TickerTapX

Stocks, Futures & Crypto. AI + macro. 🇩🇪🇺🇸 $KEEL $APLD $SOFI

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the future is here

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@Stevendiaz Its gonna be fine, this is the most friendly "dilution" for shareholders and long term beneficiary for the company . They just need to execute. Words could have been chosen wiser thats all...

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$KEEL just announced a $350M convertible notes offering. Here’s the full picture.

Up to $408M with the greenshoe. Matures 2032. Conversion triggers at ~$11.40 - roughly double today’s price.

The bull case:
Capped calls offset dilution up to the conversion price. Proceeds go to long-lead equipment deposits and letters of credit - you don’t order gear speculatively. This is construction acceleration capital. Same playbook as October 2025. Raise cheap debt when momentum is strong, not when you’re desperate.

Total war chest after this raise: ~$883M.

The honest bear case:
This stock went from $0.70 to $6.60 in 12 months. If three leases sign and the stock re-rates toward peers - $11.40 (estimate on todays price) is reachable. At that point dilution kicks in. The greenshoe adds another $58M of exposure on top.

Today’s sell-off is also partly mechanical - convertible arb traders short the stock and buy the notes simultaneously. That’s standard, not fundamental.

My issue:

On the Q1 earnings call Ben was asked directly about equity issuance. His answer:

“We have no reason or no need to issue equity right now. We’ve got everything that we need.”

Convertible notes aren’t equity today - but they become equity if the stock doubles. That’s a meaningful caveat that wasn’t communicated clearly on the call. I don’t love the sway from that statement three weeks later. Retail investors deserved more transparency on this possibility.

Management has earned trust through execution. But trust cuts both ways - and this one warrants watching closely.

The bottom line:

Minimal dilution below $11.40. Real dilution above it. Proceeds accelerating construction is genuinely bullish. The timing of the communication is not.

$KEEL 🏗️⚡

DYOR. NFA.

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@theholder20x @hashoveride lfg

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@WOLF_TradingX

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@CKCapitalxx @SupremeFireCPG Agreed

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@CCanuck1 Its gonna be fine as long they execute

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@Cicciozao This

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@MintzerMiguel @InvestwithMEH The key takeaway for me is that Keel is raising $350 million through convertible senior notes due 2032. So this is not an equity offering today, but it can become equity dilution later if the notes convert into shares.

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The operational and regulatory execution has been real and documented in public government records not press releases
The lease is the remaining proof point. You’re right to hold them to it. CEO went on the record three leases by year end. Communication could have been better and its surely not increasing trust.

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@MintzerMiguel @InvestwithMEH “cap targeted at a 100% premium to the last reported sale price of Keel’s common stock on Nasdaq on the date of pricing” ,
so that would be around 11.40/share if I understand it correct.

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Fair to push back on the lease timeline no signed lease is the legitimate bear case. But “only missed deadlines” isn’t accurate either. The operational and regulatory execution has been substantial. The lease is the remaining proof point and that’s exactly what the market is waiting for.

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@InvestwithMEH Yeah the CEO already has not the best reputation. Its really not that hard to put some thought and effort into proper communication and keep shareholders informed and happy instead of inflicting doubt…

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@jimcramer The “never sell Bitcoin” guy

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@FunOfInvesting Finally 🤣

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@realjoncooper

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@MintzerMiguel I agree, communication is poor and not building trust.

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@InvestwithMEH Same.

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@InvestwithMEH Exactly, I have no problem with the offering, just with the way of the communication. In fact i was surprised about the the comment regarding dilution during the call, that stated different. Nevertheless its part of the business as all other peers doing the same….

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@sgpurdie I have no problem with the offering, just with the way of the communication. In fact i was surprised about the the comment regarding dilution during the call, that stated different. Nevertheless its part of the business as all other peers doing the same….

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@TheStockDon I have no problem with the offering, just with the way of the communication. In fact i was surprised about the the comment regarding dilution during the call, that stated different. Nevertheless its part of the business as all other peers doing the same….