TickerTracker

Prediction market data discovery tools for researchers, reporters, and analysts.

[Dustin Gouker @DustinGouker]

Fascinating data from @Eric_Ramsey @TickerTracker_:

Combos with 20 or more legs at Kalshi went from 3.5% of the total in July to 17% in September, and the average combo contract went from 8 legs to 13 over that span.

About 10% of all combos traded in September settled Yes, a hit rate that falls to 2.7% for combos with 10+ legs and 1.5% for those with 20 or more. Across the combos with 100 or more legs, two have settled Yes and 5,272 settled No.

More in this morning’s Event Horizon.

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

The three NBA tipoff games on Tuesday night produced a combined $114 million in trading volume on Kalshi -- about as much as three typical NFL games.

OKC/SAS > PHI/NYK by a smidge.

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

🏆 Centipede Combo of the Week(™) on Kalshi

- 320 legs
- $0.16 to win $106 (~+65000)
- 26 misses (5 voids; 13 still open)

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

Saturday was another record day of volume for Kalshi and its first above $4 billion -- almost 20x bigger than the same Saturday last year.

[Primo Data @primo_data]

Polymarket US crypto volume doing well since 15-min up/down launch < 30d ago 📈

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

Biggest combos of the weekend, by number of legs:

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

🏆 Centipede Combo of the Week(™) on Kalshi

- 453 legs
- $47 to win $1,462 (~+3000)
- 27 misses (7 voids; 28 still open)
- Lost before the 1 p.m. games kicked off

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

Kalshi came close to $8 billion by itself, with back-to-back volume records on Saturday and Sunday for the fourth time this season.

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

More than $10 billion was traded across tracked prediction market platforms this weekend -- up 11% from last weekend to a new two-day record.

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

https://t.co/uuK6v9WGry

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

Sydney Sweeney and a 21+ pledge: Novig’s fearless path to $2 billion (via @nextpredictio)

https://t.co/mZMkS61HHU

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

There were 232,747 individual combos of 21+ legs:
- 2,446 won (1.05%)
- 4,479 still open

The hit rate for the 51-100 bucket (1.55%) was higher than the 31-50 bucket (0.57%), but skewed by a fairly popular 71-leg multi-sport combo that came in.

Nothing over 100 legs hit (0 for 711).

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

Kalshi recorded a record $3.7 billion in Sunday volume and more than $7.1 billion for the weekend.

Sports + combos made up 91% of volume on both days.

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

@Kalshi And the Centipede Combo of the Week award goes to...

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

Football trading Saturday + Sunday combined:
- Straight markets: $897 million (13% of total)
- Football combos: $3.1 billion (44%)
- Total: $4.0 billion (56%)

Football legs made up 63% of all combos for the weekend. Soccer was #2 at 14%.

About 8% of combo contracts had more than 20 legs.

[Dustin Gouker @DustinGouker]

I do a weekly podcast about prediction markets at The Event Horizon, and I am terrible at sharing clips from. This week, talked PM volume with @Eric_Ramsey of @TickerTracker_. Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

Sunday on Kalshi: Another volume record at $3.04 billion, just a few bucks ahead of Saturday. It is the sixth time Kalshi has bested its own single-day record in September.

Rams/Broncos moves to #2 on the list of NFL regular-season games, behind only Colts/Chiefs in Week 2.

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

Kalshi set another single-day volume record yesterday, its second straight Saturday above $3 billion.

Sports + Combos were >90% of the total.

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

@ResolveMarkets 🧐

[TickerTracker @TickerTracker_]

https://t.co/bnWuJotxNN

[Leo Adberg @LeoAdberg]

@TickerTracker_ Nah, Kalshi has a fee accumulator to prevent rounding-up from costing you more than 1c per market. So it's maybe losing $26.13/day not $432/day. Likely just someone farming volume for a higher rate limit tier if I had to guess!