Rohit Arvind

IPOs | Swing Trader | Opportunistic Investor

Dissecting market while having Hot Chocolate is my kinda day 😋

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

₹52,878 crore.

That is what Fairfax is paying for 60.72% of IDBI Bank.

The Cabinet has approved the sale. Government and LIC are selling their stakes at ₹81 per share. After the deal, the government will hold 15% and LIC 19%. It is the largest FDI in India’s financial sector so far.

The interesting part is what comes next.

Prem Watsa has said Fairfax plans to build a broader financial-services platform around IDBI- bringing in insurance (Digit) and wealth management/investment banking (IIFL Capital), subject to approvals. Current management stays. Employee benefits stay.

IDBI is no longer just another privatisation.

It is being positioned as Fairfax’s India financial-services platform.

#IDBIBank #Fairfax #PremWatsa #Banking #FDI #Privatisation #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #Sebi

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

Checking the ethanol diversion policy and sugar stocks reaction.

India needs more sugar, so the government is taking sugar-based ethanol out of the 2026-27 equation.

Oil marketing companies issued a quantity-bid tender on 16 October for about 1,100 crore litres of ethanol for the supply year running November 2026 to October 2027. The tender states that the government has directed sugar diversion for ethanol to be reduced to zero. No offers have been sought for ethanol made from sugarcane juice, sugar, sugar syrup or B-heavy molasses.

Allowed feedstocks include maize, damaged food grains, surplus rice from FCI, C-heavy molasses and other materials permitted under the National Policy on Biofuels. The move follows concerns over domestic sugar availability and prices, with weaker rainfall in key cane states.

Sugar stocks reacted immediately. On 19 October, shares of Shree Renuka Sugars, Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar, Dwarikesh Sugar, Dhampur Sugar, Dalmia Bharat Sugar, Balrampur Chini, EID Parry and Triveni Engineering fell roughly 2–7% in early trade.

The policy logic is straightforward: less cane into ethanol, more cane into sugar. For mills that spent the last few years building ethanol capacity around juice, syrup and B-heavy molasses, the open question is what those plants earn when the higher-margin sugar-based routes are closed for this supply year. C-heavy molasses remains eligible, and grain-based routes are still open, but the flexibility mills had to switch between sugar and ethanol has narrowed.

The E20 blending target continues. The feedstock mix does not.

#Sugar #Ethanol #OMCs #BalrampurChini #EIDParry #Triveni #SugarStocks #Biofuels #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #SEBI

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

@Qwerty1514005 I think there's more to it in reality

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

India’s current-account deficit narrowed to $5.2 billion in August, from $6.1 billion a year earlier.

RBI data shows the merchandise trade deficit eased to $26.6 billion and the services surplus rose to $16.5 billion. Net transfers reached $12.8 billion.

The larger number is the overall balance of payments. India posted a $45.4 billion surplus in August, against a $5.6 billion deficit a year earlier. The capital account recorded a $50.6 billion surplus, driven by banking capital inflows of $64.7 billion. Net NRI deposits alone were $83 billion, linked to the RBI’s FCNR(B) window that closed on 31 August.

A current-account deficit is not the full external equation. It is the trade balance plus services, remittances and capital flows. In August the capital-account surplus more than offset the deficit, producing a large overall surplus.

The headline is the $5.2 billion deficit. The real story is where the other dollars came from.

#CurrentAccount #BalanceOfPayments #RBI #NRIDeposits #FCNR #CapitalFlows #Forex #IndianEconomy #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #SEBI

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

India’s banking system now has more than ₹230 lakh crore of outstanding credit.

RBI data for the fortnight ended 30 September 2026:

• Bank credit: ₹230 trillion, up 19.38% YoY
• Deposits: ₹283.95 trillion, up 17.83% YoY

Credit is growing faster than deposits. The credit-to-deposit ratio is around 81%. Banks added ₹16.35 trillion of credit in the first half of FY27, roughly 1.6 times the amount added in the same period a year earlier. Deposit growth has also been supported by FCNR(B) inflows under the RBI’s concessional swap window, but it is still trailing credit.

The credit cycle is running hot. Banks ultimately need funding to keep lending. When credit outpaces deposits, they have to work harder for liabilities, manage liquidity more tightly, and compete more aggressively for deposits. The recent repo rate increase to 5.50% adds to funding-cost pressure.

This is not only a banking-stocks story. It is a story about household savings, bank funding, lending rates, credit growth and system liquidity. India’s next financial cycle may be decided as much by the race for deposits as by the race for borrowers.

#BankCredit #Deposits #RBI #CreditDepositRatio #Banking #Liquidity #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #SEBI

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

Banks can’t park deposit money in post office schemes.

Those products are for individuals, have investment caps, and are not eligible assets under RBI rules. Banks must invest deposits in approved instruments (government securities, other banks, etc.) that also meet liquidity and asset-liability requirements.

The rate difference exists because the products, eligible investors, and regulations are different. It isn’t an arbitrage banks can take.

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

@lavanyadeepak @padhucfp Do share the name if you found out :)

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

@MrTalkStock Exactly.. it should trade at least 10% discount to Airtel's FY28 EV/EBITDA valuation.

The entire market was euphoric when Bajaj Housing Finance listed at exorbitant premium and began buying & giving stretched targets., only to realize the stock hitting new bottoms 😁

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

RBI is examining a change in how Gold ETFs are structured.

The proposal is that ETFs should hold tradable gold receipts instead of physical gold. Existing schemes would be replaced by new ones built around these receipts. RBI would import and hold the metal required for redemptions, which would be settled in rupees. The stated objective is to reduce the continuous import demand generated by ETF inflows and ease pressure on the rupee, while still providing gold-linked returns.

This remains a proposal. The Finance Ministry, RBI and SEBI have not confirmed it. Domestic gold prices would continue to track international prices plus duty, currency movement and local premiums, but the direct link between fresh ETF money and fresh physical imports would weaken.

The more an instrument is redesigned by regulation, the greater the risk that the final product differs from what investors originally bought. Physical gold held outside the financial system is not dependent on a scheme document, a receipt or a regulator’s interpretation of redemption rights.

Physical gold remains the cleanest store of value.

#Gold #GoldETF #RBI #PhysicalGold #GoldImports #Forex #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #SEBI

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

A ₹2 crore fixed deposit in a bank is not ₹2 crore of protected money.

Most people treat a bank deposit as the safest place their money can sit. That assumption only holds up to a point.

If a bank fails, the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) pays a maximum of ₹5 lakh per depositor per bank. The limit covers principal and interest together and applies across every account you hold with that bank- savings, current, recurring deposits and fixed deposits are all aggregated.

So the ₹2 crore FD returns ₹5 lakh from DICGC. The remaining ₹1.95 crore becomes an unsecured claim against the bank’s assets.

In a liquidation the priority order is broadly:

1. Liquidation expenses and statutory dues
2. Secured creditors
3. Employee claims (within prescribed limits)
4. Depositors for the uninsured balance
5. Other unsecured creditors
6. Shareholders

You retain a claim on the residual assets, but recovery is neither automatic nor full. It depends on what the assets realise after higher-priority claims are settled, and the process can take years.

No mechanism currently insures the full amount above ₹5 lakh inside a single bank. The practical way to reduce exposure is to spread deposits across different banks. Each bank carries its own ₹5 lakh cover. Holding money in ten separate banks can protect ₹50 lakh; holding it in twenty can protect ₹1 crore. Joint accounts structured in different rights and capacities can add limited extra cover within one bank, but diversification across banks remains the cleaner approach.

Bank deposits are protected up to ₹5 lakh. Beyond that number, they are simply a claim.

#BankDeposits #DICGC #FixedDeposits #DepositInsurance #PersonalFinance #RiskManagement #Banking #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #SEBI

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

Jio didn’t just talk about serving customers. It actually changed what Indians pay for data.

In 2016 the average was around ₹228 a GB and most people were using a couple of hundred MB a month. Now Jio’s realized price is roughly ₹4.9 a GB and the average user is consuming 43-44 GB a month. That is why 530 million people are on the network. The drop in price and the jump in usage are the actual consumer benefit.

On the employment side, Reliance’s group headcount is about 4.2 lakh people. Jio Platforms alone has roughly 75,000. Employee benefits across the group were over ₹30,000 crore last year. Most of those jobs and that pay sit in India- retail and telecom, not just a handful of senior roles.

Competition is fine. The measurable part is that data got a lot cheaper for users and a large number of Indian employees got paid. That is what the numbers show.

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

So I get to see flying cars in this lifetime..!?

NO WAY...

[Tesla @Tesla]

Real life, baby

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

Supreme Court has upheld the quashing of YES Bank’s ₹8,415 crore AT1 bond write-off.

The bonds were written down to zero in March 2020 as part of the bank’s reconstruction. Bombay High Court had set that write-off aside in January 2023. On 15 October the Supreme Court dismissed appeals by YES Bank, RBI and the Centre, saying it saw no reason to interfere. The administrator lacked the authority to extinguish the bonds because the final reconstruction scheme did not specifically provide for it. The draft scheme had included a write-down clause; the final one did not.

YES Bank shares fell as much as ~14.5% after the verdict. The ₹8,415 crore principal (issued in 2016 and 2017) is roughly 2.5 years of the bank’s FY26 net profit of ₹3,476 crore. Accrued coupons would add further.

AT1 bonds are designed to absorb losses when a bank is in trouble. This ruling turns on process: the write-off had to be authorised by the final scheme, not assumed by the administrator after the fact. Individual investors had also been sold these instruments despite the complexity and risk. SEBI had earlier penalised the bank on mis-selling grounds.

The number is ₹8,415 crore. The larger question is how certain the loss-absorption feature of AT1 bonds actually is when the resolution process itself is challenged and upheld against the write-off.

#YESBank #AT1Bonds #SupremeCourt #Banking #RBI #BankCapital #Bondholders #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #SEBI

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

Cabinet has cleared Fairfax to take control of IDBI Bank.

The numbers, from the CCEA approval on 14 October:

• Stake acquired: 60.72%
• Consideration: ₹52,878 crore
• Price: ₹81 per share (above the ₹75.99 benchmark valuation)
• From government: 30.48% (residual left: 15%)
• From LIC: 30.24% (residual left: 19%)

Government + LIC together retain 34%. The deal is framed as strategic restructuring, not a full exit. It is the largest FDI in India’s financial sector so far. Completion is targeted this fiscal.

Fairfax already holds ~40% in CSB Bank. RBI rules do not allow one promoter to hold two banking licences. Within two years of the share purchase agreement, Fairfax must either merge CSB with IDBI or exit one of them. Prem Watsa has confirmed the two-year window and the two options.

LIC will also need to bring its residual stake down to 15% within two years. Existing employee service conditions are to be protected. Brand and customer relationships are to be retained for at least three years.

This is not a clean private-to-private transfer. It is control moving from government/LIC to a private financial group that already has banking exposure in India, with a forced decision on CSB still ahead. The size of the cheque is one story. What happens to the two banks in the next two years is the other.

#IDBIBank #Fairfax #PremWatsa #CSBBank #Banking #FDI #Privatisation #LIC #RBI #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #SEBI

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

@PulkitA30298377 Yes, have heard the same from my circle.

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

The speculator in me thinks, all this is setup for the course of someone probably raising the largest ever funds in history of India.

Jugjugg Jeeyo..

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

INDIA FINANCE MINISTER SAYS HEALTHY TO HAVE DEBATE ON STT

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

₹120 crore of Fusion CX shares changed hands at the top of the IPO band, days before the issue opens.

The transfers, completed 9 October:

• Shares sold: 41.52 lakh
• Price: ₹289 per share (upper end of the ₹275–289 band)
• Value: ~₹120 crore
• Stake: 3.19% of pre-offer equity (fully diluted)

Buyers included Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance (~₹50 crore), Ashish Kacholia (~₹35 crore, personal + Bengal Finance), and Mukul Agrawal-backed Sanshi Fund-I (~₹25 crore). Sellers were the promoter entities PNS Business and Rasish Consultants.

This was secondary. The money went to existing shareholders, not into the company.

The IPO itself is ₹702 crore (₹500 crore fresh + ₹202 crore OFS from the same promoter entities). It opens 14 October, closes 16 October. At ₹289 the implied valuation is ~₹4,170–4,200 crore. Promoter holding is expected to fall to ~77% post-issue at the upper end.

The names draw attention. The structure is the more useful part: known investors bought at the same price public investors will be offered, from promoters who are also selling in the OFS. What returns those sellers are locking in, and how the secondary price sits against the business, is the open question.

#FusionCX #IPO #PreIPO #AshishKacholia #MukulAgrawal #KotakLife #SecondarySale #OFS #IndianStockMarket #Nifty50 #SEBI

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

Fair point on scale math.

Juspay itself is pointing at AI/GPU and international spend as the reason for the swing, with core India payments still profitable and adjusted EBITDA positive at ₹33 Cr. Whether those costs stay temporary or start looking like structural pressure on take rates is the part that still needs more numbers.

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

Juspay grew revenue ~29% and still flipped from profit to loss.

The numbers, from company filings and management:

• FY26 revenue: ₹664 crore
• FY25 revenue: ₹514 crore
• FY26 net loss: ₹90 crore
• FY25 net profit: ₹62 crore
• FY26 adjusted EBITDA: ₹33 crore (ex-ESOP)
• FY23 revenue: ₹213 crore → ~46% three-year CAGR

It processes ~400 million transactions a day and claims annualised TPV above $1 trillion. International revenue more than doubled but is still low-single-digit share of the total. Core India payments stayed profitable. The swing came from AI spend (Xyne, Genius and related GPU infrastructure) and overseas expansion. Management says the AI investments should start showing in FY27 revenue and that it plans to return to profit then. It is also stepping up GPU capacity further.

Revenue growth of 29% with positive adjusted EBITDA is not the same as a clean profit. The ₹90 crore loss is the cost of building the next products while the core payments engine keeps running. Whether those AI and international costs stay temporary is the only question that matters from here. For an unlisted company, the quality and duration of that spend matter as much as the top-line rate.

#Juspay #Fintech #Payments #AI #SaaS #Unlisted #Startups #IndiaTech #IPO #Nifty50 #SEBI #IndianStockMarket

[Rohit Arvind @Ticker_Theory]

Having Net-Worth of 50x of my current annual income/inflow is my first milestone..! 🤞