R.

Sharing my stock market research. Educational only.

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

THE CONVICTION
Kiri Industries.

CMP: ₹391 | Market cap: ₹2,572 Cr

49% below its 52-week high.
Received ₹6,200 Cr in cash — 2.4x its market cap.
Promoter just put ₹93 Cr of his own money in.

3 numbers that don't add up.

Here's what I found after
digging into this company. 🧵👇(1/12)

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

THE FINAL FRAME

Kiri Industries at ₹395 is a bet
on one question:

Can this team commission 500,000 TPA
of copper smelting by April 2027?

If YES:
→ Revenue ramps from ₹800 Cr → ₹20,000+ Cr
→ Byproduct model proven at Birla Copper
→ P/B at 0.37x re-rates significantly
→ FIIs come back

If NO:
→ ₹9,000 Cr debt with no revenue
→ Cash bleeds through interest
→ Significant further downside

📍 April 2027 — Copper commissioning
📍 Late 2028 — Fertilizer commissioning
📍 Binding supply agreements — THE trigger
📍 FII shareholding reversal — validation

CMP: ₹391 | P/B: 0.37x

This was a 3-part case study.
Not a tip. Not advice.

All data: BSE/NSE filings, company website,
Hindalco FY26 annual report, PIB.
Not SEBI registered. DYOR.(7/7)

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

This week I covered Kiri Industries:

First Thread: The conviction case at ₹391
Previous Thread: How the copper-fertilizer
model actually makes money

Today: The risks. No sugarcoating.

If you're going to study this stock,
you need to see both sides.

Let's go. 🧵👇(1/7)

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

THE CUSHION (What works in favour):

→ PLI incentive: 4-6% on incremental sales
→ Govt incentives: 30-35% of total capex
over 10 years (~₹4,000 Cr if true)
→ Fertilizer subsidy: guaranteed DAP offtake
→ No equity dilution planned
→ Promoter stake increased to 41.71%
→ Kiri makes H₂SO₄ since 2007 (19 years)
→ CEO experience: Birla Copper + IFFCO
+ Paradeep Phosphates
→ Construction 25-30% complete

But every incentive is performance-linked.
No production = no incentives.

Everything comes back to one date. 👇(6/7)

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

Think of it like a movie theatre:
Tickets (Copper) create most of the revenue and bring people in.

But the real profit often comes from popcorn, drinks & snacks (Sulfuric acid + downstream chemicals/fertilizer) — smaller revenue, but much higher margins.

This is common in many integrated commodity and processing businesses.

Can you think of other companies or sectors where the main product drives most of the revenue, but byproducts or downstream segments drive most of the profit?

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

One key thing to keep in mind while analyzing kiri Industries’ future results:
Don’t confuse top line with bottom line.

Top line shows the size of the business — copper will likely dominate revenue as the high-value product.

Bottom line shows how much actual profit the company keeps.

In Kiri’s integrated model (copper smelting + sulfuric acid → fertilizer), these two can come from very different parts.

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

For those just joining:

→ Previous: Why I'm studying Kiri at ₹395 (pinned)

→ Today: How copper smelters still profit at $0 TC/RC (5 real revenue streams + Hindalco numbers)

→ Next: The risks — debt, execution, what could go wrong (no sugarcoating).

I cover interesting turnaround opportunities in their own series of threads.

What stands out to you in kiri industries so far?

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

Previously, I posted about Kiri Industries
and why I'm studying it at ₹391.

The #1 question I got:

"How will a copper smelter make money
when treatment charges globally are
at ZERO?"

Fair question. Let me answer it
with real numbers. 🧵👇(1/8)

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

So the real picture:

Kiri's project isn't "just a smelter."

It's an integrated chemical complex where:
→ Copper = primary revenue
→ Sulfuric acid = feeds fertilizer plant
→ DAP = guaranteed govt offtake
→ Gold/silver = precious metal bonus
→ Copper tubes = PLI incentive

The model is proven at Birla Copper.
Kiri hired the people who ran it.
The chemistry? They've done it last 19 years.

Next thread, I'll cover the risks honestly.
The debt math. The supply chain question.
What could go wrong.

Because the risks are real too.

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

And India's fertilizer crisis makes
the downstream even more valuable:

→ India imported 6.4M tonnes DAP (FY26)
→ Cost: $4.9 billion
→ 67% of DAP demand = imports
→ India relies heavily on imported raw sulfur.
→ Govt fertilizer subsidy: ₹2.11 lakh Cr/yr
→ DAP price: ₹1,350/bag (govt absorbs rest)

Geopolitical risk: Strait of Hormuz,
China export restrictions on phosphate.

A plant that produces sulfuric acid
as a BYPRODUCT of copper smelting and
converts it into DAP inside India?

Import substitution for copper.
Import substitution for raw sulfuric.
Import substitution for DAP.

Three import bills reduced by one
integrated operation. 👇(7/8)

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

What most people miss about Kiri:

1. They already make sulfuric acid —
since 2007. 500 TPD. 19 years.

2. CEO of Indo Asia Copper Ltd ran copper at Birla Copper, fertilizer at IFFCO, phosphoric
acid at Paradeep Phosphates.

3. Construction is 25-30% complete.

Upcoming threads on:

***How the money actually works.
***The risks — no sugarcoating.

Follow for data-driven research.

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

THE CONVICTION
Kiri Industries.

CMP: ₹391 | Market cap: ₹2,572 Cr

49% below its 52-week high.
Received ₹6,200 Cr in cash — 2.4x its market cap.
Promoter just put ₹93 Cr of his own money in.

3 numbers that don't add up.

Here's what I found after
digging into this company. 🧵👇(1/12)

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

What I'm tracking:

📍 April 2027 — Copper commissioning
📍 Late 2028 — Fertilizer commissioning
📍 Binding supply agreements — THE trigger
📍 FII shareholding reversal

Next week, I'll break down HOW
this model makes money — with real
FY26 numbers from a company already
doing it successfully in India.

This is not a tip. This is a case study.
Not SEBI registered. All public data.
Not advice. DYOR. (12/12)

[R. @TheQuietEdge_01]

The core thesis:

A company that already makes sulfuric
acid (since 2007), hired veterans from
Birla Copper and IFFCO, has ₹6,200 Cr
cash, construction 25-30% complete,
and a promoter who put ₹93 Cr in.

Building a 500,000 TPA copper smelter
to fill India's structural deficit.

April 2027 is the date that matters.

CMP: ₹392 | P/B: 0.37x 👇(11/12)