Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II

Accidental polymath aspirant. Curmudgeon to fiat surfers. Dabbler in Böhm-Bawerk, Bitcoin, Hayek, Burke, Agazzari, Aquinus, and Athanasius. Easily confused.

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

Can confirm vehemently.

[Jesse Tinsley @JesseTinsley]

Imagine telling someone in 1999…

The year is 2026.

The President is Donald Trump in his second non consecutive term.

The richest man in the world is PayPal cofounder Elon Musk… but not because of fintech or Paypal. Because of rockets, electric cars, AI, satellites, brain chips and something called “Boring Company”.

Apple is worth trillions but its main business isn’t computers… its selling glass rectangles everyone stares at for 9 hours a day.

People don’t watch TV. They watch teenagers explain geopolitics, finance, and relationship advice in ~60 second videos.

The biggest taxi company owns no taxis.
The biggest hotel company owns no hotels.
The most powerful media companies are social networks where everyone argues with strangers for free.

Kids are making millions filming themselves playing video games.

AI Robots write emails, code, legal memos, songs, essays, and breakup texts.

The internet is mostly bots arguing with humans who are trying to prove they aren’t bots.

You can summon a car, groceries, a doctor, a date, a private jet, or a dog walker from your phone.

People pay real money for invisible currencies, digital monkeys, AI girlfriends and pictures that disappear after 24 hours.

The richest companies in the world don’t sell oil, steel, or cars. They sell attention, compute, data, and addiction.

And somehow, after all of that everyone is still using Excel.

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

Let's hope she's right: The Red-Blue Economic Divide by @KimStrassel https://t.co/zZLaHvjiem via @WSJopinion

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

The Greenspan put is dead; long live the Greenspan put. Amazing mind, this man, a pity he seemed to trade a commitment to sound money for influence. It may have been worse still, with another hand on the presumptive tiller, but at some point one tires of choosing the lesser evil.

[Pierre Rochard @BitcoinPierre]

Rest in peace Alan Greenspan

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

@Chesschick01 Sold me.

[Mises Media @mises_media]

The economics profession declared Austrian capital theory dead after the reswitching controversy. Two Harvard economists just wrote a 103-page paper testing Böhm-Bawerk's framework against trade data—and it works. @BobMurphyEcon #HAPod

[Mises Media @mises_media]

Ludwig von @Mises: the question is not plan or no plan. Everyone plans. The question is whose plan. When the great plan and the plans of individuals come into conflict, who decides? The police decide. And they decide in favor of the great plan. https://t.co/XgpPFsyecx

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

Warsh gets plaudits from @wolfofwolfst -- an encouraging sign: https://t.co/t0BR8AIHQC

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

@landryst Good choice. Savall is a master. As it happens, the missus and I were rehearsing some Lully and Lambert for an upcoming concert.

[Foundation for Economic Education @feeonline]

Roger Garrison helped modernize one of the most important insights in Austrian macroeconomics.

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

@SantiagoAuFund I’d noticed this. Like his work but the slant is work to filter out.

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

@charismoben Kind of a reverse derivative of Pascal's wager?? Yeah, I don't like the odds either.

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

90 minutes' talk on fiat, agriculture, and risk right here: https://t.co/gXGzX8LEO0

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

@atrembath Wow, is he still talking? Dogs will ever bark, I guess...

[Thomas "Buy the Dip" Walker II @ThomasWalkerII]

Banger analysis : https://t.co/NyfTNX8Cfj

[UnveiledChina @Unveiled_ChinaX]

Beijing thought it could hold the entire global tech industry hostage by locking down rare earth minerals, but Western innovators just broke the CCP’s chokehold. A Wall Street Journal report highlights a massive wave of optimism as industries successfully eliminate their reliance on Chinese critical minerals. For decades, Beijing controlled up to 90% of global rare earth processing, using that monopoly as political leverage. However, its recent aggressive export restrictions backfired completely, triggering an unprecedented boom in non-Chinese processing and substitution technologies that cannot be undone.

Leading this technological rebellion is Minnesota-based startup Niron Magnetics, which has engineered the world’s first high-performance, rare-earth-free permanent magnets using iron nitride. By utilizing iron and nitrogen, which are abundant, cheap, and entirely domestic raw materials, Niron completely bypasses the dirty refining loops controlled by China. This breakthrough has attracted massive backing from automotive giants like GM Ventures, Stellantis, and Volvo, alongside defense partnerships to build military hardware. Demand is already outstripping supply, forcing Niron to expand from a pilot facility to a massive 190,000-square-foot production plant to fulfill its contracts.

At the same time, startups like Conifer are transforming electric motors by swapping out rare earths for standard, abundant ferrite magnets. Conifer’s proprietary design slashes motor size and weight by up to 50% while boosting vehicle range and operating efficiency by up to 30%. These clean motors seamlessly drop into everything from delivery vehicles and robotics to data center cooling systems. By trying to weaponize its mineral monopoly, the CCP has accidentally forced the West to build a resilient, localized supply chain that leaves authoritarian chokeholds in the past.

#RareEarths #SupplyChain #NationalSecurity #CleanTech #ChinaDecoupling #Innovation #Geopolitics #NironMagnetics

https://t.co/7oWP1U6Jek

[Wolf Richter @wolfofwolfst]

Housing Market’s Crucial “Spring Selling Season” Winds Down with a Whimper. So Maybe Next Year?
But mortgage rates are not high historically, and “real” mortgage rates, amid resurging inflation, are relatively low
https://t.co/ZGsQghRzGM

[StripMallGuy @realEstateTrent]

MBA’s are for networking, not for learning.

Obviously.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Almost there...

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Jordi Visser says we will have a crash. He also says trying to call the exact top is ego, not strategy.

He frames AI not as a bubble but a $90 trillion global infrastructure buildout over the next decade.

The S&P 500 sits at all-time highs, but 97% of long returns come from AI-related sectors: semiconductors, hardware, power. Everything else is stagnant. This is not a broad market rally. It is a narrow infrastructure buildout rally masquerading as one.

His approach is, ride the momentum until 20-day and 50-day moving averages signal to reduce exposure, then rotate into scarcity assets that benefit from the buildout regardless.

The real alpha is not in the obvious AI winners. It is in the supply chain bottlenecks that are not yet priced for half of what is coming. Data centers, copper, silver, companies like Fujikura and Modine Manufacturing. The physical world cannot keep pace with AI demand.

The energy constraint is getting worse. Exxon and Chevron both said oil could hit $160. Goldman Sachs published capacity schedules showing summer peak load already past 135 gigawatts.

As of this morning, Iran has ended negotiations and vowed complete Hormuz closure, making that $160 scenario considerably more likely.

This connects to what @JohnTinsman laid out for us, compute leasing is a 3-4x ROI business. XAI built Colossus for $3-4 billion and leases it for $15 billion a year. Tinsman said demand is "insatiable" and we are not meeting half of it.

@jvisserlabs and Tinsman are arriving at the same conclusion from different directions. The AI buildout is real, the physical constraints are the binding variable, and Bitcoin benefits as the scarcity asset in an inflationary buildout.

On Bitcoin specifically, despite the AI boom, BTC has been range-bound. Visser remains long-term bullish, viewing Bitcoin as one of three moats that survived the test of time: gold, religion, Bitcoin.

His "Bitcoin IPO" thesis is that the massive distribution from early holders to ETF buyers is done. The next breakout will not stop because the seller base is exhausted.

[Melodies & Masterpieces @SVG__Collection]

“All musicians are subconsciously mathematicians.”

— Thelonious Monk