Topzhen

Staying on top of things by understanding what the market is pricing.
Stocks, macro and the stuff in between.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

In my opinion, calling $HOOD a brokerage is starting to miss what the company is turning into.

For transparency, I am long $HOOD . I think a thesis is easier to judge when you know whether the person writing it actually has skin in the game.

The core business is still growing. Particularly, Q2 revenue hit a record $1.31B. Platform assets reached $384B in August and equity trading volume was up 68% YoY.

Robinhood processed 4.7B prediction-market contracts in August. That is 15x last year! It now has more than 1M funded customers internationally. Stock tokens are already available across more than 120 countries and Robinhood is building its own blockchain infrastructure around them.

The company's direction is clear. They does not want you opening the app only when the stock market is open. Stocks. Options. Crypto. Prediction markets. Tokenized assets. They can all be traded for longer hours and across more countries.

I believe the next leg of the story is less about adding another few million brokerage accounts. It is more about getting existing customers to use more products and more often in a day.

Of course, there are risks as well. A lot of these newer businesses are still tied to trading activity and regulation. Prediction markets are facing legal challenges and tokenized equities are still tiny compared with the traditional stock market.

There is still plenty to prove but I think the next few years are more about watching Robinhood’s revenue mix than just watching funded-account growth.

The stock is also running into overhead supply around 120-125 near the September high. A clean push through that area would make the setup stronger. Rejection there would make me more cautious about adding.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@HunterAllen4 good call mate

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

SoftBank is borrowing more than $11B to fund its OpenAI investment. Some of the bonds are being marketed around 9% to 10%.

My opinion is that AI is starting to get a real cost of capital. Funding these bets from cash is one thing. Borrowing at close to 10% changes the math pretty quickly.

OpenAI does not just need to grow now. The returns eventually have to justify some very expensive money. I think investors may start paying a lot more attention to cash generation from here.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@HunterAllen4 The Goat

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

bitcoin:native Bitcoin is back above $85K and $HOOD is up nearly 5% premarket.

Last quarter, crypto was only 8% of Robinhood’s revenue. Prediction markets already made more. My view is that Bitcoin matters more to Robinhood as an activity trigger now.

People come back for crypto and Robinhood has a lot more ways to make money from them once they are there.

Options. Prediction markets. Gold. Margin.

If the rebound sticks, I will be watching the rest of the platform rather than just crypto revenue.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

In my opinion, calling $HOOD a brokerage is starting to miss what the company is turning into.

For transparency, I am long $HOOD . I think a thesis is easier to judge when you know whether the person writing it actually has skin in the game.

The core business is still growing. Particularly, Q2 revenue hit a record $1.31B. Platform assets reached $384B in August and equity trading volume was up 68% YoY.

Robinhood processed 4.7B prediction-market contracts in August. That is 15x last year! It now has more than 1M funded customers internationally. Stock tokens are already available across more than 120 countries and Robinhood is building its own blockchain infrastructure around them.

The company's direction is clear. They does not want you opening the app only when the stock market is open. Stocks. Options. Crypto. Prediction markets. Tokenized assets. They can all be traded for longer hours and across more countries.

I believe the next leg of the story is less about adding another few million brokerage accounts. It is more about getting existing customers to use more products and more often in a day.

Of course, there are risks as well. A lot of these newer businesses are still tied to trading activity and regulation. Prediction markets are facing legal challenges and tokenized equities are still tiny compared with the traditional stock market.

There is still plenty to prove but I think the next few years are more about watching Robinhood’s revenue mix than just watching funded-account growth.

The stock is also running into overhead supply around 120-125 near the September high. A clean push through that area would make the setup stronger. Rejection there would make me more cautious about adding.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@HunterAllen4 Do you even sleep bro 🤣

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@HunterAllen4 Built different indeed 💯

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

Pretty ugly weekend for geopolitics. Ukraine escalated attacks on Russia and the Houthis hit Saudi targets again.

Futures still opened green and oil is lower.

My view is that markets may be starting to price peak escalation rather than another leg worse from here.

A lot of the obvious damage has already happened. Oil has been above $100. Shipping has been disrupted. Saudi infrastructure has been attacked.

However, it can still deteriorate. Need to see whether the next headlines actually move oil, shipping or yields.

$QQQ $SPY

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@HunterAllen4 Thanks bro you are so active here!

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@haydeninvestsX Glad it helps!

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

DeepSeek V4.1 Flash is 64.8% of token volume on Vercel. It is only 4.5% of spend.

My take is that token volume is starting to tell us less about where the money goes. Cheap open models can soak up a huge amount of inference without creating much revenue.

That probably pushes OpenAI and Anthropic further toward work companies are willing to pay more for. OpenAI is already leaning harder into Codex and agents. Anthropic is doing the same with Claude Code.

If the cheapest "good enough" model keeps changing, developers have less reason to stay loyal to one API. I can see model pricing falling while spend on agents keeps rising. AI usage could grow much faster than model revenue from here.

Token volume may become a poor measure of who is winning economically.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@HunterAllen4 Awesome list of people to connect with in the space. Thanks mate!

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@HunterAllen4 your posts are fire as well!

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@alexandr_wang for coding, predictable behavior can sometimes matter more than squeezing out a few extra benchmark points

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@CNBC basically vertical integration for talent. Samsung and Hynix are trying to secure engineers years before they hit the job market

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@babyfolio "Read only" scopes and easy revocation would make me far more comfortable than just seeing META on the label

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@jukan05 feels less like a memory bet and more like he is looking at the whole AI buildout. Chips. Power. Infrastructure.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

CXMT says its new DRAM process can produce 50% more dies per wafer.

My take is that China does not need to catch $MU Micron in HBM to matter here. Fifty percent more dies is a lot of extra conventional DRAM supply. Micron leans harder into HBM because of it.

The uncomfortable part comes later. If HBM pricing cools, Micron could be coming back to a DRAM market that is already more crowded.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@AdityaInvests90 $HOOD is diversified by product but a lot of those products still depend on the same thing: retail activity staying hot. I am bullish on the stock but there is a need to see how the revenue mix develops from here.

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@HunterAllen4 physical AI looks a lot less "winner take all" than cloud AI. Every factory needs its own integration, safety certs and uptime economics still

[Topzhen @TheTopzhen]

@StockSavvyShay Posted about $HOOD too. I believe the next leg of the story is less about adding another few million brokerage accounts. It is more about getting existing customers to use more products and more often in a day.