAL !!!

[The Figen @TheFigen_]

Japanese actor Hiroyuki Sanada spoke about the contradictions of human nature:

“Some people dream of having a swimming pool at home, while those who have one hardly ever use it. Those who have lost a loved one feel a profound sense of loss, while others often complain about their living relatives. Those without a partner long for one, while those who have one often don't appreciate it. The hungry would give anything for a meal, while the satiated complain about the taste of their food. Those without a car dream of owning one, while those who have a car are always looking for a better one.”

The key to happiness is gratitude: truly seeing and appreciating what we already have, and understanding that somewhere, someone would give anything for what we take for granted.

[CuriousMindX63 @PhDStudent63]

The disconnect is insane: sirens blaring, homes burning in Nahariya, injuries mounting, yet Israeli TV sells dreams of toppling Tehran and crushing the resistance. Reality hitting hard in the north. Axis standing strong #Hezbollah #FreePalestine #AxisOfResistance #EndZionism #OccupiedPalestine

[Auwerl_CY 👨🏻‍💻📊💰💪🏻 @ElSararer]

Northern Israel is getting hammered right now Hezbollah just launched dozens of rockets + drones tonight, hitting spots residential building direct hit, several injured including kids, Karmiel home damaged, and more sirens across Galilee. Some got intercepted, others caused fires and shrapnel mess.

Israel kicked off "limited" ground ops in south Lebanon yesterday, pushing deeper for a buffer zone, while pounding Beirut suburbs and Hezbollah spots hard. But Hezbollah's still firing heavy claims targeting bases, though civilians are catching it too.

Israeli media's all about "crushing Hezbollah" and regime change vibes in Iran with big assassinations like Larijani/Soleimani types, but reality's a grind: daily barrages, evacuations ongoing, damages downplayed/censored locally.

It's scary how routine this feels, hilarious how both sides claim total wins while it's stuck in bloody stalemate. Total disconnect. 🇮🇱🇮🇷

[Alon Mizrahi @alon_mizrahi]

Dozens of Hezbollah drones are currently in the air over occupied Palestine

[Alon Mizrahi @alon_mizrahi]

Hezbollah is wreaking havoc throughout northern occupied Palestine, with probably the biggest attack on Israel it has ever launched. Damages are under heavy censorship and Israeli state media is feeding the people fantasies about regime change in Iran, destroying Hezbollah and changing West Asia. Scary, hilarious, total disconnect

[Dr. Simon @goddek]

@RabbiPoupko Menachem Begin later turned into a terrorist wanted for murder. Only morally bankrupt scum would glorify someone like that.

[Kim Dotcom @KimDotcom]

Iran released a video

[Maala Iyyappan @iyya_2026]

@KimDotcom @RealScottRitter

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

Bottom is in.

[Big Z 🇸🇴 @BigZa2323]

@AdameMedia

[Walker⚡️ @WalkerAmerica]

If you bought $1 of Bitcoin every time @PeterSchiff tweeted about Bitcoin (p~1,836 times since 2013), you'd have ~0.174 BTC today — cost basis $1,836, current value ~$11,500 (at ~$66,000/BTC), for a ~525% gain.

If you bought $1 of gold instead every time he tweeted about Bitcoin, you'd have ~0.45 oz — cost basis still $1,836, current value ~$2,300–$2,400 (at ~$5,070/oz), for a ~25–35% gain.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[رضا حاجیلو ♂= ♀ @Rezahajilo97838]

@AdameMedia This photo is from two years ago and is related to a pro-Palestine demonstration.
Second, people in Iran who oppose the Islamic Republic never carry Palestinian flags with them.

The nature of Muslims is to lie.

[Strategy @Strategy]

Strategy has acquired 22,305 BTC for ~$2.13 billion at ~$95,284 per bitcoin. As of 1/19/2026, we hodl 709,715 $BTC acquired for ~$53.92 billion at ~$75,979 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRE https://t.co/6hpAeOxp2I

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

Strategy bought an eye-watering $3.38B of BTC over the past two weeks ($1.25B + $2.13B). Plenty of takes on these moves, but I want to provide some color on what they're doing to the capital structure, which I find to be especially notable.

Firstly, STRC is obviously having its moment in the sun. $119M two weeks ago, $294M this past week—all while STRC stays pinned within 1% of face value.

This $STRC issuance has been in tandem with a large amount of $MSTR ATM . What does this mean, and is this accretive for shareholders?

Most MSTR was sold between 1.0x-1.10x mNAV. This is accretive in net asset terms, however with market cap below the value of BTC holdings, in isolation, it would be negative to BTC/share. However, Saylor is intelligently pairing the MSTR ATM with the STRC ATM. STRC was ~14% the size of MSTR issuance over this period. In BTC per fully-diluted share terms, despite selling of common with BTC below market cap value (while indeed above 1.0x in enterprise value terms), BTC per fully diluted common shares increased over the past two weeks —up 0.4% on the year. So, indeed accretive, but in my view, the bigger story is the focus on deleveraging the convertible bonds to focus on attaining "amplification" through prefs instead.

If we assume constant 92K BTC for consistency, from the start of the year to today:

Converts (less USD) as % of BTC: 9.67% → 9.18%
Prefs (less USD) as % of BTC: 9.19% → 9.36%

Strategy has flipped its outstanding convertible debt with notional prefs, which of course never come due in principal. In just one year.

Why is this being done? Strategy's team has made clear they see the perpetual pref (dubbed "digital credit") as the big idea. The fact that prefs can IPO, with ATMs attached, with no maturity cliff speaks for itself.

But I believe there's an additional motivation potentially: minimizing the gamma effect convertible debt has on the credit spreads of the prefs.

If you correctly view the convertible bonds as debt + an equity call option, at $400 MSTR the weighted delta on the converts was approximately 73%. The market effectively viewed Strategy as having ~$2.18B of effective debt with ~$6.06B that would become equity. This is rough back-of-napkin math, but you can use Black-Scholes to input the convertible bond strikes and first put dates, you can approximate a delta for each bond. In aggregate, you get a weighted average delta.

So yes, while technically $8.2B of debt has been outstanding for almost a year, the market doesn't
treat this as 100% debt—it probabilistically moves with MSTR stock price.

When BTC fell sharply in November and MSTR (as well as all other BTC proxies) followed, the stock price falling essentially partially 'de-equitized' the converts. A move from $400 to $150 is sort of like ~$2.5B more debt becoming senior to the prefs. The delta of the converts—their sensitivity to MSTR price—changed. This change in delta is called gamma.

The point here is that it wasn't necessarily just BTC NAV itself contracting that changed the profile of the prefs in the eyes of some credit investors. It was BTC price moving MSTR price, which impacted the likelihood of conversion of the converts, which impacted the assumed senior liabilities above the prefs.

With the massive purchases in recent weeks, it's clear that Strategy is diligently deleveraging the converts off the balance sheet (relatively), which means the convert gamma will have minimal—and eventually no impact on pref credit spreads.

Having no convertible bonds senior to the prefs should not only improve absolute credit spreads but should diminish credit spread volatility, as the volatility of the size of the assumed senior liabilities above the prefs goes away entirely. This should make prefs like STRC even less volatile, reinforcing the strength and efficiency of the system further.

So to answer the question: yes, this mix of STRC and MSTR issuance is accretive in BTC Yield terms, but I think the bigger story here is the deleveraging of the balance sheet (relatively) of convertible bonds, and it's shifting the focus to pref-style "amplification"—exactly as the MSTR team has stated.

The USD reserve is another recent shift worth noting. It looks to have further dampened credit spread volatility in the prefs by quieting market concerns around dividend coverage and immediate capital raising needs.

Congrats to the Strategy team on having notional prefs surpass converts in just one year.

Wildly impressive.

[Adam @AdameMedia]

Many who should know better are suspiciously missing the many, many obvious clues that this was done purely for Israel and will benefit almost exclusively Israel.

[Trending Bitcoin @TrendingBitcoin]

🇺🇸 Rumors that a massive partnership is brewing between some of the largest banks and Strategy 👀

2026 is going to be wild for $MSTR