Ellsworth's Scientific Concern

managing editor by trade, here i curate free and open research daily-ish...just whatever i think is interesting.

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@lulumeservey There’s certainly no replacement for fooling vapid morons with orchestrated lines of questioning

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@SuiNetwork the revolution will be gamified https://t.co/AFrtEv1fzy

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

https://t.co/CQw3dugdDu

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

https://t.co/CQw3dugdDu

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@Delicious_Tacos He’s talking about portillos yall. $ptlo

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@nikitabier @mattshumer_ lol this is a commercial, not an article

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@PikesPeakTrades you're a fraud dude, good trader or not.

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

we're getting very defensive stacey...just off the top of my head here...where's the one that went something like...wow! three weeks of spx gains wiped out in one day!!! and we're just getting started to the downside! we've got your roadmap for the next year behind the paywall at advantage! and it included a picture of your now wildly incorrect wave counts...and then the market ripped your face off for two months... did that tweet get lost in the move?

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@PikesPeakTrades 'i never delete tweets'. buyer beware, y'all...this guy is a at best a verified liar.

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@ericweinstein let's assume, hypothetically, that this isn't all for attention...what is stopping you from posting it here?

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@TradesalotSir @randyrae_n1 @AlexsOptions literally the mentality here is 'don't glorify a pedophile' and there are folks grappling with that? if you quoted mao or stalin you would be a loser in those cases also

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@TradesalotSir @randyrae_n1 @AlexsOptions right on. damn i didn't realize stalin and mao had bangers/high level thoughts worth entertaining in 2026... any readings you'd recommend? where should i start with stalin? mao...earlier or later stuff?

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

and even if he wasn't...like there aren't a thousand other people who have said the exact same thing or 'knew what there were doing in the markets' lmfao...why even share a video of this guy in the first place. it's completely detached from reality beta stuff.

absolutely nobody: [...]

alex: this brilliant pedophile is almost there...but what he doesn't understand is that god sent a trading strategy down to earth and now i sell it in a premium discord and--

some other idiot online: whatever you think of the pedophile, you gotta admit, the pedophile had money, and that's good enough for me.

wtf are we doing here😂

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@Timcast tick tock traitor. you have no idea what conservatism is.

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@YIMBYLAND by cost-efficiency? yes.

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@QStacheIII @CityScapesNC you sure?

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@ErWhatjohn @CityScapesNC you sure? last tuesday morning, 703 am

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

@Mayhem4Markets Phil saw his shadow y'all...manage accordingly.😅https://t.co/Mu7jKJVi1U

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

Groundhog Day & the S&P 500

Punxsutawney Phil's prediction on Feb 2 has been tracked since the late 1800s, but reliable S&P 500 daily data aligns best from ~1950 onward (with some studies extending to 1928).

Key finding from research (Shanaev, Shuraeva & Fedorova, 2021, Finance Research Letters):

When Phil predicts early spring (no shadow, ~18 cases in 1928–2021): Buy-and-hold abnormal returns around the event are significantly positive.

When Phil predicts long winter (sees shadow, majority of cases): Returns are lower by ~2.78% relative to early spring forecasts.

The divergence appears in abnormal returns (adjusted for expected performance), starting ~10 trading days before Groundhog Day and persisting for weeks after, with early spring linked to stronger upward drift.

A separate analysis (Capitalogix, post-1944 data):

No shadow years (13 cases): Median S&P 500 return from Feb 2 to first day of spring ≈ +3.01%, positive in >75% of cases.

Shadow years (59 cases): Median return ≈ +0.54%, closer to or below seasonal norms.

This "Groundhog Day anomaly" is likely attributed to behavioral factors eg rarer early-spring predictions may trigger temporary investor optimism, rather than any predictive power from the hog. Results hold after controlling for other calendar effects (January, turn-of-month, etc) in robust subsamples.

https://t.co/8PZjRZTI8N

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

Groundhog Day & the S&P 500

Punxsutawney Phil's prediction on Feb 2 has been tracked since the late 1800s, but reliable S&P 500 daily data aligns best from ~1950 onward (with some studies extending to 1928).

Key finding from research (Shanaev, Shuraeva & Fedorova, 2021, Finance Research Letters):

When Phil predicts early spring (no shadow, ~18 cases in 1928–2021): Buy-and-hold abnormal returns around the event are significantly positive.

When Phil predicts long winter (sees shadow, majority of cases): Returns are lower by ~2.78% relative to early spring forecasts.

The divergence appears in abnormal returns (adjusted for expected performance), starting ~10 trading days before Groundhog Day and persisting for weeks after, with early spring linked to stronger upward drift.

A separate analysis (Capitalogix, post-1944 data):

No shadow years (13 cases): Median S&P 500 return from Feb 2 to first day of spring ≈ +3.01%, positive in >75% of cases.

Shadow years (59 cases): Median return ≈ +0.54%, closer to or below seasonal norms.

This "Groundhog Day anomaly" is likely attributed to behavioral factors eg rarer early-spring predictions may trigger temporary investor optimism, rather than any predictive power from the hog. Results hold after controlling for other calendar effects (January, turn-of-month, etc) in robust subsamples.

https://t.co/8PZjRZTI8N

[Ellsworth's Scientific Concern @TheSignalOA]

i already said i read it dude, it's a freshman level evidentiary vacuum. saying it's 'about quant analysis of financial markets' is like calling Ancient Aliens 'a documentary'. the strat is cool, it's a very clean and simple system that i can appreciate in and of itself...but the evangelical midwittery that you, specifically, bring to it, is fucking absurd. There’s a whole universe of quant finance and academic research that has already stress-tested these ideas ad nauseum...where's all/any of the research backing up your claims? submit something strat-related to a peer review econ outlet if you're serious about writing about it. or post an research paper on a preprint server. a bunch of pedo-cucking dipshits stroking your ego on a larpy blog post isn't going to make you a better writer or a better trader.