Tibaliti

[Tibaliti @Tibaliti]

@CashmereLabs @RobinhoodApp LFG!

[Cashmere Labs @CashmereLabs]

Goat Street NFT GTD/WL form is now live.

48 hrs for applications.

Supply: 6666

Chain: @RobinhoodApp

MP: Free Mint

Form:
https://t.co/68UWjXzQSG

[Tibaliti @Tibaliti]

@CashmereLabs @RobinhoodApp tibaliti.csm
0x7c6BFC5502eb719137c4c857EbdefBc49451b680

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

prediction market traders - which kind of content do you like consuming?

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

this boggled my mind last month and I have been thinking about this ever since.

so, in the last seconds of a short duration polymarket bitcoin bet, if the bet is still close, some traders suddenly buy or sell a lot of bitcoin. trading jumps & it becomes easier to buy and sell bitcoin right then.

but right after the bet ends, the bitcoin price often moves back.

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

Prediction markets are not the future of betting.

A points-based, (and hence truth-incentivized and not hedge-polluted) prediction market is the first successful attempt to make the entire civilization keep a running, weighted score of how well it understands itself.

News media will become downstream of that score.

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

Prediction markets aren’t “wisdom of the crowd.”

They are the first system that makes private knowledge expensive to keep private.

Just like googling and chatting with AI - the yester modes - are now expensive.

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

what are some good teams innovating around prediction markets?

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

Building towards a better prediction market future is a concerted effort.

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

big shoes to fill

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

prediction markets aren't turning into better polls or sportsbooks.

they are destined to become the first continuous, capital-backed simulator of counterfactuals.

impact markets won't just price "will X happen?"
They'll price "what's Nvidia worth if GPT-6 ships before Gemini-4?" or "company valuation if they fire the CEO."

this is something that will become the major source of ground for AI models to make decisions.

think currently disintegrated belief becoming tradable infrastructure.

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

the state of prediction market regulations in the US is a clear example of how misaligned government bodies can trump innovation and value

prediction markets provide a financial instrument while disseminating information through incentives

with @Kalshi on this one.

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

if you have any feedback for me/fermah, pls fill the form in comments.

it could be on any topic - growth, product, marketing, etc.

coming from the belief that only those who are willing to learn from others are the ones who grow. collective wisdom > self wisdom, anyday

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

the only way to get stuff done...

is to stop trying.

and just. get. it. done.

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

Tesla reclaims the quarterly EV crown from BYD, but the numbers tell a more complicated story https://t.co/ccdjdat1is via @thenextwebjdjddjdjdudididf oh mnlkeshoozz is the best Thomas putting into my Nike shoes no dhxmxbxmz c no n fb it by forth

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

Inert protocols are not going to usher in the next gen apps

We need protocols that can act

Protocol agency

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

I said crypto's market cap is a rounding error next to AI, and that the reason isn't on anyone's list.

Here it is:

AI made software that can act.
Crypto only ever made software that can react.

That is the whole gap. 🧵

https://t.co/Ik9kgd7wUe

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

https://t.co/0ojFLkG3O7

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

here's a controversial take on where the v3 moment for prediction markets actually comes from. ready?

it's not a curve innovation.

it's an execution layer innovation.

and almost everyone building in this space is optimizing the wrong primitive. 🧵

[Vanishree Rao @vanishree_rao]

i bet that prediction markets with money in the picture can never be a crystal ball

there will always be people hedging and you can't discern their intent and take such bets out of the equation to create a clean crystal ball

there has to be two separate goals and two separate product categories:
goal 1: crystal ball
product 1: points-based, truthfulness incentivized prediction market

goal 2: betting financial instrument
product 2: money-based prediction market