TheSemiAnalyst

L/S Equity analyst based in London. Not investment advice.

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

This week I dive deep into $NVDA's Q2 earnings! Unpacking Blackwell delays, AI ROI, and the DGX vs MGX debate. The last section includes some scenario analysis around CY25 numbers & what needs to happen for the stock to work.
https://t.co/61zSmgBhLC

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

$ARM at $365 starts to be interesting as a short
Stocks up 200%+ YTD

CPU TAM gets to $200B with 15% share they would do $30B chip revenue on top of the $10B licensing

Chip biz is at most 50% GM

Could get you to $13 EPS by fy30

Wouldn't put more than 15x P/E on that

$200 TP

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

$VIAV at $45 looks good as we move to CPO and test intensity increases... one for the bottleneck investors

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

yo at what point are we calling $NVDA a value stock

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

Think it's time I become an electrician

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

$DELL more expensive than $NVDA thank you very much

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

@BenBajarin 20 bucks mate

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

@MajorOcelot45 dont think it means they're gonna buy 1m rubin but rather they have capacity for it

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

@EricJhonsa $KLIC CY26 EPS revisions up 75% post Q

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

$ANET valuation at 40x FY27 was looking kind of full + aggressive numbers not totally pricing in increased competition from $NVDA $CSCO $CLS
gotta check again the r^2 with AI infra capex

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

$AMD growing revs 30%+ but gross margins not moving? They just beat revs by 4.3% but GM intact despite data center being the higher margin biz ex xilinx

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

good ol days

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

Time to buy the dip….. $NVDA under $105, $QCOM under $170, AMAT under $200, $CDNS under $250, $LRCX at $850 and $DELL under $110

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

Think investors underestimated how supply constrained HDD market is.. when hyperscalers start buying solutions that are 7x more expensive per unit you know there's a problem.. $WDC announced this morning price hikes.. massive eSSD orders being put down by hyperscalers.. storage blowing up rn

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

"Data centers are now being built where power is available, rather than bringing power to existing data center locations. This is leading to data centers being built farther apart" VP of infrastructure at GOOG $CIEN

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

we getting there $TXN bear case

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

Laying out the Bull case for $TXN:

Industrials, Auto = full upcycle next year, company is able to grow equivalent of 2021 in FY25 & FY26 (25% CAGR).. That's $22B in revenues with $2B capex that's best case $10 FCF per share.. on a peak 25x EV/FCF that's a $240 stock (only ~20% upside from here).

Bear case:

Auto ex-China downturn continues, industrials recovery pushed out, single digit growth in FY25 with 15% growth in FY26 = $19B in revenues with $2B capex worst case $7.8FCF per share... on a trough 15x EV/FCF that's a $115 stock with 45%+ downside

Asymmetry 2 to 1 on the downside

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

Surely the new software restrictions don't affect EDA

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

China’s anti-dumping probe on analog chips could hit $TXN the hardest. During Covid, the market shifted from a global single-sourced to local multi-sourced and that really hurt $TXN, lost lots of share. To get that back, in 2023, they cut prices hard, won back volume but overall lost revenue share. 10-15% of their sales is affected by this

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

Think investors underestimated how supply constrained HDD market is.. when hyperscalers start buying solutions that are 7x more expensive per unit you know there's a problem.. $WDC announced this morning price hikes.. massive eSSD orders being put down by hyperscalers.. storage blowing up rn

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

From $ORCL latest 10Q:

Remaining performance obligations were $455.3 billion as of August 31, 2025, of which we expect to recognize approximately 10% as revenues over the next twelve months, 25% over the subsequent month 13 to month 36, 34% over the subsequent month 37 to month 60 and the remainder thereafter.

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

@rwang07 $SNPS down -10% AH

[TheSemiAnalyst @TheSemiAnalyst]

wow $ORCL