Stocker-Man

23 | Long-term investor + Swings | Public investing journal | Long $HIMS $SOFI + more | NFA 🕷️ | STOCKER20 - 20% off 👇

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

People ask what I actually own.

Here’s the bulk of my long-term portfolio:

$HIMS Avg $25.73
$SOFI Avg $12.79
$LMND Avg $52.75
$ZETA Avg $18.17
$NBIS Avg $129.48
$OSCR Avg $14.38
$DUOL Avg $114.21

I’m not touching these positions until 2030+ unless the long-term thesis changes.

If the thesis gets stronger, I’ll continue averaging up… exactly like I’ve been doing.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@StockChaser_ $ONDS 😅

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@optionscjp Imagine having so little going on in your life that your first priority is making fun of someone else’s stock position…

Don’t even let that bother you lol… If anything, it’s kind of a flex that 100 people woke up this morning and their first thought was you.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Despite the selloff, there are some encouraging developments from $NBIS earnings that I don’t think investors should overlook.

- Revenue: $981M (+571% YoY)
- AI Cloud revenue: $974M (+643% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $466M
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 47.5%
- GAAP operating income: +$50M
- 2027 revenue guidance: $12B–$13B

The most interesting development to me isn’t necessarily revenue growth… it’s financing.

Management indicated that customer prepayments covered more than 100% of the capital requirements associated with newly signed Q3 deals, compared with approximately 50%–60% in Q2.

The biggest concerns surrounding neoclouds is their dependence on external capital.

If customers are increasingly willing to fund infrastructure upfront, $NBIS may be able to grow with less reliance on expensive corporate financing.

Management also expects customer prepayments and financing backed by investment-grade customer contracts to cover 75%–85% of 2027 capex.

The financing model is evolving… and despite the deployment delays, management says the underlying customer contracts remain intact.

Demand hasn’t necessarily disappeared.

The challenge is bringing infrastructure online fast enough to monetize it.

The growth opportunity remains substantial.

And these financing developments are encouraging.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Why is $NBIS selling off after earnings?

- Revenue grew 571% YoY to 981M.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached 466M.

And yet the stock is getting absolutely hammered…

Unfortunately, investors aren’t questioning the demand for AI infrastructure as much as they’re questioning the cost and timing of delivering it.

A few things stood out to me.

Management now expects 2026 revenue toward the low end of its previous $3B–$3.4B outlook.

The 7B+ annualized revenue run-rate milestone has shifted from December to February because of infrastructure deployment delays.

2026 capex guidance increased to approximately $27B, while 2027 capex is expected to reach $40B–$45B.

Approximately $325M of Q3 revenue was non-recurring… excluding that contribution, revenue was closer to 656M.

The headline growth is impressive, but not all of it reflects recurring cloud consumption.

Now combine all of this:

1) Higher spending
2) Delayed revenue
3) Enormous financing requirements

And that’s why I believe the market is reacting so negatively.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Why is $NBIS selling off after earnings?

- Revenue grew 571% YoY to 981M.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached 466M.

And yet the stock is getting absolutely hammered…

Unfortunately, investors aren’t questioning the demand for AI infrastructure as much as they’re questioning the cost and timing of delivering it.

A few things stood out to me.

Management now expects 2026 revenue toward the low end of its previous $3B–$3.4B outlook.

The 7B+ annualized revenue run-rate milestone has shifted from December to February because of infrastructure deployment delays.

2026 capex guidance increased to approximately $27B, while 2027 capex is expected to reach $40B–$45B.

Approximately $325M of Q3 revenue was non-recurring… excluding that contribution, revenue was closer to 656M.

The headline growth is impressive, but not all of it reflects recurring cloud consumption.

Now combine all of this:

1) Higher spending
2) Delayed revenue
3) Enormous financing requirements

And that’s why I believe the market is reacting so negatively.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@OInvests 😂😂😂

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

I’m seeing people question whether $CRWV’s reported 4B+ investment-grade financing is bullish or bearish.

Personally, I view this as a positive development.

For weeks, one of the biggest arguments against $CRWV has been its cost of capital.

Investors were pointing to unsecured bond yields approaching 15% and questioning whether the company could continue financing its enormous AI infrastructure expansion.

Now $CRWV is reportedly arranging at least $4B in financing backed by GPU infrastructure and customer contracts, with borrowing costs potentially around 7%–7.5%.

On $4B of debt:

- At 15% interest = $600M annually
- At 7.5% interest = $300M annually

That’s a potential $300M difference in annual interest costs.

Management also disclosed that its weighted-average cost of debt was 7.9% at the end of Q3, down 250 basis points YoY.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@SharestepAI Looks like they are not going to 0$ in the end… 😆

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Bullish $CRWV

The CEO also cancelled his prearranged stock-selling plan.

Remember, insider selling has been one of the criticisms surrounding $CRWV.

After the enormous drawdown we’ve witnessed, I think it’s a positive signal of management’s confidence.

Management is targeting adjusted net income profitability in the first half of 2028.

Management is outlining:

- Approximately $9B in expected customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months.

- Nearly $5B available to draw from existing delayed-draw term loans.

- More than $9B of infrastructure already recorded as construction in progress.

- A planned GPU-backed financing transaction expected to carry interest around 7%–7.5%.

Some of $CRWV unsecured debt has been trading at yields approaching 15%.

On $5B of borrowing, financing at 7.5% instead of 15% would represent approximately $375M in annual interest savings.

That’s an illustration, not a confirmed financing deal, but it shows just how important the cost of capital is.

And don’t forget the actual operating performance:

- Q3 revenue grew 168% YoY to 3.66B.
- GAAP operating income reached 207M.
- Adjusted operating income reached 379M.
- Backlog climbed to 132.5B.

We’re seeing evidence of operating leverage while management is working toward cheaper financing.

I think these developments could provide some much-needed relief for $CRWV and the broader neocloud sector, including $NBIS.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

After digging deeper into $CRWV earnings, I think there’s a lot more to this quarter than just the revenue beat.

Three things really stand out to me.

1. Interest expense:

Q2 interest expense: $640M
Q3 interest expense: $846M

Sounds terrible, right?

But relative to revenue, interest expense actually declined from approximately 24.9% to 23.1%.

Revenue is growing faster than interest costs.

2. Operating leverage:

GAAP operating income went from a $49M loss in Q2 to a $207M profit in Q3.

Adjusted operating income increased from $128M to 379M.

Adjusted operating margins improved from 5% to 10.4%.

We’re finally seeing meaningful operating leverage as revenue scales.

3. Customer prepayments:

Management expects approximately $9B in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months.

This is huge from a financing perspective.

Rather than relying entirely on debt or issuing additional shares to fund GPU infrastructure, customers are helping finance the buildout.

And now look at valuation.

At roughly $49 per share, $CRWV has a market cap around 27B.

Revenue backlog: 132.5B.

That’s approximately 4.9 x its equity market cap.

Do I think $48 could mark a bottom? Absolutely possible.

These earnings strengthened my confidence in the underlying business.

The next step is proving that this extraordinary growth can translate into sustainable free cash flow for shareholders.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@mdnghtmss Call was bullish!

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

$CRWV

Not moving much AH after a double beat and raise…

Waiting for the earnings call.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

$CRWV $NBIS

Finally, a potential sign of relief for the neocloud sector after an absolutely brutal selloff.

A lot of the pressure on neocloud stocks has been tied to concerns surrounding $CRWV.

$CRWV just delivered some impressive numbers.

- Revenue: $3.66B (+168% YoY)
- Adjusted operating income: $379M
- Revenue backlog: $132.5B
- FY2026 revenue guidance: $13.0B–$13.3B
- Expected 2026 exit annual revenue run rate: $20B–$21B

To me, these results provide some reassurance on the DEMAND side of the equation.

Revenue is accelerating, backlog remains enormous, and adjusted operating income is improving.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@GrimGimlet Yup!

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

$HIMS

Important update…

On the company’s investor relations website, the Q3 earnings presentation has just been posted, and the 2030 targets remain in the presentation.

For those unfamiliar:

- 6.5B+ in annual revenue
- 1.3B+ in adjusted EBITDA

Now, having them included in the presentation doesn’t automatically mean they’re guaranteed to be achieved.

We still need answers surrounding subscriber growth, declining gross margins, and the path toward stronger profitability.

But the fact that these targets remain in the materials is encouraging.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Also, during yesterday’s $HIMS earnings call… management did not reiterate its 2030 financial targets.

For those who have been following me for a while, you know I’ve been building much of my long-term valuation framework around management’s 2030 ambitions:

- 6.5B+ in annual revenue
- 1.3B+ in adjusted EBITDA

And based on the valuation models I’ve been working on, those numbers could imply some serious upside for $HIMS over the next 3–5 years.

So naturally, the absence of any reaffirmation caught my attention.

Now, am I going to panic because management didn’t explicitly mention those targets on one earnings call? No… because not reiterating guidance is not the same thing as withdrawing it.

But I also don’t want to blindly assume those targets remain achievable without evaluating how the underlying business is progressing.

Subscriber growth has weakened and near-term profitability expectations have come down.

Those developments matter when you’re building a valuation framework around $1.3B in eventual adjusted EBITDA.

Management also mentioned that it intends to discuss longer-term success metrics in greater detail next quarter alongside its 2027 outlook.

I’ll be paying very close attention to that.

I would really like to hear management explicitly reaffirm those 2030 financial ambitions, or explain how its expectations have evolved.

I think shareholders deserve that clarity, especially after a quarter like this.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@HunterAllen4 I’m 10000% with you here. The surface level numbers look terrible, but I think there’s a lot more going on beneath them.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

After digging deeper into $CRWV earnings, I think there’s a lot more to this quarter than just the revenue beat.

Three things really stand out to me.

1. Interest expense:

Q2 interest expense: $640M
Q3 interest expense: $846M

Sounds terrible, right?

But relative to revenue, interest expense actually declined from approximately 24.9% to 23.1%.

Revenue is growing faster than interest costs.

2. Operating leverage:

GAAP operating income went from a $49M loss in Q2 to a $207M profit in Q3.

Adjusted operating income increased from $128M to 379M.

Adjusted operating margins improved from 5% to 10.4%.

We’re finally seeing meaningful operating leverage as revenue scales.

3. Customer prepayments:

Management expects approximately $9B in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months.

This is huge from a financing perspective.

Rather than relying entirely on debt or issuing additional shares to fund GPU infrastructure, customers are helping finance the buildout.

And now look at valuation.

At roughly $49 per share, $CRWV has a market cap around 27B.

Revenue backlog: 132.5B.

That’s approximately 4.9 x its equity market cap.

Do I think $48 could mark a bottom? Absolutely possible.

These earnings strengthened my confidence in the underlying business.

The next step is proving that this extraordinary growth can translate into sustainable free cash flow for shareholders.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

$CRWV

Not moving much AH after a double beat and raise…

Waiting for the earnings call.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@himscollector Very true!

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

I know… I am tweeting a tone right now but one last interesting takeaway from $HIMS earnings:

Subscribers declined 3.6% QoQ, from 2.891M to 2.788M.

However, monthly revenue per average subscriber increased from $92 to $105, up approximately 14%.

So while the subscriber base contracted, $HIMS is generating more revenue per subscriber.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@LifeLoveMoney20 Q4 is important. Let’s see.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@The3rdReginald Huberman’s involvement could help $HIMS reduce its customer acquisition costs (CAC).

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@Sunrise1271 GM from 74% to 57% but GP has been increasing rapidly… At this stage, I think more GP is more valuable for $HIMS.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Also, during yesterday’s $HIMS earnings call… management did not reiterate its 2030 financial targets.

For those who have been following me for a while, you know I’ve been building much of my long-term valuation framework around management’s 2030 ambitions:

- 6.5B+ in annual revenue
- 1.3B+ in adjusted EBITDA

And based on the valuation models I’ve been working on, those numbers could imply some serious upside for $HIMS over the next 3–5 years.

So naturally, the absence of any reaffirmation caught my attention.

Now, am I going to panic because management didn’t explicitly mention those targets on one earnings call? No… because not reiterating guidance is not the same thing as withdrawing it.

But I also don’t want to blindly assume those targets remain achievable without evaluating how the underlying business is progressing.

Subscriber growth has weakened and near-term profitability expectations have come down.

Those developments matter when you’re building a valuation framework around $1.3B in eventual adjusted EBITDA.

Management also mentioned that it intends to discuss longer-term success metrics in greater detail next quarter alongside its 2027 outlook.

I’ll be paying very close attention to that.

I would really like to hear management explicitly reaffirm those 2030 financial ambitions, or explain how its expectations have evolved.

I think shareholders deserve that clarity, especially after a quarter like this.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@AlphaIncHQ They just posted the presentation!

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@HighImpactInfo They just posted it!

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@LifeLoveMoney20 Have you ever seen the quote from Bezos on gross margins? Check it out. 😄

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

Investing comes with ups and downs. And if there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s that patience is incredibly important.

$HIMS ~$25 average
$SOFI ~$12 average
$ZETA ~$18 average
$OSCR ~$14 average

Together, these four companies account for roughly 80% of my long-term portfolio.

One thing they all have in common is that I’m investing in what I believe these businesses can become by 2030, not what their share prices do next week.

I held $OSCR through months of volatility, uncertainty, and frustration. It took well over a year for the market to finally start recognizing what I believed was an undervalued business.

$ZETA was another example.

For months, the stock struggled below $20. Sentiment was poor, investors were impatient, and the market wasn’t giving the company much credit.

Then we finally saw the stock break out and surge higher.

Neither investment played out overnight.

Which brings me to $HIMS.

I’ve been extremely bullish on this business, and I’m not going to pretend the latest earnings report was perfect.

Subscriber declines concern me. Gross margin compression concerns me. And management not reiterating its 2030 financial targets on the earnings call certainly raises questions.

But I keep asking myself one question:

Has my long-term investment thesis fundamentally broken?

Does one quarter of declining subscribers invalidate the opportunity for $HIMS to become a much larger global healthcare platform over the next 4–5 years?

Personally, I don’t think we have enough evidence to conclude that yet.

And that’s why I believe Q4 will be particularly important.

I want to see stabilization in subscribers, continued gross profit growth, a clearer path toward sustainable profitability, and most importantly, management providing clarity on its 2030 targets of 6.5B+ in revenue and 1.3B+ in adjusted EBITDA.

I’ve built a substantial part of my valuation framework around those targets. If management’s confidence in achieving them has changed, then my valuation assumptions need to change too.

But I’m also not going to abandon a multiyear investment thesis because of one disappointing quarter.

[Stocker-Man @TheStockerMan]

@giandoserra Yup! I believe the 6.5B revenue target is sandbagged.

Any upside on the 2030 EBITDA target would be huge.