Dave | The Northern Byte

Pixels, Politics, Family and Powering through. 🎮💻🐦‍⬛ Just a Yorkshire bloke with a byte-sized take on a big world. #RestoreBritain '25 Member.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

The next time #ReformUK Accuse #RestoreBritain of Splitting the Vote, show them this. Their rhetoric and actions are why we have a Labour government today.

Restore are not splitting, we are taking the disaffected and the disillusioned.

#UKPolitics #Infographics

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

#RestoreBritain has the blueprint, now it has the building blocks.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@Shezmike1 @reformparty_uk @Darren40819109 Cleans up the timeline nicely though. Mines been much improved as snowflakes self selectively remove themselves from my timeline 😁

[The Pre Raphaelite @ThePreRaphf]

🇬🇧 RESTORE BRITAIN 🇬🇧

🇬🇧 LET’S GET OUR COUNTRY BACK! 🇬🇧

#RestoreBritain 🇬🇧
#Makerfield 🗳️

Let’s all keep spreading the message:

#VoteRebeccaShepherd 🇬🇧

IT’S TIME TO

@RestoreBritain 🇬🇧

[Cllr Owain Clatworthy @OwainClatworthy]

To all the people I’ve “offended” today.

Good.

If standing up for secure borders, protecting British culture, and putting local residents first offends you, then I DON’T CARE.

We’re not here to win popularity contests.

We are here to Restore Britain.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@RedWallPleb @Folkofthenation 50% of over 55s who answered the phone*

*Not technically correct but I CBA to look up the actual numbers.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@BBCNewsPR @bbcquestiontime Bollocks.

It's been clear it's a 3 horse race in Makerfield for weeks.. so don't give us this rubbish.

Even the latest Survation poll has support collapsing for the same candidates you included on the panel today.

Absolute shambles.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@swaddicor @RB_Folkestone 🤣 it's really got under your skin hasn't it 🤣🤣🤣

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

Depends which data point you look at.

Local elections saw them vote 60% for reform give or take.
2024 GE had them vote in Labour with 40% of the vote (5k margin) - might need to double check thar number.

It's been labour since forever. So on a normal day, it's in the bag, but this aint a normal day.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@swaddicor Of course it does. The Survation poll is the closest thing we've got to actual data points that aren't coloured by canvassing data or hearsay. So of course the bookies are going to gravitate towards it.

Especially after that BBCQT performance 😬

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

Does anyone seriously believe this?

[Survation. @Survation]

Makerfield By-Election Update:
https://t.co/1qzdOOW1SO

Survation conducted a new poll of the Makerfield constituency. Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 518 adults in the constituency between 26th May and 1st June 2026. A combination of landline and mobile data were used.

Methodology Statement
Population Sampled: All residents aged 18+ living in the Makerfield parliamentary constituency.

Total Sample Size: 518

Data Collection Method: Telephone interview. A combination of landline and mobile data were used.

Fieldwork Dates: 26th May – 1st June 2026

Data Weighting: Data were weighted to the profile of all adults in Makerfield constituency aged 18+. Data were weighted by age, sex, ward and 2024 General Election vote.

Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics data and the results of the 2024 UK General Election.

Margin of Error: Because only a sample of the full population was interviewed, all results are subject to a margin of error. For example, in a question where 50% gave a particular answer, with a sample of 518 it is 95% certain that the “true” value would fall within 4.8 percentage points of the sample result.

Headline by-election voting intention - Table V2 (likelihood-weighted, undecided/refused removed, no squeeze):

Candidate / Party / Vote share

Andy Burnham - Labour 49%
Robert Kenyon - Reform UK 39%
Rebecca Shepherd - Restore Britain 8%
Sarah Wakefield - Green Party 2%
Jake Austin - Liberal Democrat 1%
Michael Winstanley - Conservative 1%
Another party <1%

Base: likely voters, factored by likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused voters removed

Data tables are available here: https://t.co/mAcxDeCGIQ

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@swaddicor Honestly, kicking myself for not throwing a few quid on when it was 100/1 😁

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@BLTRobinsonRUK @RobKenyonReform Did we watch the same program? 😬

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

Oh god sake.

Thanks @survation. Now we are going to have a week of Reform whining about Restore splitting the vote again.

🤣🤣

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@adrol1986 Grog is surprisingly balanced with it's predictions too... Annoyingly difficult to influence 🤣

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@swaddicor 14/1 at their worst.
9/1 at their best.

30/1 is, I don't even know where you got there from.

Nobody is arguing Restore are underdogs either. If you check my post history you'll see I've been consistent about this.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@Stu___X @RupertLowe10 Hang on, let's do some basic maths.

If labour has 49 and Reform has 39, if all restore voters move to reform, does that change the outcome of the election based on this poll?

Answer: no it does not.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@Coops19891 @Survation Maybe* won 😁

I look forward to it.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@anglohedge @Sargon_of_Akkad Oh that's a good catch! Biased because of the methodology I suspect (primarily phone based)

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@Coops19891 @Survation Oh I can, based on personal experience, known facts and anecdotal evidence.

Doesn't make me right. Certainly not always. That would be arrogant 😬

Also aware I'm in a bubble, not entirely of my own making. The weak ones keep blocking me when they can't argue against facts 😞

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@anglohedge @Sargon_of_Akkad Now now, it was a combination of landline and mobile data.

Mildly improves the outcome. But I'm still skeptical.

[Dave | The Northern Byte @TheNorthernByte]

@Xtoryvoter1 @NadineDorries @BBC Hey, look Rebecca owns the horses. She can bring her own damn horse.

😁