The Budget Lab

The Budget Lab is a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal proposals for the American economy.

[John Iselin @john_iselin]

1/ After last week’s midterms delivered the Democrats control of the house and senate, legislators are focused on how they can lower costs. One option would be to roll back some portion of the current tariff regime. https://t.co/3BRYV2THhi

[The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab]

@marthagimbel discusses with NPR's "All Things Considered" how the new Congress can address affordability concerns https://t.co/KKzwCRlkbq

[The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab]

As always, it's good to keep in mind how payroll growth compares to breakeven estimates: https://t.co/NVzjLc1Hpa. Those of us who are used to higher breakeven numbers (when the labor force was growing faster) need to remember that it doesn't take as much employment growth these days to keep unemployment low.

[The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab]

Jobs Day Commentary from Ryan Nunn, Director of Research, @The_Budget_Lab: This is a quite strong report. The most important thing to know is the October unemployment rate of 4.14%. This is low, both compared to a year ago and in historical context; it's also a tick lower than the 4.2% folks were expecting.

[The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab]

To be sure, a strong labor market doesn't mean everyone is doing well. Spiking energy prices have pushed inflation above average hourly earnings growth for much of this year. This has been worse for noncollege workers, because they spend more on energy/transportation and have thus faced higher inflation than college graduates. Check out our jobs day preview for more on this: https://t.co/K1COKeDmX6

[The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab]

See our jobs day preview for more: "High inflation and low wage growth have hit noncollege workers especially hard in 2026." And thanks to the excellent Economic Heterogeneity Indicators and Wage Growth Tracker resources provided by the New York and Atlanta Feds. https://t.co/K1COKeDmX6

[The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab]

This Friday we will learn how strong wage growth was in October. So far in 2026 it has been slowing down, running well below the elevated inflation we’ve seen since the conflict with Iran began. This matters for a few reasons, including the Fed’s assessment of how hot the economy is running, but most fundamentally it matters for affordability.

[The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab]

Noncollege workers also appear to have received smaller wage increases in 2026, compounding their struggles with affordability. This has been the case for a couple years now, reversing the trend from the early 2020s.

[Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV]

America’s national debt has climbed past $40 trillion and persistent deficits are putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Economists including Natasha Sarin of the Yale Budget Lab argue that heavier government borrowing ultimately filters through to households in the form of higher mortgages, car loans and other financing costs. More on Wall Street Week https://t.co/YXGbySV2qD

[Natasha Sarin @NatashaRSarin]

So happy to get to chat with @crampell for @nytopinion as we attempt to make sense of the economy ahead of the midterms just days away.

Come for how much is Trump to blame; stay for an impassioned defense of statistical agencies!

Watch/listen here:
https://t.co/kO55d1DDBH

[Natasha Sarin @NatashaRSarin]

Affordability is defining the midterms just weeks away, and likely to define the next presidential election, too.

Here's my latest for @nytopinion on what I think this crisis is really about -- and what policymakers should do about it.

https://t.co/vIhO7pJcaQ

[Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel]

Great to speak with @AnnieLowrey about why the new jobs that emerge from AI may have absolutely nothing to do with AI and what the fact that our parents all think we spend our money indulgently can teach us. https://t.co/xKzcROIilz

[Economic Innovation Group @InnovateEconomy]

🤖 How will AI reshape the future of work?

@marthagimbel of @The_Budget_Lab and @John_Bailey of @AEI join EIG's @ngoldschlag to explore what AI means for American workers and the policies needed to navigate a changing labor market.

#AmericanWorkerConference

[Ricco @riccoja]

The Survey of Consumer Finances is the best publicly available data on household wealth. As a side effect, it contains lots of tax-relevant insights. A quick rundown of how @The_Budget_Lab uses the SCF, and what the new 2025 data say about tax trends:

https://t.co/KIzJFSrw9e

[Abhi Gupta @abhiecon]

The effects of many public investments build over decades, well beyond a 10-year budget window. In new @The_Budget_Lab work, we find childcare subsidies can boost potential GDP in the long run, but deficit financing can reverse those gains. (1/5) https://t.co/AwI8lw6Pfw

[The Budget Lab @The_Budget_Lab]

Webinar on Oct. 19 at 2pm ET. A conversation with @NatashaRSarin @The_Budget_Lab @YaleLawSch and Eric Zwick, Professor of Economics and Finance at the @ChicagoBooth on his new book, "The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There" (co-authored with Owen Zidar), and what the rise of this hidden class of entrepreneurs means for inequality, opportunity, and tax policy.
Register: https://t.co/WqEbFREKRc.