The Augur

Searching for those fat tails. Ex-macro / fixed income analyst now trading politics on prediction markets.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

Are they? If he does, my bet is post lame duck. Poly attributes his seat to his election-day party, so a late flip is zero there. Kalshi probably resolves early on media calls too. Could matter in a D at 50/51 scenario where Osborn wins and sits on his caucus decision, or litigation keeps control uncalled when he flips.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

Under the operation, which has been underway for the last several weeks, 15–20 tankers have entered and exited the strait each night through a southern channel along the coast of Oman

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@tomangell So the claim is the hearing was theater and Blanche will reject Julius? Odd way to do it: open a new docket, file 50 pages calling opponents' arguments without merit, and ask the ALJ to act expeditiously. Blanche is making his lawyers win a case he plans to lose?

[The Augur @The_Augur]

didn’t the strike specify it was “Pepsi brand not PepsiCo”?

And even if you didn’t have the parents / sub language, I’m sure a lot of folks would have argued the ad was showing Google’s AI powered search (which is essentially Gemini).

Anyway, they listed “OpenAI / ChatGPT” for another strike, so it really makes you wonder why they didn’t just do “Gemini / Google”.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

hey @kepochnik was looking into this today. do you think JimBobBoi (the account that swept the book to 99¢) is an insider? looks suspicious — their only other bets were NYC mayoral races, and they've kept buying Yes at 80-83¢ over the past few weeks.

also saw some coordinated wash trading on the Discord IPO before 2027 market. but no glaring insider activity in the full-year market — makes me wonder if the decline in full-year odds is just downstream of the June 30 market move.

no actual Discord IPO news from credible sources since the confidential filing in January.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@Polymarket Fixed those odds for you.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

Important to note the two markets are different in how they handle a potential Khamenei death. Kalshi's rules (as a CFTC complaint market without war markets) states if "Khamenei leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death)." Polymarket on the other hand, would resolve Yes to 100%.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@Georgesantos Muted suit, save the bedazzle for the afterparty! Who's hosting you this time?

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@JakeSherman @allymutnick I continue to believe many are underestimating the odds SCOVA renders this a 2028 map.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@negativeyen @tomdnc Yeah… I got absolutely cooked. My P&L aged like milk in the Sahara — easily my worst beat ever.

Serves me right for spending days analyzing a market where the outcome is still really just a black box.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@carlmrski @tomdnc @Polymarket What do you think the appropriate odds for d4vd are? Agree it's hard to see #1, but Wikipedia page views show dv4d at least pretty close with Censori. Are you using anything besides Google Trends?

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@Econ_Parker Do you have an updated version of this chart through July? Your analysis is always so insightful.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@passedpawn what exactly do you think is suppressing VIX?

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@GavinSBaker Do you know why 4 weeks? Isn't the WARN notice period generally 60 days? When I recently compiled a sample of large-states WARN notices filed in Feb/Mar they were trending 10% above 2019 levels.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@moldvayendre Any thoughts on how next winter is looking? I’ve read analysis arguing TTF Dec23 at 54 is not embedding any winter premium and that there is asymmetric upside risk given better industrial demand, China LNG demand, and the continuing risk of a full Russia shutoff.

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@MacroAlf Also multiple jobholders as a % of total employment remains below pre-COVID levels https://t.co/DGiWw53ZAi

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@MacroAlf Can you point me to the 700k #? This series shows only +596k additional multiple jobholders, though quite volatile, with -250k decline in Oct followed by 165k increase in Nov. https://t.co/zn18LfMDlG

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@moldvayendre Thanks for sharing your analysis; this is a very helpful thread. Could you share your source for the historical LNG sendout to the EU, EU production, and pipeline flows?

[The Augur @The_Augur]

@Thinkagain2022 What would be a more appropriate model to use?