Yeah, it is an interesting and close one. My model says Pitt is actually the bigger at-large threat right now, but more importantly, they take the bigger jump with a win than VT does. Your point about the remaining schedules could definitely be part of that.
A Pitt win takes them from 8.7% → 16.0% at-large, while VT only goes from 6.7% → 9.3%.
Fun one: the model says “Washington being bad” isn’t universally good for Big Ten contenders.
If UW beats USC:
Iowa +2.3 CFP pts
Indiana prefers UW slightly
If USC wins:
Ohio State +1.0 pts vs. the UW outcome
Oregon +0.4
For Iowa, a UW win is actually its most helpful result of the day (see image)
@TheStampedeUT@CoachMackBrown@BobBallouSports Focus during the bye week?On the field, probably rest 😂. On the scoreboard though, Texas still has a bunch to watch this weekend. The Rooting Guide has these three games as the biggest outside results affecting the Horns’ CFP path.
🏈 The Week 5 Rooting Guide is live!
Pick any FBS team and see who you should root for in every game this week — plus how each result could impact your team’s CFP chances.
New week. New rooting interests 👇
https://t.co/1p8NRNlBID
@Grantwills@BenCriddleShow Yeah, this was fascinating to me too. A strong Utah helps BYU’s résumé, but we also play Iowa State, so their strength helps too. Utah is the bigger Big 12 threat, though, so a Utah loss would have helped BYU’s path to the title game—and CFP—more. Moot point now though 😂
Pretty cool to see The Rooting Guide being used in the wild already 👀
@casey_lundquist used the model to help inform which results would help BYU most during the bye week.
Check out his full article 👇
https://t.co/wyzCAUwJPL
@NDFootball Big game! A win only increases ND's CFP odds by 1%, but a loss would decrease them by 16%!
There are multiple other games this weekend with big Notre Dame CFP implications though!
@CenterStMedia@BYUfootball Utah!! I agree Notre Dame is more important for this year's CFP chances, but long term I want to keep the upper hand on Utah (particularly important for recruiting!)