Three Check Bets with William Atkinson

Data-driven MLB, NFL and college football analysis. Free picks, model insights and transparent tracking. 21+ | No guarantees. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

Welcome to Three Check Bets.

We use data-driven models to analyze MLB, NFL and college football. During our public build, we'll share free picks, explain our process and track every published result transparently.

No guarantees. 21+. Bet responsibly.

https://t.co/PI9TKdS4Vs

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

Tomorrow: The Model vs. The Encyclopedia | NCAA Football Week 2

Joe Lisi and Three Check Bets CEO Bill Atkinson break down Saturday's board.

10:30 AM-12 PM ET
Watch: https://t.co/nuwo6QbEHP

The model brings the numbers. The Encyclopedia brings the knowledge.
#NCAAF

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

NCAAF WEEK 1 RESULTS: 5-3

W: North Texas +40, Baylor-Auburn 1H U27.5, UCLA -2.5, Nevada +1.5, Wisconsin-ND 1H U24.5

L: Liberty +6.5, Houston -21, NDSU -41.5

Every selection. Every result. Tracked transparently.
#NCAAF #SportsBetting

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

Watch the trailer for The Model vs. The Encyclopedia, featuring Three Check Bets and Joe Lisi.

Join us this Saturday, 10:30 AM–12 PM ET, for college football analysis where the model meets the Encyclopedia.

Watch: https://t.co/nuwo6QbEHP

21+. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

Big news: Three Check Bets is teaming up with Joe Lisi for The Model vs. The Encyclopedia, a weekly college football show where model-driven analysis meets Joe’s extensive football knowledge.

Every Saturday | 10:30 AM–12 PM ET

Watch: https://t.co/nuwo6QbEHP

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

THREE CHECK BETS | MLB FREE PLAY

COL at STL
Cardinals F5 ML -159
Playable to -165 | 1u | Tie = push

67.0% model with a +7.5% edge. BetOnline moved STL from -150 to -160. Leahy owns the ERA, xFIP and K-BB advantage; Third Order supports St. Louis early.

21+. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

No official free play today. We do not force action.

Our last 9 released free plays:
6-2-1
+2.72 units
+$272.45 at $100 flat risk
3 straight winners

Selectivity is part of the Three Check process.

21+. Past results are no guarantee. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

THREE CHECK BETS | MLB FREE PLAY

CWS at BOS | 7:10 PM ET
Boston Red Sox Full Game ML -125 at BookMaker

Max price: -127. Do not chase.

57.6% model vs. 54.0% no-vig. Dual-book movement supports Boston. MLB-best 24-6 over the last 30 with the bullpen edge.

21+. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

PIZZA MONEY FUTURES

MIL World Series +900
LA Rams NFC West +100
Parlay +1900 at DraftKings

Small, for-fun stake. My thesis: prices may shorten if Milwaukee lands Tarik Skubal and Aaron Donald returns to LA. Neither move is confirmed.

21+. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

TODAY'S FREE PLAY

MIA at NYM
Miami Marlins ML +110

Check 1: 23.8% model edge
Check 2: Circa 59% tickets, 87% handle on Miami
Check 3: Junk's xFIP/SIERA edge plus Miami's 110.4 projected lineup wRC+

Odds can move. 21+ Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

TODAY'S OFFICIAL FREE PLAY

TEX at TB
Tampa Bay ML -165 at MyBookie
Playable through -170

70.7% model vs. 61.4% no-vig. About 83% of wagers leaned Texas, yet Tampa moved from ~-110 into the -165/-185 range. Sharp books confirmed Tampa.

Odds move. 21+. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

TODAY'S OFFICIAL FREE PLAY

Boston Red Sox F5 ML -135 at DraftKings
9:40 PM ET

66.8% model vs. 54.1% no-vig market. Check 2 is confirmed, Sandoval owns the starter edge, and Boston's confirmed lineup is built for a lefty.

Odds can move. 21+. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

FREE MLB PICK

CLE at CIN, Game 1
Cincinnati F5 ML -157 at BetRivers

Chase Burns has the stronger pitching profile; Cleveland enters at 88.6 wRC+. The First Five keeps the bet centered on that early matchup.

Odds move. 21+. No guarantees. Bet responsibly.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

@jenpiacenti Appreciating the small moments along the big journey!

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

@GuruFantasyWrld Let everyone think that and hopefully he will fall in drafts and we can pick him up at a greater value than his current ADP!

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

@CallingOurShot Wheeler has been solid lately, it was a good play, the right play doesn't always win! Tomorrow is another day.

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

@GUnit_81 Good luck and Merry Pickmas!

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

@ESBNYY @SwiiFFtAyala @Yankees @SFGiants That would be a great deal for both teams!

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

@FAmmiranteTFJ Thanks for being transparent, in this industry that stands out to me!!!

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

@Bigbetsbrand123 When your transparent, you win my trust!

[Three Check Bets with William Atkinson @ThreeCheckBets]

@EthanKreagerFF I like your top 24, I don't disagree with CMC but his workload last year will prevent me from clicking on him this draft season. Your list is tight though!