Stocker-Man

23 | Finance student | Long-term growth investor | STOCKER20 - 20% off first sub👇| NFA 🕷️

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

My current long-term holding allocation with their current share price as of today:

$TSLA 24% (397$)
$SOFI 15% (18$)
$AMD 15% (216$)
$HIMS 10% (15$)
$OSCR 9% (12$)
$ZETA 7% (15$)
$PLTR 6% (130$)
$NBIS 5% (100$)
$LMND 5% (50$)
$PATH 4% (10$)

I’m not selling a single share of any of these before 2031 unless my long-term thesis changes.

I’m aiming for 4–10x by 2031 across this basket, with a couple names having real 10x+ upside.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

I don’t like giving out random price targets.

Anyone can say this stock is going to $100 or this is a 10x.

That doesn’t mean anything unless there’s actual math behind it.

That’s why when I talk about price targets, I try to connect them to revenue, earnings, margins, market cap, share count, and management guidance.

For example, with $SOFI, I’ve said the first real level for me is around $40 because it can be backed by the math if they keep executing on earnings growth and the market gives them a reasonable multiple.

Same thing with $HIMS.

I’ve talked about the possibility of $100+ long term, but only because management’s 2030 guidance gives us something to actually work with. If they hit their revenue targets, expand margins, and the market gives them a reasonable multiple, then the math can support a much higher stock price.

I’m not interested in throwing out price targets for engagement.

I want to understand what needs to happen for that price to actually make sense.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

I’ve been getting a lot of comments on my $SOFI posts saying:

“rates are going higher”
“war risk”
“macro is ugly”

And honestly… if you’re a long-term investor, does that really change the thesis?

Short term, yes, macro can move the stock.

But long term, what actually matters is whether the business keeps executing.

And $SOFI is doing exactly that.

Revenue +41% YoY.
Members +35% YoY.
Products +39% YoY.
Net income 167M.
Record loan originations.
Profitability expanding.

So while the market is focused on rate hike narratives and short-term fear, the actual business is gaining scale.

That’s the opportunity.

Long-term investors should want temporary pressure when the company itself is getting stronger. That’s how you load up on a business before the market fully prices in the execution.

$SOFI has already been growing through one of the toughest rate environments.

So if the stock is down because of macro noise, but the business is still compounding revenue, members, products and earnings…

I’m not panicking.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

No absolutely not. I don’t think $100 is the highest $SOFI can get long term.

I just don’t like throwing out crazy price targets without backing them up with numbers.

The first real level for me is around $40 because it’s actually defendable with the math.

Management is guiding for about $0.60 adjusted EPS in 2026. If $SOFI keeps compounding earnings and gets to roughly $1.30-$1.50 EPS by 2027/2028, then a 25-30x earnings multiple gets you somewhere around $$45 upside by 2027.

That’s why $40 is the first level I talk about.

Above $100 is possible if $SOFI becomes a much bigger financial platform over time, keeps growing members and products, expands margins, and the market starts valuing it more like a premium fintech/bank hybrid. (and in imo the market will eventually value it like a premium fintech)

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Would you believe me if I said this stock is down 43% over the last 6 months?

$SOFI revenue is up from $985M in 2021 to $3.61B in 2025.

Members keep climbing.
Revenue keeps scaling.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Carl but what about rotating profits out of my $AMD position that’s up 300% and rotating into $SOFI at 16$? My $AMD position has gotten a little too big. When $HIMS rallied to 70$, I didn’t sell a single share and it plummeted down to 15$. I am long in both $AMD and $HIMS and strongly believe they will outperform the market in next 5 years although it’s never a bad idea rotating some profits into another undervalued stock here.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

If you own $AMD, I think rotating some into $NVDA makes sense here.

$AMD is expected to grow earnings around 43% annually by 2028.
$NVDA is expected to grow around 45% annually by 2028.

$NVDA is trading around 15x 2028 earnings.
$AMD is trading around 30x 2028 earnings.

So either $AMD is overvalued…

Or $NVDA is undervalued.

Last week I posted that I trimmed some of my $AMD and rotated into $SOFI, $HIMS, and $IREN.

Still love $AMD long term, but valuation matters when the best AI company in the world is trading cheaper on future earnings.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@m7777121 “Small” probably undersells it. You get the point though!

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

$PATH

Revenue growing 17% YoY.
FCF growing 20% YoY.
$1.42B in cash.
0 debt.
Small buybacks underway.

But it’s not a data center, semiconductor, or space stock… so it’s not moving.

Incredible how it’s sitting under 12$.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@themarketuni Lol

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@JasonSc72779650

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@EO_Farmer Fair point on dilution, but the key is whether revenue, earnings, and FCF are growing faster than share count.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@CoygDy Depends what price you think $SOFI can become.

At $40 you’d need 25,000 shares.
At $50 you’d need 20,000 shares.
At $100 you’d need 10,000 shares.

Lol.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@JSTradeSJ Macro always matters short term, but execution wins long term.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@antibearthesis Absolutely!

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@Investinc_Intel $SOFI has been executing through every macro excuse people threw at it.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@GoBlueArizona Great counterpoint, very insightful. Appreciate the deep analysis!

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@DMawston $AMD estimates can absolutely keep moving higher if MI450/Helios ramps better than expected.

My point is just that $NVDA estimates can also keep moving higher, while already operating at a much larger scale with stronger margins.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@NinjaPT33 100%. That’s why I’m not saying $AMD is dead or uninvestable.

MI450/Helios could be huge, and I still think $AMD has room to win share. I just think the market is already pricing in a lot more of that upside vs $NVDA, where expectations still look too low relative to execution.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@Ray_1_5 My point wasn’t that those numbers alone decide the trade. It’s more that at today’s valuation, $NVDA gives me a better risk/reward while $AMD still needs a lot of execution to justify the multiple.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@E055Michel1842 Agreed, that’s basically the point I’m making. I still like $AMD long term, but when the growth gap is that small and the valuation gap is that wide, I’d rather have more exposure to $NVDA here.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

I’ve said this numerous times…

I love swing trading mega caps when the market gives obvious dislocations.

$UNH at $280.
$AMZN at $208.
$GOOGL last year around $160.

Now $META at $613 is starting to look obvious to me.