@CarsonTalkMoney Yeah I’m gonna start to. Not as many deals out there
Most of my positions are filled out, but I want more Qualcomm and Sofi (and Meta if it stays this low)
@CarsonTalkMoney Yeah I panic sold after earnings cause I thought it was gonna be dead money for the next 2 quarters until things get sorted out 🤣
But i’ll def keep an eye on it
Especially Q4
I just think it needs time
$META $APP $UBER $CRWV
Meta under $600
Applovin is super cheap
Uber too (ik ur not a huge fan)
And Coreweave is higher risk, but everyone is compute constrained and the backlog is insane (100 billion and will probably grow)
I like Nebius more, but the valuation of coreweave is more asymmetric rn
It seems like uber bulls don't actually take uber often. It's one of the worst driving experiences... when compared to a Waymo or AV people choose the Waymo over uber 100% of the time. Many of the uber drivers in LA have never driven here before... $UBER
@Crisb2708@AustinsStocks Yeah distribution is the moat
They hated google
And Microsoft
And uber
And meta
The first 2 jumped, now its time for the last 2
A few thoughts on the $META AI model's progress, because I think it is significant.
1. It does seem that $META has now leapfrogged $GOOGL in model quality when it comes to Muse 1.2 for many use cases, which is very surprising given the timeframe.
2. This is still the "Muse Spark" family of models; $META already told us that bigger and more capable models (Watermelon) are coming. Given Muse Spark 1.2's performance already, the Watermelon family should be in the Fable category, which is impressive.
3. It does seem like $META is finally on a product scaling velocity curve (so the scaling foundations of their lab are set after 1 year of overhaul). And the shipping velocity is very good (3 releases in 4 months).
4. Given the recent rumored price hike of DeepSeek (if you use DeepSeek directly), it is clear that having enough compute to serve customers is critical. It doesn't help you if you have a great model, but most can't use it. $META is one of the few companies with compute capabilities comparable to, if not larger than, those of Anthropic or OpenAI.
Meta has released Muse Spark 1.2. It's their third release in four months and scores 54 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, significantly improving agentic knowledge work capabilities over prior releases and putting Meta next to SpaceXAI in a tie for third place amongst US labs
Muse Spark 1.2 (xhigh) lands at 54, up 3 points from Muse Spark 1.1 (51) and 11 points from Muse Spark 1.0 (43, April). It enters effectively tied with GPT-5.5 (xhigh, 55) and Grok 4.5 (high, 54), narrowly behind current frontier models Claude Opus 5 (max, 61), Claude Fable 5 (max w/ fallback, 60), GPT-5.6 Sol (max, 59), and Kimi K3 (max, 57)
Congratulations to @AIatMeta, @finkd, and @alexandr_wang on the release!
Key Takeaways:
➤ Muse Spark 1.2 gets closer to the frontier on agentic knowledge work. At Muse Spark 1.1's launch, we noted agentic knowledge work as its clearest gap; Muse Spark 1.2's gains help to close this. Its GDPval-AA v2 Elo rose 260 points to 1631, #5 among all models we have benchmarked and ahead of Claude Opus 4.8 (max, 1588). Terminal-Bench 2.1 gained 2 points (78% to 80%), and Tau3-Bench Banking rose 2 points (25% to 27%)
➤ Among the most cost-efficient models at its intelligence level. Muse Spark 1.2 costs $0.40 per Intelligence Index task at Meta's unchanged $1.25/$4.25 per 1M token pricing, with only Grok 4.5 (high, $0.37) and GPT-5.6 Sol (medium, $0.39) cheaper in its intelligence cluster - GPT-5.6 Terra (max, $0.51), Kimi K3 (max, $0.86), and GPT-5.5 (xhigh, $1.18) all cost more per task. The cost increase over Muse Spark 1.1 ($0.29 per task) is driven by increased token usage per Intelligence Index task
➤ AA-Omniscience abstention rate increases. The score rose from 18 to 22 as the hallucination rate fell 10 points (38% to 28%) and the attempt rate dropped from 82% to 67%. This heavy abstention (not answering questions when unsure) now drives both the low hallucination rate and a lower accuracy (41% to 38%)
➤ Scientific Reasoning results remain largely unchanged. CritPt notably gained 3 points (15% to 18%), while SciCode fell 2 points (58% to 56%), and Humanity's Last Exam fell 1 point (45% to 44%)
Other model details:
➤ Context window: 1M tokens, unchanged from Muse Spark 1.1
➤ Pricing: unchanged from Muse Spark 1.1: $1.25/$4.25 per 1M input/output tokens, with cache hits discounted to $0.15 per 1M
➤ Availability: Meta's first-party API at launch
The adoption of DIGITAL AI has already taken 3-4 years and many businesses still don’t know how to implement it effectively…
Physical AI (robotaxis) have WAY MORE challenges and will take longer to implement/scale… (especially if you try to own the whole stack)
And yet the market is acting like Uber has already lost…
In 2025, it was Tesla
In 2026, it is Waymo
In 2027, the market will wake up
$UBER $GOOG $TSLA
Markets like simplifying end states from tech disruptions. The reality is that the autonomous transition is only getting started and there's a long way to go, and Uber is investing strategically against the opportunity.
Fun fact: Uber fulfills nearly 500 trips every single second. In other words, it takes Uber only about 17 minutes/13 minutes to complete more trips than the trips fulfilled by the current largest deployments in the US and China in a whole week.
To be more precise, if you assign $DASH's valuation (42x '27e earnings) to $UBER Eats, then $UBER's Mobility business is trading for 2x earnings today.
@Jason@BillAckman@dkhos you might find this interesting.
Uber Delivery just reported 25% YoY growth with a 3.8% segment operating income margin (burdened for stock based compensation) - better than peers, with significant growth acceleration in the US and category position gains in all 10 of our largest international markets.
And, Mobility grew 20% with a 7.6% segment operating income margin (2X Delivery).
@drayinvests I don’t think it’s about price
I think it’s about time
I don’t think it will substantially rebound until late 2026/early 2027 when it shows reaccelerating of the core brand…
I could be wrong, but I don’t see a bounce until then