Alexander Forbes launched Riverine Estate in Kitengela in 2014. Sh2.6bn, 211 units, completion target Dec 2017. It's 2026 and units are still on the market. 10+ years to move inventory on a pension-fund-backed project tells you something about Kenyan real estate absorption rates — not demand, execution.
Sam Altman on why you shouldn't wait to start a company:
"There's no pre-startup like there is premed. You learn how to run a startup by running a startup."
New episode: Peter Thiel on How to Build a Creative Monopoly
Or what I learned from reading Zero to One for the 3rd (or 4th) time:
0:00 Every great entrepreneur is first and foremost a designer.
0:21 Long-term planning is often undervalued by our indefinite short-term world.
1:24 Founders only sell when they have no more concrete visions for the company. Definitive founders with robust plans don't sell.
2:03 A startup is the largest endeavor over which you can have definitive mastery.
3:44 Don’t do anything someone else can do.
4:29 Today's best practices lead to dead ends. The best paths are new and untried.
5:05 Technology is miraculous because it allows us to do more with less, ratcheting up our fundamental capabilities to a higher level. By creating new technologies, we rewrite the plan of the world.
6:25 Indeed, the single most powerful pattern I have noticed is that successful people find value in unexpected places, and they do this by thinking about business from first principles instead of formulas.
9:16 Brilliant thinking is rare, but courage is even in shorter supply than genius.
9:53 The present is the past biting into the future.
10:37 Small groups of people bound together by a sense of mission have changed the world for the better.
11:25 This is what startup has to do: question received ideas and rethink business from scratch.
13:36 The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd, but to think for yourself.
15:57 Creative monopoly means new products that benefit everybody and sustainable profits for its creator.
18:50 If you're interested in making things, you'll be less afraid to pursue this activity single-mindedly and thereby become incredibly good at them.
22:03 If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: Will this business still be around a decade from now?
26:30 Every monopoly dominates a large share of its market. Therefore, every startup should start with a very small market. Always err on the side of starting too small. If you think your initial market might be too big, it almost certainly is.
28:53 Competition is for losers. Avoid competition as much as possible.
29:44 The definitive person determines the one best thing to do and then does it. The definitive person strives to be great at something substantial. They strive to be a monopoly of one.
31:15 What is luck? The ability to exploit accidents. — Napoleon
33:20 We do not live in a normal world. We live under a power law. And as a result, company outcomes follow a power law. A small handful of companies radically outperform all others.
34:00 If you do start your own company, you must remember the power law to operate it well.
34:05 The most important things are singular.
36:29 Making mistakes is the privilege of the active.
38:00 The best entrepreneurs know this: Every great business is built around a secret that is hidden from the outside. A great company is a conspiracy to change the world. When you share your secret, the recipient becomes a fellow conspirator.
40:54 A small company depends on great people much more than a big company does.
41:15 The founding of a company lasts as long as a company is creating new things, and it ends when creation stops.
41:25 No company has a culture. Every company is a culture.
41:48 Since time is your most valuable asset, it is odd to spend it working with people who you don't envision any long-term future together.
42:09 Recruiting is a core competency for any company. It should never be outsourced.
42:37 Your company should be a tribe of like-minded people fiercely devoted to the company mission.
44:02 Superior sales and distribution by itself can create a monopoly, even with no product differentiation. The converse is not true.
44:24 Advertising matters because it works. It works on nerds and it works on you.
44:49 Advertising doesn't exist to make you buy a product right away. It exists to embed subtle impressions that will drive sales later.
46:29 Poor sales rather than bad product is the most common cause of failure. If you can get just one distribution channel to work, you have a great business.
49:00 When Howard Hughes was awarded the Congressional Gold Medal in 1939 for his achievements in aviation, he didn't even show up to claim it.
52:00 The most important task in business, the creation of new value, cannot be reduced to a formula and applied by professionals.
Africa's top milk producers (annual, million tonnes):
🇪🇬 Egypt — 7.5
🇰🇪 Kenya — 6.8
🇺🇬 Uganda — 5.3
🇹🇿 Tanzania — 5.0
🇪🇹 Ethiopia — 4.3
🇿🇦 South Africa — 3.8
Africa = 5% of global milk output, despite 20% of world's cattle.
Money is simply the receipt people give you for solving meaningful problems. The bigger the problem you solve consistently, the more wealth you create.
KFC hired 23 of 24 applicants in Jack Ma's city. He was the 1 rejection. He later ran a $25 billion IPO.
The clip is Ma at Davos, 2015, reading out his rejection resume with a grin.
Harvard: applied 10 times, rejected 10 times.
The police: 5 classmates applied, 4 got in. His rejection came with a review: "you're no good."
KFC arrives in his city: 24 apply, 23 hired. He's the leftover, again.
Even the future disagreed with him. In 1996 he pitched internet businesses door to door in Hangzhou and got called a con man.
In 1999 he gathered 17 friends in his apartment and founded Alibaba on $60,000 of pooled savings.
In 2014 it listed in New York at $25 billion, the largest IPO in history at the time. His English-teacher salary had been $12 a month.
His Davos advice from the pile of rejections: get used to it, the no's are training.
Then the sequel proved him right again. A 2020 speech criticizing regulators cost him the $317 billion Ant listing, and he vanished from public view for months.
Rejected by KFC, erased by Beijing. Still worth $25 billion.
Every door closed on him once. He owns the building now.
KCB HY 26 Results and investor briefing will be on 12th August 2026. Interim Dividend inakuja.
When you position yourself on time and remain invested you'll be making money even when asleep.
Kenya's formal milk market is an oligopoly hiding behind 5.7bn litres of production:
🥛 Brookside ~40%
🥛 New KCC ~25%
🥛 Sameer ~14%
🥛 Githunguri/Fresha ~12-16%
Top 4 control 85%+ of formal intake. But formal is only 15-20% of national output — the real market is still the informal roadside vendor.