Deast

It's turtles all the way down.

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

🚨BREAKING: OpenAI published a paper proving that ChatGPT will always make things up.

Not sometimes. Not until the next update. Always. They proved it with math.

Even with perfect training data and unlimited computing power, AI models will still confidently tell you things that are completely false. This isn't a bug they're working on. It's baked into how these systems work at a fundamental level.

And their own numbers are brutal. OpenAI's o1 reasoning model hallucinates 16% of the time. Their newer o3 model? 33%. Their newest o4-mini? 48%. Nearly half of what their most recent model tells you could be fabricated. The "smarter" models are actually getting worse at telling the truth.

Here's why it can't be fixed. Language models work by predicting the next word based on probability. When they hit something uncertain, they don't pause. They don't flag it. They guess. And they guess with complete confidence, because that's exactly what they were trained to do.

The researchers looked at the 10 biggest AI benchmarks used to measure how good these models are. 9 out of 10 give the same score for saying "I don't know" as for giving a completely wrong answer: zero points. The entire testing system literally punishes honesty and rewards guessing.

So the AI learned the optimal strategy: always guess. Never admit uncertainty. Sound confident even when you're making it up.

OpenAI's proposed fix? Have ChatGPT say "I don't know" when it's unsure. Their own math shows this would mean roughly 30% of your questions get no answer. Imagine asking ChatGPT something three times out of ten and getting "I'm not confident enough to respond." Users would leave overnight. So the fix exists, but it would kill the product.

This isn't just OpenAI's problem. DeepMind and Tsinghua University independently reached the same conclusion. Three of the world's top AI labs, working separately, all agree: this is permanent.

Every time ChatGPT gives you an answer, ask yourself: is this real, or is it just a confident guess?

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@VanLathan One word: Nebula

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@SheaSerrano hey found some cool original trilogy sets at a relative's house.

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@PTI Can't wait to hear the guys' takes on the incredible reporting Pablo is doing on the Clippers scandal! I'm sure it'll be today!

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

The #NFL today

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

This is a fun piece of psychological prodding from Netflix I hadn't seen before. Oh no, not my precious algorithm. How will I survive?

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@VenrisSFO I'm fixing to do some WANDERING

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@Srirachachau Only the real ones remember the old people swimming era. Birdman, Sealab, Home Movies, Space Ghost...what a time to be a night owl.

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@SheaSerrano God gives the hardest battles to his strongest warriors. Stay strong brother.

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@Gimply32 @DiabolicalSpuds

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@lukeisamazing Zoidberg telling the story of buying the miracle cream is one of his best bits.

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

Ok, perfect. Now that I've eaten my entire bowl of popcorn standing up while looking at my phone, I can settle in and watch the show I was trying to start.

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@Commanders Retire those terrible Monument White in favor of SB Era!

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@SheaSerrano

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@Srirachachau Children's Hospital was solid gold for at least 2 seasons.

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

After hearing @craighorlbeck hasn't seen it, I have a mighty need for a @SeanFennessey @ChrisRyan77 Snatch ep of @TheRewatchables.

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@MattZeitlin Margin Call and Master and Commander, the Bettany 2-pack

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@lukeisamazing These people really are sitting around thinking "man the shit I'd do if God didn't make it illegal."

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@qizeaq Oh no, I hate to hear that too. Might need to let this one cook and see how it is by the first DLC.

[Deast @ThreeDeast]

@MenasLG Playing offline, especially the first run, is the superiour experience. Then you can run it back for the notes, invasions, and co-ops.