The Patient Investor

The Patient Investor.
Founder of - The Stock Research Platform for Independent Thinker.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

The part that should give you pause:

Q3 guidance has MRs at $29,000. They just earned $52,027. Down 44%.

That 5x P/E is trailing. Forward is 12.4x - the market expects earnings to halve.

The score is betting the balance sheet outlasts the cycle. Last time it was six months early.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

Six months ago our model flagged $STNG at $79.81.

Today it's $81.42. Up 2%, with a 15% drawdown in between.

It just flagged it again - same price, 97.4 score. So we went back and checked what actually changed.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

Nothing in the price. Everything underneath it.

March → today:
Gross debt $855M → $655M
Fleet 91 ships → 67
Last quarter's net income $128M → $387M
LR2 day rates $34,364 → $77,749
They sold 19 vessels for ~$1.1B and now hold $1.3B net cash - $26/share on an $81 stock. Cash breakeven under $11,000/day.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

@InvestingCanons Actually, it’s not that economists are necessarily wrong.
It’s that what they’re describing can take months, sometimes years, to fully play out.
And by then, the market may have already repriced the entire story.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

Everyone's buying what's at highs. Here's what our model likes that isn't.

Five mega caps in the top 10 by Q-Score, all trading well below their 52-week highs:

$MU — $956, down 24% from its high. Q-Score 88.2. Revenue $41.5B, up 346% YoY, at an 84.9% gross margin. Trades at 6.6x forward earnings.

$PLTR — $169, down 18%. Q-Score 85.1. US commercial revenue +149%, $2.1B of US commercial TCV booked in one quarter. Rule of 40 score: 155.

$ASML — $1,682, down 16%. Q-Score 86.9. Raised FY26 guidance and is adding 30% more EUV capacity for 2027 because demand won't wait.

$LLY — $1,160, down 10%. Q-Score 85.7. Mounjaro up 91%, Zepbound up 46%, full-year guidance raised to $85–87B.

$PM — $188, down 10%. Q-Score 93.4. Smoke-free products are 42% of revenue at a 70% gross margin.

Five companies compounding at these rates, and all five are cheaper than they were three months ago.

Nobody built wealth buying the thing everyone already owns at the price everyone already paid.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

Besides enterprise customers, OpenAI has ~900M weekly users and ~50M consumer subscribers. 850 million people use it and pay nothing.

Ads launched in February. Last week OpenAI said they hit a $1B annualized run rate — 200 days in.

$1B across 850M free users is about $1.20 per user per year.

Meta earns $16.86 per person per quarter. Roughly $67 a year.

So the Facebook playbook is running. It's at 1.8% of Facebook.

The multi-bagger potential is still there. But probably really attractive after a 40–50% drop from the IPO price.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic’s enterprise revenue comes from just 1% of customers

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

Dell booked $60.9B of AI server orders last quarter.

It shipped $16.4B of them.

That is a book-to-bill of 3.7. The backlog closed at a record $95B — 5.8 quarters of shipping at the current rate, about 17 months already sold and not yet built.

The annual revenue guide moved $167B → $192B. That $25B raise, added in a single quarter, is larger than Dell's entire infrastructure segment produced a year ago.

$DELL

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

38,000 is the headline. The number under it is the tell slowest month since January, against a 48,000 consensus.
The 10-year touched 4.81% on the same day — highest since 2023.
Cooling labour and a rising long end at once is not a Fed story, it is a term-premium story. Friday's print decides which one the market has actually been trading.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

MongoDB beat and raised and lost 13.6%. Credo grew 115% and lost 20%. Dell grew 58% and gained 15.8%.

The separator was not the quarter. It was the size of the guidance move — Dell put $25B on the annual top line, the other two raised in increments.

The market has moved on from the beat. It is pricing the second derivative.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

👉 STOCKS TO WATCH

29. $AVGO: the next AI-infrastructure print — custom accelerators, networking, VMware execution.

30. $SNOW: product-revenue growth and AI consumption trends.

31. $LULU: North American demand and margins.

32. $SPY/$QQQ: Friday's August jobs report, the week's biggest macro catalyst.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

Dell raised its annual revenue forecast to $192B from $167B and closed up 15.8%.

Credo grew revenue 115% and fell about 20%.

Private payrolls added 38,000 jobs — the slowest month since January.

Everything that mattered in the market today:

👉 COMPANIES

1. $DELL: FY27 revenue guidance $192B, up from $167B. Adjusted EPS guide $25.50, up from $17.90. Closed at $492.20.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

👉 MARKET THEMES

23. $SPY/$QQQ/$DIA: S&P 500 +0.46% to 7,667. Nasdaq +0.45% to 26,218. Dow +0.56% to 53,062. Three-day slide over.

24. $IWM: small caps outperformed, Russell 2000 up about 0.8% as breadth improved.

25. $PLTR: about −6% in a broad software valuation reset.

26. $RDDT +8%, $ALNY +7% — the session's strongest large-cap movers.

27. ADP: private payrolls +38,000 against 48,000 expected. July factory orders +0.9%, led by a 12.7% jump in civilian aircraft.

28. $TLT: the 10-year touched 4.81%, its highest since 2023. Brent settled near $95 on renewed US–Iran strikes.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

@iancassel That’s often what separates a life-changing opportunity from a scam

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

@MoneyQuotesX But disrespect can cost you everything.

[The Patient Investor @ThePatientQuant]

@QCompounding Simple is the best!