Soumitra Roy

Be good. Do good. Seek happiness.

[Tom Cruise @TomCruise]

Over 30 years ago, I began the journey of producing my first film, Mission: Impossible. Since then, these eight films have taken me on the adventure of a lifetime.

1/20

[Sridhar Vembu @svembu]

What is ailing the software job market is not AI taking away jobs (not yet anyway).

Here is my thesis, as a participant and observer of software for 30 years. Over those 30 years:

1. Massive over-capacity steadily developed in enterprise software due to a flood of VC, PE and IPO money.

2. Software vendors applied liberal doses of marketing spending to spread Fear (of missing out) and Uncertainty ("tech is changing, you need us") and Doubt ("are you confused? trust us") among corporate customers and the result was ever growing IT spending. Enterprise IT budgets kept rising because which CIO or Board would want to be seen as lagging? Major corporations in the West have layers and layers of duplicated IT systems, lots of money spent to acquire them and even more money spent to get the disparate systems to work together. The more inefficient IT systems ended up becoming permanent resource drains, requiring vast human resources to simply keep them running.

3. Large enterprises in the West found those needed human resources in India - transferring those inefficiencies to IT services firms in India, often multiplied by 3 or even 4! That "multiplied inefficiency" happened because IT budgets were kept fixed in dollar terms and more people got hired in India to "get more done".

Result? A large number of IT jobs in India came to depend on those original inefficiencies and the multiplied inefficiencies.

4. Note how Indian banks and financial institutions are more IT savvy, while spending far less, than established financial majors in the US - Indian firms did not have the budgets to splurge! Necessity made them highly efficient and today India's financial institutions are able to fend off foreign competition easily.

5. One of the deep facts about software is that often a 2 person team can solidly outperform a 20 person team and a 10 person team can do the work of a 200 person team. This is not just due to talent disparity - even when the large teams have equivalent talented people, they can easily end up being wasted on unproductive projects.

6. When people are billed by the hour or by the staff month (input metrics), as it happens often in IT services, there is zero incentive to remove those inefficiencies, to empower the 2 person team as opposed to hiring 20.

It is those multiplied inefficiencies in IT, built up over decades, that is facing a reckoning now.

Now enter AI. A large amount of code is boilerplate code in many projects and AI can eat such code for breakfast. Depending on the nature of a project AI can offer 10-20% productivity gains. Significant but not the 10x or 100x leap yet to destroy jobs on a vast scale.

But those AI gains of today pale in comparison to the "multiplied inefficiencies" built up over decades.

This reckoning nearly happened in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC 2008-9). It got postponed because the central banks flooded the world with money and a part of that money flooded into enterprise IT.

The pandemic unleashed another flood of money into enterprise IT.

Those floods are now history and we have a serious drought.

That is why I am pessimistic about the software job market, even before accounting for AI.

[UEFA EURO @UEFAEURO]

2024 CHAMPIONS: Spain 🇪🇸

#EURO2024

[Indian Football @IndianFootball]

Thank you for everything, #SunilChhetri! 🙌🇮🇳

You’ll be missed 💙

#INDKUW #ThankYouSC11 #FIFAWorldCup 🏆 #BlueTigers 🐯 #IndianFootball ⚽️

[Arnold Schwarzenegger @Schwarzenegger]

I heard that the way you go viral on this site is by making a big list of things you have to do. Let me try.

-You should mostly eat food you know is healthy, there is no magic food.

-You should also occasionally let yourself eat delicious food you know isn’t healthy. Otherwise what’s the point?

-You should be training with some kind of resistance (your bodyweight works), no matter your age

-You should do something to get your heart going and get a schvitz a few times a week

-You should know there isn’t a magic pill, a hack, or a diet and most of that crap people put in their lists is just mean to confuse you so you pay them to figure it out for you with whatever they are selling

-You should also know my daily newsletter is free, is allergic to bullshit, and includes weekly workouts, the latest health and fitness news, and motivation from me.

-Don’t worry, if you paid one of those people to tell you jumping in cold water or taking 29 pills every morning will get you fit, I’ll still be here in three months when you decide it’s time to try something that works. The only trick I know is that you have to work, it hasn’t changed in 76 years and it won’t change.

https://t.co/RWyII4MOW2

[FRIENDS @FriendsTV]

We are devastated to learn of Matthew Perry’s passing. He was a true gift to us all. Our heart goes out to his family, loved ones, and all of his fans.

[Chicago Marathon @ChiMarathon]

COURSE RECORD: In her U.S. marathon debut, Sifan Hassan takes the @BankofAmerica #ChicagoMarathon course record in an unofficial time of 2:13:38! Amazing performance Sifan!

[Chicago Marathon @ChiMarathon]

WORLD RECORD: We have a new man in town. Kelvin Kiptum just broke Eliud Kipchoge's World Record with an unofficial time of 2:00:35! UNBELIEVABLE!

[SAI Media @Media_SAI]

Powerhouse Parul grabs a #GloriousGold🥇in Women's 5000m 🥳

Second time around, she proves that charm and determination pay off, securing her remarkable second medal at #AsianGames2022.

Clocking 15:14.75, Parul's performance is absolutely 🔥!

Heartiest congratulations champ!
Our hearts are full🤗

#Cheer4India
#HallaBol
#JeetegaBharat
#BharatAtAG22

[World Athletics @WorldAthletics]

History-maker 👑

🇰🇪's @EliudKipchoge becomes the first man in history to win the @berlinmarathon for the 5th time 🙌

2:02:42 for the win 😎

[BMW BERLIN-MARATHON @berlinmarathonE]

#berlinmarathon Assefa Tigst (ETH) smashes the world record with 2:11:52 (unoffical time)

[Tim Cook @tim_cook]

At Apple, we believe that climate change is one of the world’s most urgent priorities and we are deeply committed to doing our part. Today we had a special guest—a real force of nature—stop by to check on our progress.

[ISRO @isro]

Chandrayaan-3 Mission:
'India🇮🇳,
I reached my destination
and you too!'
: Chandrayaan-3

Chandrayaan-3 has successfully
soft-landed on the moon 🌖!.

Congratulations, India🇮🇳!

#Chandrayaan_3
#Ch3

[ISRO @isro]

LVM3 M4/Chandrayaan-3 Mission:
LVM3 M4 vehicle🚀 successfully launched Chandrayaan-3🛰️ into orbit.

[Everest Today @EverestToday]

JUST IN: Renowned Nepali mountaineer Kami Rita Sherpa has successfully scaled Mt #Everest (8848.86 m) for a record 28th time. CONGRATULATIONS! #Everest2023

Photo Courtesy: Seven Summit Treks.

[Laureus @LaureusSport]

History maker! Lionel Messi is the first ever athlete to win the Laureus World Sportsman of the Year and Laureus World Team of the Year Awards in the same year.

#Laureus23

[TCS London Marathon @LondonMarathon]

IT'S UNBELIEVABLE! 🤯

Sifan Hassan wins the 2023 TCS London Marathon.

#LondonMarathon #WeRunTogether

[TCS London Marathon @LondonMarathon]

NEW COURSE RECORD! 🤯

What a moment. Kelvin Kiptum wins the 2023 TCS London Marathon and it's the second quickest time in history!

#LondonMarathon #WeRunTogether

[Boston Athletic Association @BAA]

Coming down Boylston, it's @HellenObiri, in just her second marathon ever. The only woman in history to win worlds titles in indoor and outdoor track and cross country looks like she's about to add #BostonMarathon champion to her resume.